Overvalued place kickers: fantasy football busts

September 7, 2009 @ 01:00:01

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

Nate Kaeding | San Diego Chargers | Average draft placement: 162.7 | Last week: 161.5

Don't be fooled by Kaeding. Sure, he plays in a warm-weather city for one of the strongest offenses in the AFC. That hasn't helped his field goals in the last few years, though. His accuracy has declined in the last two years, hitting a four-year low of 84.4 percent last year. Without the accuracy, it's hard to make up for his tied-for-15th rank in field goals attempted. In fact, last year was his first with more than 30 field goal attempts. There will be plenty of other kickers available in the final couple of rounds so you don't have to burn a 13th-round pick on Kaeding.

Fantasy value: He's still a solid No. 1 kicker, but there should be plenty of kickers you can take later in the draft. Don't reach for Kaeding when the difference between taking a kicker at this spot or later could cost you a sleeper at another position.

Neil Rackers | Arizona Cardinals | Average draft placement: 161.5 | Last week: 157.2

Another warm-weather team's kicker finds his way onto this list. Rackers was left with only a few tries because of the Cards' explosive offense too often last year. He attempted one or fewer field goals in half of his games. His attempts have decreased in each of the last three years since a career-high 42 in 2005. His decreasing attempts put more pressure on his accuracy, which has rarely been great. He hit 89.3 percent of his kicks last year; don't buy into that too much. He was just 70.0 percent the year before and has a career average of only 77.1 percent. Don't overvalue him based on the outlying years in 2005 and 2008.

Fantasy value: He's a decent No. 1 fantasy kicker that could chip in a few big games when the Arizona offense is on fire. Still, we advise you to hold off and take a kicker of comparable value in the last couple of rounds.

Adam Vinatieri | Indianapolis Colts | Average draft placement: 179.8 | Last week: 176.4

Name value appears to be all you need to get drafted as a fantasy kicker. Vinatieri hasn't attempted more than 29 field goals in a season since 2004. His accuracy has disappeared in the last two years, reaching just 80 percent last year after only 79.3 percent in 2007. Hip surgery to relieve nagging discomfort doesn't appear to be anything serious, but with kickers, even a little change like this could affect them. Don't be sucked in by throwing your hat in the ring with a well-known kicker just because he's there.

Fantasy value: Vinatieri is being drafted, on average, at the beginning of the 15th round. We don't feel he should be drafted at all; instead, leave him for the waiver wire, though there is a good chance another owner will take him based off his name.

QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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