Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat

Closer Hot Seat

July 11, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to KFFL's Closer Hot Seat. We'll forecast every sketchy closer situation in the majors each week, and we'll let you know who is next in line for the job in the very volatile closer situations across baseball. Sit back, relax and put your feet up as we fire up this week's Closer Hot Seat.

KEY

Durability grade: 1 (very injury-prone) to 10 (extremely durable)

Job security grade: 1 (very shaky) to 10 (firm grasp)

HOT SEAT STATUS: INJURY QUESTIONS

Oakland Athletics

Closer: Alan Embree (Huston Street is on the disabled list)

Next in line: Santiago Casilla

Other possibilities: Kiko Calero

Analysis: It appears to be just a matter of time before Embree loses his fantasy-friendly role. At this point, if you own him, you might prefer to see that. An atrocious June contributed to his ERA's rise to its current 4.15 mark. In his last two outings, he pitched a total of two innings, allowing three hits, one run and recording a strikeout. He also recorded a save. News that reliever Justin Duchscherer (hip) is out for the rest of the season keeps Embree in the role for now. Meanwhile, Casilla continues to keep opposing offenses at bay. His ERA is down to 0.45, his WHIP sits at 0.85 and he has a .169 batting average against. He has also fanned 23 in 20 innings. Outside the U.S., Street (elbow) has been receiving unorthodox treatment for his right elbow, and he threw in the bullpen Sunday. He says he's feeling strong and could return by the end of the month. The A's have activated Calero (shoulder) from the disabled list, too. Fantasy owners should just ride out Embree until it's time to drop him, unless they find a total sucker.

Durability grade: 9

Job security grade: 2 (Last week: 3)

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer: Antonio Alfonseca (Tom Gordon and Brett Myers are on the disabled list)

Next in line: Ryan Madson

Other possibilities: Jose Mesa

Analysis: Alfonseca has blown two straight saves, each of which was the result of a single run allowed. His last effort was the result of a solo shot off the bat of Colorado Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe. Madson recorded a three-inning save Sunday, perhaps sending a message. The Phillies appear to have gotten about all they can from "Alf," so they're more than happy to hear good news regarding Gordon (shoulder) and Myers (shoulder). Gordon pitched 1 2/3 innings of scoreless ball for Class A Clearwater Sunday. He was scheduled for another outing with the club Tuesday, and some reports indicate that he could be back with the Phils when the team returns from the break. Myers is close to a minor league rehab assignment of his own, and he could return by the end of the month, if not sooner.

Durability grade: 4

Job security grade: 7 (Last week: 8)

Houston Astros

Closer: Dan Wheeler (Brad Lidge is on the disabled list)

Next in line: Chad Qualls

Other possibilities: Dave Borkowski

Analysis: The Astros have sent Lidge (oblique) on a rehab assignment during the All-Star break. Such progress suggests that he could return when the Astros resume play following the midseason mini-vacation, but manager Phil Garner doesn't plan to immediately reinsert Lidge as closer. Garner said that he'd prefer to get Lidge a few outings in middle relief before throwing him back into the high drama of closing. All season, Garner has handled this situation pretty poorly, so fantasy owners can't expect the latest plan to go smoothly. Wheeler hasn't allowed a run in his last four innings (which is, sadly, progress). The Astros haven't had a save chance since July 2, and it didn't go to Wheeler. Instead, Wheeler turned it into an opportunity when he allowed two runs in a third of an inning, allowing Philadelphia to pull within two. On came reliever Trever Miller, who recorded the final two outs. The guess is that it won't take many appearances as middle man before Lidge is the closer again. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Durability grade: 10

Job security grade: 1

HOT SEAT STATUS: LACKLUSTER PRODUCTION

Atlanta Braves

Closer: Bob Wickman

Next in line: Rafael Soriano

Other possibilities: Tyler Yates

Analysis: How long can the Braves afford to stick with Wickman? He recorded two straight saves, mostly without incident, on back-to-back days last week. Then, Sunday, he imploded again, allowing five hits and three runs in one inning. He didn't blow a save in that nail-biter against the San Diego Padres because Atlanta was up by four when manager Bobby Cox turned to him. It says a lot about Cox's trust (or is it stubbornness?) that he didn't call on someone else to ensure a Braves victory; the Friars had two on when Wickman struck out San Diego second-sacker Marcus Giles looking. Wickman recorded all three outs by the K, but the damage to his numbers was still done. Soriano hasn't allowed a run this month and proved reliable as the closer while Wickman was on the disabled list earlier this season. The Braves entered the break two games behind the New York Mets. Can Atlanta afford critical losses ignited by Wickman, especially down the stretch?

Durability grade: 6

Job security grade: 2

Colorado Rockies

Closer: Manny Corpas

Next in line: Jeremy Affeldt

Other possibilities: Brian Fuentes

Analysis: Colorado manager Clint Hurdle removed Fuentes (lat) from the closer role (the move is reportedly temporary) a little over a week ago. Since then, the All-Star (yes, Fuentes) has had to bow out of the Midsummer Classic because of a strained latissimus dorsi muscle in his back. The left-hander, admirably, didn't blame the injury for his recent poor performance, during which he blew four straight saves and gave up eight earned runs. He also absorbed the losses. Fuentes is considered day-to-day. Corpas and Affeldt were the frontrunners to lock down saves in the short term; over the weekend, Corpas recorded the only save since Fuentes' demotion, and he also notched a win last Friday. Corpas and Affeldt have both pitched effectively; neither has allowed a run in their last 11 outings combined. Fantasy owners should target Corpas and then Affeldt as temp replacements; do not drop Fuentes, though. Now might be a good time to buy very low.

Durability grade: 8

Job security grade: 3

Detroit Tigers

Closer: Todd Jones

Next in line: Jason Grilli

Other possibilities: Jose Capellan

Analysis: The heat was on Jones, especially after he lost a game with three earned runs allowed June 26 to the Texas Rangers. However, he has responded in a fairly big way. He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning six innings. He only gave up four hits and a walk during that stretch. Oh, and he saved four games. Yep, four saves in about a week and a half. He even lowered his ERA from 6.23 to 5.20! OK, that's a number that fantasy owners still can't be thrilled with, but the righty has 22 saves this season. Detroit has no immediate alternatives at this point, either. The club made a trade for the nasty Capellan, but he has allowed two runs (one earned) and taken a loss in 4 1/3 innings since coming to the Tigers. He has the stuff to close, but manager Jim Leyland couldn't in good conscience turn to such an unproven player so soon after acquiring him.

Durability grade: 10

Job security grade: 7 (Last week: 6)

Florida Marlins

Closer: Kevin Gregg

Next in line: Armando Benitez

Others: Matt Lindstrom

Analysis: Gregg continues to hold down the fort for the Fish. He recorded three saves in three innings in the past week. Two came in flawless performances, including an inning when Gregg struck out the side to finish off the San Diego Padres. Friday, in his latest outing, he recorded two outs but then walked the bases loaded before getting a pop out to end the game. Gregg seems to be defying the odds because he doesn't have the typical closer's arsenal. That could continue more so because the Marlins don't have as reliable an alternative as they would like rather than because Gregg is a long-term solution. Benitez (back) was having back issues last week; that may account for the six earned runs he allowed between June 30 and July 1. In three innings since, has allowed no runs, but those two hits and three walks don't instill confidence. It's hard to believe the Marlins would trade for Benitez and not eventually throw him in there, but health may remain the 34-year-old's roadblock.

Durability grade: 6

Job security grade: 5

San Francisco Giants

Closer: Brad Hennessey

Next in line: Kevin Correia

Others: Randy Messenger

Analysis: The Giants don't have much incentive to remove Hennessey from the closer's role yet, considering that they generate so few save chances. Hennessey converted one of those rarities Saturday, just a day after he absorbed a loss by giving up two earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. He now has five saves to go along with a 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His 23 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings don't suggest closer material. Where else could the Giants turn, though? Reliever Jonathan Sanchez (ribcage) has nasty stuff but has performed poorly and went on the disabled list last week. Correia is merely another Hennessey. One option is Messenger, who at the end of June expressed a desire to close. Why the heck not? Friday he cleaned up Hennessey's aforementioned mess to get a save. Since joining the Giants in the Armando Benitez trade, Messenger has delivered, allowing just three runs in 18 innings. Fantasy owners have no choice but to stick with Hennessey, as long as they realize that San Fran will eventually go in another direction.

Durability grade: 8

Job security grade: 3