Fantasy Football Analysis Draft I - Round 5

by KFFL Staff on June 22, 2009 @ 01:00:01 PDT

 


Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
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Will Royal end up the No. 1 Denver WR?

1) Eddie Royal, wide receiver, Denver Broncos

Team: Ilan Mochari | Team Roster

Reason: This is a PPR league, and Royal caught 91 balls - the second-highest rookie total in history. Royal's rival for touches, wide receiver Brandon Marshall (hip), has packed his bags. The top remaining running back was tempting, but I couldn't bypass Royal's 100-reception potential.

Others Considered: New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas

Standards Set: Another 90-catch effort is realistic. I'm also confident Royal can eclipse his first-year totals (980 yards, five touchdowns) in other categories. Playing with a weak-armed quarterback in a new system, Royal is hardly risk-free, but rookie prowess like his is seldom seen - it gives me faith that his skills can produce stats in any setting.

2) Larry Johnson, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs

Team: Mike Egnak | Team Roster

Reason: Johnson gives me a third starting running back to use as my flex and an adequate No. 2 for when one of my other backs is on their bye week. Johnson was suspended for a few games due to various incidents, but he was fairly effective when he did play. He still managed to average 4.5 yards per carry. The addition of quarterback Matt Cassel should add an extra dimension to the offense that will give Johnson more room to run. The addition of offensive guard Mike Goff should also help Johnson's rushing numbers.

Others Considered: Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai

Standards Set: If Johnson can rebound the way I hope he does, it'd be nice to see him break 1,000 yards rushing and score around eight or nine touchdowns.

3) Tony Gonzalez, tight end, Atlanta Falcons

Team: John Kotch Jr. | Team Roster

Reason: I couldn't resist drafting a guy who's still arguably the best tight end in the business, despite the fact the he's 33. Gonzalez gets it done year in and year out, regardless of his supporting cast.

Others Considered: San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates

Standards Set: Gonzalez caught 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns last season on a bad Kansas City Chiefs team. Now, with a strong supporting cast, there is no reason to believe Gonzalez won't duplicate that level of production in 2009. I expect he'll maintain his status quo of 90 catches for 1,000 yards with 10 touchdowns.


Can Bryant repeat as a solid fantasy WR?

4) Antonio Bryant, wide receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team: Bryce McRae | Team Roster

Reason: Dynamic receiver exploded with 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven scores last year. He has the build and talent to keep that up; last year he appeared to finally mature. Not having a team for one full year will do that to you. I don't see his motivation waning, either, as he still is playing for that big contract.

Others Considered: New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas, Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart

Standards Set: I'm expecting around 80 receptions and 1,100-plus yards from Bryant in addition to six or seven touchdowns.

5) Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Green Bay Packers

Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster

Reason: Rodgers finished last season as a top-five fantasy quarterback and was a great value pick here with his potential for strong weekly performances. He may carry the injury-prone label, but he did start every game last year, despite suffering a separated shoulder.

Others Considered: San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates

Standards Set: Rodgers' rookie season was a success in 2008 (3,965 yards and 28 touchdowns) and hopefully he is just getting started. I like the fact that he can also give me fantasy points on the ground; he added four rushing touchdowns and 207 rushing yards.


Will Addai rebound after a poor 2008 showing?

6) Joseph Addai, running back, Indianapolis Colts

Team: Matt Wilson | Team Roster

Reason: I can't put off acquiring a No. 2 running back any longer, and I was targeting Addai with this pick. Normally a sure top-10 selection, Addai's average draft position has dropped into the mid-fifth round. Why? Many are down on Addai because of his injury-plagued 2008 campaign and because of the Colts' decision to draft running back Donald Brown. However, new head coach Jim Caldwell has emphasized that Addai is his No. 1 back. Don't forget - Addai averaged 1,400 total yards and 12 total touchdowns during his first two seasons (2006 and 2007). The Colts - this is a big deal - also had problems with their offensive line throughout the 2008 season, which obviously affected Addai (just 3.5 yards per carry) when he was on the field.

Others Considered: None

Standards Set: Motivated by the presence of Brown, Addai should bounce back and compile numbers close to his career averages - 1,400 total yards and 10 total touchdowns - this season.

7) Anthony Gonzalez, wide receiver, Indianapolis Colts

Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster

Reason: I decided to choose Gonzalez in this spot because he is now in the starting lineup and has shown to be a reliable target for quarterback Peyton Manning in his two years with the Colts. The 6-foot receiver will be my third receiver to begin the season, but I believe he has the ability to become a top-two fantasy receiver on my team during the season.

Others Considered: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, Washington Redskins wide receiver Santana Moss

Standards Set: With the increased playing time this season, I would like to see around 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and six or seven touchdowns.


Upside in Thomas; but will Reggie Bush steal the show?

8) Pierre Thomas, running back, New Orleans Saints

Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster

Reason: A third running back was on my radar coming into the round, but I also considered a quarterback with this pick. With plenty of the same passers on the board, I felt it was now or never for a high-upside No. 3 back. That frame of mind led me to Thomas, whose strong showing in 2008 has me thinking he's in for a big season as a lead back. He doesn't have enough of a track record to keep me from questioning his durability, on the other hand.

Others Considered: Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Wells, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Willie Parker, Cincinnati Bengals running back Cedric Benson, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner

Standards Set: As long as running back Reggie Bush (knee) is on the field, I think Thomas' ceiling is around 1,050 rushing yards and about 200 receiving yards. I expect low double-digit touchdown figures from Thomas regardless of Bush's health.

9) Willie Parker, running back, Pittsburgh Steelers

Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster

Reason: I know the handcuff will be in my mind later, but having Parker as a No. 3 back is nothing to cry about. Reports say Parker is regaining the speed that gave him everyone's favorite nickname. In the postseason last year, he was healthy, and he flashed how he could dominate if his quick step is back.

Others Considered: Cincinnati Bengals running back Cedric Benson

Standards Set: Parker should top 1,100 yards even with Rashard Mendenhall in tow. I'm not as optimistic on touchdowns; seven scores will do.

10) Santana Moss, wide receiver, Washington Redskins

Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster

Reason: Here, I believe there is a distinct drop-off in terms of reliability at this position. The two teams behind me both need one, too, so I'm hoping to force hands. Moss is obviously talented, and last year he remained healthy. He, like quarterback Jason Campbell, will benefit from newfound stability on offense. I can wait on my QB.

Others Considered: Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart

Standards Set: Moss, if he goes 16, should put up about 80 catches, 1,200 yards and six or seven scores.


Will Jackson grow into the Eagles' No. 1 fantasy receiver?

11) DeSean Jackson, wide receiver, Philadelphia Eagles

Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster

Reason: Calculated risks don't always pay off, and that was the case here. There were several players (Addai, Parker, L. Johnson, Bryant) that I thought would fall, but they were drafted just a bit before mine. Jackson, entering his second year, appears poised to take over as the Eagles' No. 1 receiver. He had 62 receptions for 912 yards and two scores a year ago, which he should only improve on. The drafting of receiver Jeremy Maclin could relieve Jackson of his return duties, allowing him to focus purely on receiver this year.

Others Considered: Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart, Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Wells and Buffalo Bills wide receiver Lee Evans.

Standards Set: Jackson showed to be a quick study last year, despite being a rookie. Killer speed, elusiveness and decent hands should allow him to improve this year. I'm looking for 1,100 yards and six touchdowns this year, as he improves his receptions to the 70-75 range.

12) Jonathan Stewart, running back, Carolina Panthers

Team: Kostas Bolos | Team Roster

Reason: I'll gladly take Stewart (Achilles) as my No. 3 running back in this slot. As a rookie last season, Stewart rushed for 836 yards with an impressive 10 touchdowns on just 184 carries. Although he will share carries behind DeAngelo Williams, I expect Stewart to have a bigger workload this season, barring injury.

Others Considered: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates.

Standards Set: I'm looking for 900-plus yards rushing with 10 to 12 touchdowns.

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
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