Overvalued tight ends: fantasy football busts

September 7, 2009 @ 18:27:06

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

QB | RB | WR | PK | DT

Tony Gonzalez | Atlanta Falcons | Average draft placement: 54.8 | Last week: 54.6

Gonzo's new home may hurt his value

Is there reason to be wary of Gonzalez after his offseason move to Atlanta? The 10-time Pro Bowler is coming off, arguably, one of the best seasons of his career (96 receptions, 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns). Heading to Hawaii 10 times is impressive, but he has also been around the league awhile. He'll be 33 this year, well past the age when tight ends tend to decline. It's not like he is moving to a pass-heavy offense, either. The Dirty Birds still love to pound the ball; Gonzalez, an adept blocker, could be kept in more often to block if the Falcons line regresses to its 2007 form. He'll also be learning a new offense. Temper your expectations for him; he should still be among the top at the position but don't look for a jump in production with his new team.

Fantasy value: No doubt he's still a No. 1 tight end. It's just we feel there are better values. The tight end position has become one of the deepest in recent years, so you should be able to find good value later in the draft. It's not a bad thing to draft Gonzo, but you don't want to be the person that drafts him too early.

NEW - John Carlson | Seattle Seahawks | Average draft placement: 102.1 | Last week: N/A

Though his rookie season showed he can make a significant offensive impact, Carlson had several things going for him. Seneca Wallace taking over for the injured Matt Hasselbeck behind center moved a big offensive focus to Carlson. He also was helped by a long medical sheet for Seahawks receivers. Well, Hasselbeck is now healthy, and the Seahawks are restocking their receivers. The arrival of receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh will strip some looks from the second-year tight end, especially in the red zone. As if another reason was needed to knock his value down, Carlson will now be playing in a Greg Knapp offense, which tilts toward the run more often than not.

Fantasy value: You can consider Carlson a low-end No. 1 fantasy option, but there are options in the same tier with better surroundings. Carlson no doubt has above-average hands and ability, but you can't bank on a statistical repeat by taking Carlson this soon.

QB | RB | WR | PK | DT

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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