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Kansas City Chiefs Week 18 Analysis

January 4, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

With the Denver Broncos' (9-7) 26-23 overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers (7-9), it allowed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) to sneak into the playoffs. For their troubles, the Chiefs will get a first-round matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (12-4) and their porous run defense. It could be a big week for Chiefs running back Larry Johnson as he faces the worst run defense in the league. Johnson is just one of the Chiefs' fantasy starters this week, so without wasting anymore time, we'll get on to the matchups.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback Trent Green is slumping at the wrong time of the season, completing 14 of 21 passes for 181 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions last week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging only 173 passing yards, 0.8 touchdowns and 1.5 interceptions per game. Luckily for him he doesn't have to be the focal point of the offense. Because of his poor numbers since Week 14 (he ranks outside the top 25 in fantasy quarterbacks since then) and the matchup, Green is a weak play and should be benched this week.

The Colts are allowing 157 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions to this position per game over the past four weeks.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

As stated above, Johnson has been carrying the load for the Chiefs on offense. He set the NFL's single-season record for carries in a season this year with 416. Against the Jaguars last week, Johnson led the way, rushing 33 times for 138 yards and three touchdowns, along with five receptions for 22 yards. Over the past four weeks, Johnson is averaging 119 rushing yards, 8.8 receiving yards and one touchdown per game. He is being utilized an average of 31 times (45 percent) per game over the past four weeks, which includes 3.5 (49 percent) per game in the red zone and one per game inside the 5. Johnson comes ranked as one of the top running backs this week. He should be used as a No. 1 running back and is a strong play this week.

Running back Michael Bennett (ankle) was a game-time decision last week, and ended up getting two carries for 11 yards. His ankle appears to be fine, because he's not on the injury report. He has averaged 10 total yards per game in the past four weeks (three games). The team has utilized him 3.33 times per game (3.7 percent) during that stretch. He may be worth a gamble as a No. 3 back this week, given the matchup, but he's probably safer on your bench.

With Johnson getting the majority of the carries at running back, there is little left for his backups. Running back Dee Brown is averaging just 1.5 utilizations (2.2 percent) per game over the past four weeks. Those numbers mean he is a weak play and should be benched this week.

The Colts are allowing 199 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards per game to this position over the past four weeks. They are also allowing 1.8 rushing touchdowns and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game in that time.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver Eddie Kennison comes ranked as the top Chiefs wide receiver this week. Against the Jaguars last week, Kennison had a huge game, catching six passes for 144 yards and one touchdown. Over the past four weeks, Kennison is averaging 52 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is being targeted an average of 7.8 times (11 percent) per game since Week 14, which includes 1.3 times per game (18 percent) in the red zone. Kennison should be used as a No. 2 wide receiver this week, although he is a weak play.

After Kennison, there is a fairly large drop-off in fantasy production among the Chiefs' wide receivers. Next in the rankings is wide receiver Samie Parker. Parker caught only two passes for 29 yards last week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 44 receiving yards per game. Since Week 14, Parker is being targeted 4.8 times (7.0 percent) per game, with 0.5 times per game (7 percent) coming in the red zone. Parker should be used as a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver this week, and he is a weak play.

Wide receiver Dante' Hall is the only other Chiefs wide receiver with a target in the past four weeks. Last week, he was targeted twice, although he caught only one pass for nine yards. Over the past four weeks, Hall is averaging just 15 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. The diminutive receiver is also being targeted an average of 3.3 times (4.8 percent) per game since Week 14, with 0.5 per game (7.0 percent) coming in the red zone. He also has the only target inside the 5 for Chiefs wide receivers in that time. Hall should be used as only a bottom-tier No. 3 wide receiver at best this week, and he is a weak play.

The Colts are allowing 73 receiving yards and no touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

Tight end Tony Gonzalez could be playing his final game in a Chiefs uniform this week as he is a free agent at the end of this season. He wasn't much help last week as he caught only two passes for 21 yards. Over the past four weeks, Gonzalez is averaging 43 receiving yards per game. He is being targeted 6.3 times (9.2 percent) per game since Week 14, with one target per game (14 percent) coming in the red zone. Gonzalez comes ranked as a No. 1 tight end this week.

Tight end Kris Wilson is averaging only 2.3 targets (3.3 percent) per game over the past four weeks. He is not getting enough opportunities in this offense, nor will he with Gonzalez there, to warrant being played this week. He is a weak play and should sit on your bench.

The Colts are allowing 44 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Lawrence Tynes didn't have much to do last week aside from connect on all five of his extra point attempts, which he did. Over the past four weeks, Tynes is averaging 1.8 field goal attempts (6-for-7) and two extra point attempts (8-for-8) per game. Tynes comes ranked as one of the top place kickers this week. He should be used as a No. 1 kicker and is a strong play.

The Colts are allowing 3.5 field goal attempts (13-for-14) and 2.5 extra point attempts (10-for-10) to this position per game over the past four weeks.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Colts offense was among the top-ranked in the league this season, which could pose a problem for the Chiefs. However, they have played better this season than in seasons past. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed 20 offensive points, 228 passing yards and 146 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses. They are also averaging 2.3 sacks, 1.3 interceptions and one fumble recovery per game in that time. With a ball-control offense led by Johnson, they possess the type of offense that can keep the Colts' offense off the field. It can also force them to play catch-up football, which is something they rarely do. The Chiefs defense should be used as a No. 1 defensive team this week, and they are a strong play.

The Colts are averaging 26 offensive points, 271 passing yards and 94 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. They are also allowing 0.8 sacks, 0.3 interceptions and 0.5 fumbles lost per game to opposing defenses in that time.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.