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Jacksonville Jaguars Week 13 Analysis

November 29, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Ryan Dodson

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS

A field goal was all that separated the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) from winning last week, and it has essentially ended their hopes at the AFC South division title. They still remain in the hunt for a wildcard spot, however, and will look to keep up in the playoff race against the resurgent Miami Dolphins (5-6). After a four-game losing streak, the Dolphins have won four in a row and will need to win this week to keep their own playoff hopes alive. It is shaping up to be an intense battle between two teams who are battling for postseason play. So without further ado: on to the fantasy starters.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback David Garrard ran an efficient offense last week, completing 16 of 22 passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran five times for 28 yards. However, it wasn't enough as the Jaguars still lost. Over the past four weeks, Garrard is averaging 193 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns and one interception per game. The Dolphins defense has played opposing quarterbacks well over the past four weeks, which hurts Garrard's value this week. He comes ranked as an injury replacement at the position and is a weak play.

The Dolphins are allowing opposing signal-callers an average of 231 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 1.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

Running back Fred Taylor was the main threat in the Jaguars ground game last week, getting 22 carries for 101 rushing yards. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 81 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns. He is also picking up two receptions and 22 receiving yards per game in that time. Taylor remains the Jaguars most utilized running back, getting 21 utilizations (34 percent) per game including 2.8 (30 percent) in the red zone over the past four weeks. The Dolphins should expect a healthy dose of Taylor this week, and he comes ranked as a weak play as a No. 2 running back.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew continued his solid rookie season as he became the first Jaguars running back to reach eight touchdowns since running back Stacey Mack did so in 2002. Last week, Jones-Drew made the most of his carries, picking up 78 yards on just eight attempts, including one touchdown. He also caught five passes for 47 yards. Over the past four weeks, Jones-Drew is averaging 48 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. He is being utilized on 11 plays (18 percent) per game, including 2.8 times (30 percent) in the red zone and 1.3 times inside the 5. He is the only Jaguars running back to get a carry inside the 5 over the past four weeks. This week, he should be used as a No. 2 or No. 3 running back and is a weak play.

With Taylor and Jones-Drew getting the majority of the carries, there hasn't been much room for running back Alvin Pearman. Over the past four weeks, he is being utilized just 0.8 times (1.2 percent) per game. With a lack of opportunities, he should be benched this week.

Opposing running backs are averaging 73 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game against the Dolphins over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

While Garrard might have been efficient last week, that didn't spell fantasy success for the Jaguars wide receivers. Garrard has also been targeting his running backs and tight ends as much as his wide receivers in the passing game lately. This was shown last week with Jones-Drew and tight end George Wrighster leading the team in receptions. Wide receiver Ernest Wilford has been the top ranked wide receiver over the past four weeks for the Jaguars. In that time, he is averaging 45 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is being targeted six times (9.9 percent) per game, with 0.8 (8.1 percent) coming in the red zone and 0.3 inside the 5. This week, Wilford comes rated as a solid No. 3 wide receiver.

Wide receiver Matt Jones caught two passes for eight yards and one touchdown last week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 34 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Over the past four weeks, he is being targeted 4.3 times (7.0 percent) per game in the offense, including 0.5 (5.4 percent) times in the red zone. However, the Jaguars offense has been disappointing this year, and Jones has been a part of it. He should be benched this week.

Wide receiver Reggie Williams, yet another first-round pick for the Jaguars, is averaging only 15 receiving yards per game over the past four weeks. He is being targeted just 4.5 (7.4 percent) times per game, which includes 0.3 times (2.7 percent) in the red zone and 0.3 times inside the 5. He should be benched this week.

Wide receiver Cortez Hankton has only been targeted once (1.2 percent) per game over the past four weeks (two games) and he should be benched this week.

The Dolphins are allowing 152 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

Tight end George Wrighster hauled in three passes for 33 receiving yards last week, and has been a favorite target of Garrard. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 27 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. He is being targeted 4.3 times (7 percent) per game over the past four weeks, including once (11 percent) in the red zone. This week, Wrighster comes recommended as a strong play as an injury replacement at the position.

Tight end Marcedes Lewis caught only one pass for one yard last week; however, the one pass was his first career touchdown. He is still not the most targeted tight end on the team and is only averaging 6.8 receiving yards per game over the past weeks. Lewis should be used as an injury replacement at the position this week, and he is a strong play.

The Dolphins are allowing 54 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game to this position over the past four weeks.

KICKING MATCHUP: PLACE KICKERS

Place kicker Josh Scobee missed one kick last week and that ended up being the difference in the game. He finished up good on 1-for-2 field goals and 3-for-3 extra points. Over the past four weeks he is averaging 2.5 extra point attempts and 2.5 field goal attempts. He also is ranked second in fantasy points for kickers according to KFFL's standards. However, this week he faces a tough matchup and is only ranked as a poor No. 1 kicker and is a weak play.

Opposing kickers are averaging 1.3 extra point attempts and 1.8 field goal attempts per game over the past four weeks.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Jaguars defense performed well last week as they held Bills quarterback J.P. Losman to just 169 passing yards and running back Willis McGahee to only 63 yards. The Jaguars defense has long been the better of the two units, and it has shown as they have kept the team in the playoff hunt, despite some key injuries to defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (ankle) and Donovin Darius (leg). Over the past four weeks, they are allowing only 13 points, 185 passing yards and 88 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 1.3 sacks, 1.5 interceptions, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 defensive touchdowns. This week, however, they are in a tough matchup as the Dolphins offense does not give up many turnovers or big plays, and they should be benched.

The Dolphins offense, led by resurgent quarterback Joey Harrington, is averaging 19 points, 201 passing yards and 115 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. They are also allowing 0.5 sacks, one interception and 0.8 fumbles lost per game in that time.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.