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Buffalo Bills Week 7 Analysis

October 19, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

BUFFALO BILLS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Buffalo Bills (2-4) became the Detroit Lions' first victims of the 2006 season when they fell 20-17 at Detroit's Ford Field. Quarterback J.P. Losman turned the ball over twice, and the Bills were never able to get running back Willis McGahee going. Such a crushing defeat becomes all the more devastating because Buffalo must return home to host the New England Patriots (4-1) in Week 7. New England is coming off a bye week and is once again looking to put a stranglehold on the American Football Conference East after dispatching the division foe Miami Dolphins in Week 5.

PASSING MATCHUP

Sunday Losman was 21-for-34 for 207 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also lost a fumble. That has been one of his best performances to date this season, and it came against the sad-sack Lions pass defense. Since Week 3 he has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 218 yards and 1.3 touchdowns, with 1.3 interceptions, per game. In Week 7 consider Losman a weak play. He could serve as a very low No. 1 or bye-week replacement quarterback.

In the past four weeks (three games) the Patriots have allowed opposing passers to complete 57.5 percent of their passes for 244 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. New England has also picked off 0.67 passes per game in that time.

RUSHING MATCHUP

Sunday McGahee (undisclosed) rushed 17 times for 66 yards and caught two passes for 14 yards. He left the game for a period with an undisclosed injury, but he was able to return. In the past four games McGahee has averaged 86 rushing yards, 2.3 receptions, nine receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. During that stretch the team has utilized him 27 times per game (38 percent), including 3.5 times per game in the red zone (45 percent) and once per game inside the 5. Double-check McGahee's status with KFFL later this week, but he should be fine. He is a weak play this Sunday, so view him as a low No. 1 or high No. 2 back.

Running back Anthony Thomas usually only spells McGahee or fills in if McGahee suffers an injury. In the past four weeks the team has only utilized him twice (0.8 percent), including once in the red zone (3.2 percent). He has totaled four rushing yards in that time. Thomas is a weak play and should remain on your bench.

Like Thomas, fullback Daimon Shelton gets little use. Since Week 3 the team has utilized him twice (0.8 percent), and not at all in the red zone. He has one catch for six yards in that time. Shelton is a weak play and should not be on your roster.

Since Week 3 (three games) the Patriots have held opposing backs to 83 rushing yards, three receptions, 22 receiving yards and 0.67 total touchdowns per game.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART I: WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver Lee Evans, the team's undisputed No. 1, caught eight passes for 82 yards Sunday. He has enjoyed a couple of solid games in a row. In the past four weeks he has averaged eight receptions, 94 yard and 0.3 touchdowns per game. During that period the team has targeted him 12 times per game (18 percent), including 0.5 times per game in the red zone (6.4 percent) and 0.3 times per game inside the 5. For Week 7 consider Evans a low No. 2 or high No. 3 receiver.

Wideout Peerless Price caught four passes for 27 yards in Week 6. He hasn't enjoyed the kind of success that marked his first stint with the team. Since Week 3 he has averaged 3.3 catches, 31 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. In that time frame the Bills have targeted him 6.3 times (9.4 percent), including once in the red zone (13 percent), per game. Price's status as the team's No. 2 receiver still makes him no more than an injury or bye-week sub this Sunday.

Receiver Josh Reed is the team's No. 4 receiver. In Week 6 he hauled in three passes for 24 yards. In the past four games he has tallied 2.8 receptions and 28 yards per game. The team has targeted him 4.3 times (6.4 percent), including 0.5 times in the red zone (6.4 percent), per game. Reed's role could increase if wide receiver Roscoe Parrish (hamstring) is unable to participate in Week 7. Nonetheless, Reed is a weak play with a poor history versus New England, so leave him on your bench if you own him.

Parrish suffered a hamstring injury against Detroit. Before he left he had grabbed two balls for 48 yards and a touchdown. The second-year receiver has come on a bit as a deep threat for the Bills lately. In the past four weeks he has averaged 2.3 receptions, 44 yards and 0.5 scores per game. During that time Buffalo has targeted him 3.5 times (5.3 percent), including 0.3 times in the red zone (3.2 percent) and 0.3 times inside the 5, per game. Parrish is listed as questionable this week, so stay tuned for his status.

Since Week 3 (three games) the Patriots have given up 14 catches, 181 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

RECEIVING MATCHUP PART II: TIGHT ENDS

The position hasn't been a large part of the offense for some time. Tight end Mark Royal caught one pass for eight yards Sunday. In the past four games he has hauled in a total of three balls for 41 yards. During that stretch the team has targeted him six times (2.3 percent), including once in the red zone (3.2 percent). Royal is a weak play and isn't worth owning in most leagues.

In the past four weeks the team has targeted tight end Ryan Neufeld just once (0.4 percent), but it came in the red zone (3.2 percent) and inside the 5. He turned that lone chance into a four-yard touchdown reception. Despite his success ratio, Neufeld is a very weak play and should not be on any team's roster.

In the past four weeks (three games) the Pats have given up 3.67 receptions, 41 yards and zero touchdowns per game to tight ends.

KICKING MATCHUP

Place kicker Rian Lindell hasn't had a lot of chances to put points on the board recently. He has attempted 1.3 field goals and 1.8 extra points per game in the past four games. In that time he was 4-for-5 on field goal attempts. Lindell figures to see the lack of opportunities trend continue in Week 7, so he's a weak play and should be benched.

Since Week 3 (three games) New England has allowed opposing kickers to attempt 1.33 field goals and 1.33 extra points per game. Kickers haven't missed during that stretch.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP

The Bills defense appeared to be ready to return to dominant form in the first couple of weeks, but that seems to simply have been an overachievement. It hasn't helped that linebacker Takeo Spikes (hamstring) has missed time; Sunday he played for the first time in five games. The team also lost some depth when it had to place rookie defensive tackle John McCargo (foot), a first-rounder, on Injured Reserve. In the past four weeks the Bills have given up 24 offensive points per game while recording just 1.5 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game. This unit is a weak play and should remain on your bench in Week 7.

The Patriots have gone a bit conservative on offense this season, but it has paid off in the win column. Since Week 3 (three games) the team has scored 22 offensive points per game. They have also yielded just 0.33 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game. The Bills could have a tough time with such an efficient offense.