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Kansas City Chiefs Week 15 Analysis

December 13, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Steven Kraser and Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs' playoff aspirations took a major blow, as Kansas City (7-6) dropped a decision to the Baltimore Ravens (10-3). This week, the Chiefs have an almost must-win situation on the road against a division rival and hottest team in the NFL at the moment, the San Diego Chargers (11-2). In a tough AFC, where 10 wins probably is a must to secure a playoff spot, the Chiefs will need to come up big against a San Diego team that has won seven straight games. Here's a look at the Chiefs' matchups this week.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback Trent Green has not exactly lit up football fields since his return from injury (concussion). Since Week 11 (four games), Green has averaged a pedestrian 185 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per contest during this time span. Green also threw one interception on average per game but completed a healthy 62.9 percent of his passes. Over the last four games of the season, Green will need to show that he still has deep ball capability while trying to jump start a Chiefs' offense that has scored a paltry 19 points per game during the past month. Known for its continuity on the offensive line in recent seasons, Kansas City allowed 2.5 sacks per game. For this week, going against a formidable Chargers' defense, Green is a weak play who should be sitting on your fantasy bench.

Since Week 11 (four games), the Chargers' defense intercepted 1.3 passes per contest, and was tough on opposing quarterbacks by allowing just 1.3 passing touchdowns and 186 passing yards per game. The defense caused havoc as well in the sack department (3.5 per outing), also causing two lost fumbles by quarterbacks.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

Running back Larry Johnson is threatening to break former Atlanta Falcons running back Jamal Anderson's NFL record for most carries in a season (410). Since Week 11 (four games), Johnson was utilized 31 times per outing (a healthy 51 percent of the offensive plays) while putting up 135 rushing yards per game. Johnson, however, scored just 0.8 touchdowns per outing during this time period, which is surprising because he averaged a busy 5.8 red zone plays per game (four plays in total within the 5-yard line). For Week 15, view Johnson as a low No. 1 or high No. 2 running back. In the teams' first meeting of the season, Johnson scored twice and rushed for 132 yards.

Running back Michael Bennett continues to be a competent fill-in while giving Johnson a breather. Recording 8.4 yards per rush, Bennett averaged 30 rushing and 19 receiving yards per contest since Week 11, accounting for 9.6 percent of the offensive plays. Bennett, however, did not see any action within the red zone. He should stay on your bench, unless you need an injury replacement.

During the past month (four games), opposing running backs averaged 4.0 yards per carry against San Diego but scored just one rushing touchdown per outing. Registering a pedestrian 88 rushing yards per game, running backs also put up 22 receiving yards on average.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver Eddie Kennison scored a paltry 0.3 touchdowns per game since Week 11 (four games), while recording 2.8 receptions and 46 receiving yards per outing. Kennison has still been displaying big play ability (17 yards per reception), but he was targeted just 5.8 times per game (9.6 percent) while seeing one play per game within the red zone (9.7 percent). In the first meeting with San Diego this season, Kennison scored once but was held to 30 receiving yards. He is a weak play as a low No. 3 or injury replacement.

In the past four weeks wide receiver Samie Parker has caught three passes per game for 49 yards per game. The team has targeted him 4.8 times per game (7.9 percent) - not at all in the red zone - in that time. In the teams' first meeting Parker caught only one ball for 15 yards. This week he's a weak play and should only be used as an injury replacement.

Wide receiver Dante' Hall has been targeted 2.5 times per game (4.2 percent), including 0.5 times per game in the red zone (4.9 percent) and 0.3 times per game inside the 5, in the past four weeks. He has turned that into 1.5 receptions, 15 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Earlier this season against San Diego, Hall caught one pass for nine yards. Hall is used so rarely that most times he's a weak play that should remain on your bench. That's the case this week, too.

Since Week 11 San Diego has allowed receivers to average 6.5 receptions, 85 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

Tight end Tony Gonzalez has served fantasy owners pretty well in the past four weeks (three games). During that stretch he has averaged 5.33 catches, 57 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. In that time the team has targeted him seven times per game (8.7 percent), including once per game in the red zone (7.3 percent). Gonzalez piled up 138 yards on six receptions in his first meeting of 2006 with the Chargers. This time around he's a strong play and a No. 1 tight end.

Tight end Kris Wilson has only averaged 0.8 receptions, four yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game in the past four weeks. The team has targeted him twice per game (3.3 percent), including 0.8 times per game in the red zone (7.3 percent), during that span. He caught two passes for 13 yards and a score in the first game between these two teams. He's a weak play and should be benched against San Diego.

Since Week 11 the Chargers have allowed seven receptions, 89 yards and one touchdown per game to the tight end position.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Lawrence Tynes has averaged two extra points, 1.8 field goal attempts, 1.5 field goals and 6.5 kicking points per game in the past four games. In the teams' Week 7 matchup Tynes was 1-for-1 on field goal attempts and 3-for-4 on extra point attempts. This week Tynes is a weak play as a low-end No. 1 or an injury replacement.

Since Week 11 San Diego has given up 2.5 extra points, 1.3 field goal attempts, one field goal and 5.5 kicking points per game to the position.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Kansas City defense showed a lot of promise for fantasy potential in the first half of the season, but promise doesn't score fantasy points. Lately neither has the Chiefs. Since Week 11 this unit has allowed 19 offensive points per game while recording one sack, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game. In Week 7 K.C. allowed 27 offensive points while netting four sacks, two fumble recoveries and one interception against San Diego. They haven't shown any signs of that sort of production lately. For Week 15 consider them a weak play and leave them on your bench.

The Chargers have been a tough team against which to start your fantasy defense, with the kind of juggernaut they've been running. In the past four weeks San Diego's offense has tallied 32 offensive points per game. During that stretch this team has allowed defenses to register 1.8 sacks, 0.8 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game. They did have a pick returned for a score in that time.

Author Bio

Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.