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Pittsburgh Steelers Week 17 Analysis

December 28, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) might not have the postseason to play for this week, but with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) they can knock them out of playoff contention. That alone should get them motivated for their Week 17 game, but they are also coming off a 31-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens (12-3) in Week 16. The Bengals blew an extra point with less than a minute to go last week as they fell to the Denver Broncos (9-6) 24-23 in Week 16. They have one of the most porous defenses in the league, especially in pass defense, which means a lot of Steelers players should be played this week.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be looking to put this season behind him as he has suffered numerous distractions off the field, as well as poor play on it. He finished last week's game 15-for-31 with one touchdown and two interceptions. Over the past four weeks, Roethlisberger is averaging 176 passing yards, 1.8 total touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game. His numbers might seem a bit pedestrian, but he has a great matchup against the Bengals this week. In his Week 3 game against them, Roethlisberger struggled, going 18 of 39 with 208 passing yards and three interceptions. He comes ranked as the top overall fantasy quarterback this week and is a strong play.

The Bengals are allowing 222 passing yards, two touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

Running back Willie Parker had one of his best games of the season when he faced the Bengals in Week 3, as he rushed the ball 31 times for 133 yards and two touchdowns. If he can get anywhere close to that it will be a great improvement off his Week 16 totals. Against the Ravens, he ran the ball 13 times for just 29 yards. Over the past four weeks, Parker is averaging 111 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is being utilized 24 times (35 percent) per game, with 3.8 (33 percent) coming in the red zone and 0.8 inside the 5. The Bengals run defense has been solid over the past four weeks, although that could be because teams have been able to pass on them easily. Parker comes ranked as a No. 2 running back this week, and he is a weak play.

Running back Najeh Davenport was brought in to be the team's short-yardage back, and that is shown by the type of utilizations he is getting. Over the past four weeks, Davenport is being utilized 10 times (15 percent) per game; however, 3.8 (31 percent) are coming in the red zone and 0.3 inside the 5. In that period, Davenport is also averaging 21 rushing yards, 19 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Davenport has value as a No. 3 or injury replacement this week, although he is a weak play.

With three utilizations (1.1 percent) each over the past four weeks, fullbacks Dan Kreider and John Kuhn shouldn't be used this week. Leave them on your bench.

The Bengals are allowing 79 rushing yards, 36 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

If Roethlisberger is expected to have a big day, wide receiver Hines Ward will likely be the one benefiting the most from that. Over the past four weeks (two games), Ward is averaging 69 receiving yards per game. He is being targeted 12 times (9.0 percent) per game in that time. In the two team's Week 3 matchup, Ward caught the ball twice for 17 yards. He remains Roethlisberger's favorite target and comes recommended as a No. 1 wide receiver and a strong play.

When Ward went out, wide receiver Santonio Holmes stepped up and moved into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 54 receiving yards per game, although he has failed to find the end zone. He is being targeted 7.5 times (11 percent) per game since Week 13, with 0.8 (6.6 percent) coming in the red zone. In his first career game against the Bengals in Week 3, Holmes caught three passes for 30 yards. He should be used this week as a No. 3 wide receiver and is a strong play.

Wide receiver Nate Washington has averaged an amazing 24 yards per catch over the past four weeks. He is also averaging just 42 yards per game and 0.3 touchdowns per game in that time. He is only being targeted 4.8 times (7.1 percent) per game, with one (2.2 percent) coming in the red zone and one inside the 5. His value this week is as an injury replacement. He is also a strong play.

Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson is averaging just 1.5 targets (2.2 percent) per game over the past four weeks, which is not good enough to land a spot in your starting lineup. Leave him on the bench this week.

With just one target in the past four weeks, wide receiver Walter Young should be benched this week.

The Bengals are allowing 156 receiving yards and 1.8 receiving touchdowns to this position per game over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

Tight end Heath Miller has not received as many targets outside of the red zone, but he seems to be Roethlisberger's favorite target once the team reaches the goal line. Last week, he caught the only touchdown pass of the game for the Steelers. Over the past four weeks, Miller is averaging only 16 yards per game, however, he also has two touchdowns in that time. He is being targeted just three times (4.5 percent) per game, but 1.3 (11 percent) are coming in the red zone and 0.5 inside the 5. His lack of receiving yards hurts his value, but he should catch at least one touchdown pass. In his last game against the Bengals this season, Miller caught three passes for 34 yards. This week, he should be used as an injury replacement at the position, although he is a weak play.

Despite only getting 0.5 targets (0.8 percent) per game over the past four weeks, tight end Jerame Tuman should be used as an injury replacement at the position. Part of that reason is being because he has made the most of his limited chances, catching two passes for 20 yards and one touchdown. As stated above, use him as an injury replacement at the position. He is also a weak play.

The Bengals are allowing 30 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Jeff Reed wasn't given much of a chance last week, as he only had one extra point attempt. Over the past four weeks, Reed is averaging 2.5 extra points (10-for-10) and 2.3 field goal attempts (7-for-9). This week, he should be used as a borderline No. 1 kicker.

The Bengals are allowing 2.3 extra point attempts and 1.5 field goal attempts to this position per game over the past four weeks.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

They might have lost their reputation as one of the most intimidating defenses this season; however, the Steelers defense has been one of the top fantasy defenses, especially over the past four weeks. They are allowing just 11 points, 233 passing yards and 69 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 2.5 sacks, two interceptions and 0.8 fumble recoveries per game. They will likely be looking to make amends for their 31-7 loss last week, so it could be a big game for them. Use them as a strong No. 1 defense this week.

The Bengals offense is averaging 20 points, 231 passing yards and 121 rushing yards per game since Week 13. They are also allowing two sacks, 1.3 interceptions and one fumble recovery per game in that time.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.