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San Diego Chargers Week 12 Analysis

November 22, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Michael Egnak

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS

The San Diego Chargers (8-2) took a big step toward winning the American Football Conference West when they came from behind to defeat the Denver Broncos 35-27 at Invesco Field in Week 11. It was the second straight week that the Chargers overcame a deficit of 17 or more points and won. After a couple of nail-biting contests, San Diego might find the competition a little less stiff when it hosts the Oakland Raiders in Week 12 (2-8). Oakland fell just off its own comeback attempt Sunday, when a last-minute pass to the end zone was intercepted, clinching a 17-13 victory for the Kansas City Chiefs.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback Philip Rivers remains poised week in and week out. Sunday he was 19-for-26 for 222 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. In the past four weeks he has completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 244 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions per game. Despite his recent success against Oakland, Rivers is a weak play as a low-end No. 1 or injury replacement.

That's because the Raiders have quietly made strides on defense, especially versus the pass. In the past four weeks, quarterbacks have passed for 197 yards, one touchdown and 1.8 interceptions per game against this team.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

If star tailback LaDainian Tomlinson was already the leading candidate for Most Valuable Player, he certainly didn't hurt his campaign Sunday. He rushed for 105 yards and three touchdowns; he added another three catches, 74 yards and one score receiving. In the past four weeks the Chargers have utilized LT 26 times per game (46 percent), including 5.5 times per game in the red zone (60 percent) and 1.8 times per game inside the 5. He has turned that into 141 rushing yards, 51 receiving yards, 3.8 receptions and 3.5 total touchdowns per game. If you bench LT in any week, especially against the Raiders, then you'd just be crazy.

Backup halfback Michael Turner rushed four times for 12 yards against Denver. In the past four weeks San Diego has utilized him three times per game (5.4 percent), including 0.5 times per game in the red zone (5.4 percent) and 0.3 times per game inside the 5. Turner has taken his limited chances and averaged 16 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game in that time. His greatest value is as a backup to LT at this point. Because he doesn't see the ball enough, he is a weak play and should be benched against the Raiders.

Fullback Lorenzo Neal rushed three times for seven yards and caught one ball for five yards Sunday. The team has only utilized him 2.5 times per game (4.5 percent), including 0.3 times per game in the red zone (2.7 percent), in the last four games. He has averaged 11 total yards per game in that time. He is a weak play and should not be on your roster.

The Raiders have given up 121 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards, four receptions and one total touchdown per game to the running back position since Week 8.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

As long as it's the LT show, the receivers don't figure to play a huge role in the offense. Take No. 1 wide receiver Keenan McCardell. Against the Broncos he caught only one pass for six yards. In the past four weeks the Chargers have targeted him four times per game (7.2 percent), without a look in the red zone. He has averaged 2.5 receptions and 35 yards in that time, and he hasn't scored this season. McCardell is a weak play this weekend and shouldn't leave your bench.

No. 2 receiver Eric Parker caught four passes for 42 yards this past weekend. The Chargers have targeted him five times per game (9.0 percent), including 0.8 times per game in the red zone (8.1 percent), in the past four weeks. During that stretch he has caught 3.5 passes for 44 yards per game. Parker is also a weak play and should stay on your bench.

Wide receiver Malcom Floyd has emerged as a solid deep threat and red zone target in his limited opportunities with the Chargers. Sunday he caught only one pass for seven yards, though. In the past four weeks he has averaged 2.3 receptions, 32 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Since Week 8 the team has targeted him 3.8 times (6.8 percent), including 0.3 times in the red zone (2.7 percent), per game. Against the Raiders Floyd is a weak play as well and should not leave your bench.

No. 4 wideout Vincent Jackson caught three balls for 39 yards and a score against Denver. In the past four weeks the team has targeted him just 2.3 times per game (4.1 percent), including 0.3 times per game in the red zone (2.7 percent) and 0.3 times per game inside the 5. He has averaged 1.3 catches, 17 yards and 0.3 touchdowns during that span. He is a weak play and, despite his solid effort Sunday, should stay on your league's waiver wire.

The Raiders have put the clamps on receivers lately, giving up 11 receptions, 147 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position since Week 8.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

LT has even reduced studly tight end Antonio Gates to a sideshow act in recent times. Sunday Gates had five catches for 48 yards. The team has targeted him 6.3 times per game (11 percent), including 0.8 times per game in the red zone (8.1 percent), in the past four weeks. During that stretch Gates has notched 4.3 receptions and 51 yards per game. He hasn't scored since Week 7. Gates is a weak play against Oakland, but he is still worth a start as your No. 1 tight end.

Tight end Brandon Manumaleuna's had just one catch for one yard Sunday. He has tallied 0.8 receptions, 3.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game since Week 8. The strength of his numbers has essentially come from his two-touchdown showing in Week 10. San Diego has targeted Manumaleuna three times (1.4 percent), including twice in the red zone (5.4 percent) and once inside the five, total in that time period. He is a weak play and should stay on your bench if you happen to own him.

In the past four weeks the Raiders have given up only 3.3 receptions and 25 yards per game, with no touchdowns, to tight ends.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Nate Kaeding hasn't had much of a chance to give fantasy owners some points lately, thanks to the offense's extreme efficiency in the last four weeks. In that time Kaeding has attempted five extra points and just 0.5 field goals per game. He hasn't missed a kick since Week 8, allowing him to average 6.5 kicking points per game. Kaeding is a strong play in Week 12, so he should serve you well as your No. 1 kicker.

Since Week 8 Oakland has watched opposing place kickers attempt 1.5 extra points and 1.8 field goals per game against them. Those booters have missed nary a kick, giving them 6.8 kicking points per game in that span.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Chargers used to have a strong defense backing the team, but now it's the offense that continuously must bail this unit out. Since Week 8 the defense has allowed 28 offensive points, 297 passing yards and 118 rushing yards per game. They have notched three sacks, 0.8 fumble recoveries and 0.5 interceptions per game in that time. During that stretch the Chargers also have one defensive touchdown and one special teams score. San Diego is missing some key components on defense right now, but that made them an unreliable fantasy play recently. Despite what looks like an attractive matchup against the hapless Raiders, San Diego is not more than a low-end No. 1 defense. You should strongly consider benching San Diego and finding a defense with a better situation or matchup for this week.

Oakland welcomed quarterback Aaron Brooks back to the starting lineup in Week 11. He had been out since Week 2 with a pectoral muscle injury. Unfortunately for the team, running back LaMont Jordan (knee) suffered a torn medial collateral ligament in the same game and is out for the season. Running back Justin Fargas becomes the team's primary ball carrier. In the past four weeks, the Raiders offense has only mustered 8.5 points, 156 passing yards and 81 rushing yards per game. They have also given up 4.8 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.5 interceptions per game to defenses since Week 8.