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Carolina Panthers Week 14 Analysis

December 6, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Ryan Dodson

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS NEW YORK GIANTS

With a crowded National Football Conference wildcard race, this week's match-up between the Carolina Panthers (6-6) and the New York Giants (6-6) takes on an even greater importance. The Panthers are coming off a tough 27-24 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (6-6) on Monday Night Football. The team seemed to be in a position to at least force overtime when quarterback Jake Delhomme threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute of the game. It was a tough loss for the Panthers, especially with seven teams all sitting within one game of the wildcard spot. They will be looking to bounce back against a Giants team that is coming off a devastating 23-20 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys (8-4). A win is needed this week if they want to stay in the division race so expect them to come out firing. It should be a good match-up, and there are definitely some fantasy starters in this game.

PASSING MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS

As stated above, Delhomme struggled last week, going 22 of 37 for 269 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. It was the second interception that was a killer as it came in the end zone with less than a minute left in the game. Delhomme (thumb) is also listed as questionable for the team's Week 14 game with what is being reported as a partially torn ligament in his right thumb. He has performed well over the past four weeks, averaging 217 passing yards, 1.8 touchdown passes and 1.5 interceptions per game. He does warrant being played this week as a No. 1 or injury replacement at the position; however, keep an eye on his status as he might not be able to go. He is also a strong play this week.

Quarterback Chris Weinke is Delhomme's backup and the most likely to play if Delhomme can't go. Weinke has yet to make it into a game this season and has thrown only 13 passes since 2002. If he does play this week, he shouldn't be viewed as anything more than a weak injury replacement at the position.

The Giants are allowing 250 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game over the past four weeks to this position.

RUSHING MATCHUP: RUNNING BACKS

Running back DeAngelo Williams exploded last week as he rushed 17 times for 74 yards and caught seven passes for 101 yards and one touchdown. Williams has performed well replacing running back DeShaun Foster (elbow) the past two weeks as the team's primary back. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 68 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. He is being utilized on 19 plays (28 percent) per game, with 1.5 (23 percent) coming in the red zone and 0.5 inside the 5. Williams comes ranked as a No. 2 or No. 3 running back this week, although keep an eye on Foster's status as it could affect the amount of carries he receives.

Foster has missed the past two weeks because of a hyper-extended elbow; however, he is listed as probable to play this week. Last week he practiced the Friday before their game and was expected to play but couldn't go. In the two games he has played over the past four weeks, he is averaging 56 rushing yards per game. He is also getting 13 utilizations (9.5 percent) per game in that time, with 1.5 coming in the red zone. If he does play, he will start ahead of Williams so keep an eye on KFFL for any updates on his condition as he could warrant being played on your fantasy team.

Fullback Nick Goings doesn't get many carries but when he does he makes the most of them. Last week he was held to just one reception for three yards, but over the past four weeks (three games) he is averaging 15 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards per game. Those numbers are good considering he is getting only five utilizations (5.7 percent) per game in that time. He still doesn't get enough playing time, which warrants him being used as only an injury replacement at the position.

Running back Eric Shelton has only 13 rushing yards and three utilizations (2.3 percent) per game over the past four weeks (two games). He should not be played this week and should be benched.

The Giants are allowing 94 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing yards per game to this position over the past four weeks.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver Steve Smith found the end zone once last week as he caught four passes for 54 yards and one touchdown. He has come alive over the past four weeks and ranks below only Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Johnson for fantasy value at the position in that time. His four-week averages sit at 82 receiving yards and one touchdown per game, numbers he should be able to hit against the Giants. He is being targeted 9.8 times (15 percent) per game in that time, with one target (15 percent) coming in the red zone. If Delhomme starts, Smith has proven he is favorite target of his in the offense. If Weinke plays this week, Smith's value might decrease a bit, but he should still be viewed as a strong play as a No. 1 wide receiver.

Wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson was incensed with the non-call on what he thought was defensive pass interference as Eagles defensive back Lito Sheppard picked off Delhomme's end zone pass with less than a minute to go last week. Johnson has still been an important part of the offense over the past four weeks, averaging 49 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is getting 9.5 targets (14 percent) per game in that time, with 1.5 (23 percent) coming in the red zone and 0.5 inside the 5. If Weinke plays, Johnson should provide a huge target for him and could be a good safety blanket. Johnson should be used as No. 3 wide receiver this week and is a strong play.

After Smith and Johnson, there is a huge drop-off to wide receiver Drew Carter. Over the past four weeks (three games), Carter is only averaging 6.33 receiving yards and 1.33 receptions per game. He should be benched this week.

Over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing 181 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game to this position.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

This offense doesn't have a dominant fantasy tight end as evidenced by tight end Kris Mangum's four-week averages of 13 receiving yards and only 1.8 targets (2.7 percent) per game. He doesn't get enough opportunities in this offense and should be benched this week.

Tight end Michael Gaines has averaged only 4.5 receiving yards per game over the past four weeks and should be benched this week.

The Giants are allowing 43 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns to this position per game over the past four weeks.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker John Kasay was perfect on all his kicks last week, going 3-for-3 on his field goals attempts and 1-for-1 on his extra point attempts. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging two extra point attempts and 1.5 field goal attempts per game and has been perfect on all his attempts. He comes ranked as a strong play this week and is a No. 1 place kicker.

The Giants are allowing the most fantasy points to his position over the past four weeks. In that time, they are allowing three extra point attempts and 2.8 field goal attempts per game to the position.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Panthers failed to generate many fantasy points last week, allowing 27 points while picking up only one sack and one fumble recovery. Over the past four weeks, they are allowing 14 points, 186 passing yards and 85 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging three sacks, 0.8 fumble recoveries, one interception and 0.3 safeties per game in that time. They get a good match-up in a Giants offense which has been struggling lately, and they come ranked as a poor No. 1 defense which is a strong play.

The Giants offense is averaging 19 points, 217 passing yards and 132 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. They are also allowing one sack, 1.8 interceptions and 0.5 fumbles lost per game over the past four weeks.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.