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Fantasy Football Draft GuideOvervalued wide receivers: fantasy football busts
By Bryce McRae KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before! Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly. QB | RB | TE | PK | DTLarry Fitzgerald | Arizona Cardinals | Average draft placement: 8.1 | Last week: 7.6
What happens to Fitz if Kurt Warner is injured? Is he still the same threat if Matt Leinart is throwing him passes? We saw last year how much New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss dropped off after quarterback Tom Brady (knee) went down in the first game. Well, Warner isn't even in Brady's class when it comes to durability. He has only completed a full season three times in 12 years. Do you really want to risk your first-round pick's production on Warner's injury-prone body? We say no. Fantasy value: Fitzgerald, arguably, is the best receiver in the draft, though Detroit Lions wideout Calvin Johnson deserves consideration, too. Fitzgerald won't necessarily be a bust, but it is still far too risky to take him this high. Top running backs might be harder to come by because of the committee approach, and they still have to be valued over a top wideout in the first round. Inevitably, though, Fitz will go in the first round in almost every single league. We recently witnessed an owner draft him No. 1 overall in an experts league. That's tough to stomach! Antonio Bryant | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Average draft placement: 56.4 | Last week: 57.7 Those who predicted Antonio Bryant would finish with 83 receptions, 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns last year can put their hands up now. The 2002 second-round pick re-emerged onto the fantasy scene after spending the 2007 season in football limbo. Reasons to be wary this year: There isn't much of a track record (only once has he posted more than 733 yards in a season), and the Bucs offense this year could be a mess. Bryant (knee) has been hobbled, too. Their options at quarterback include Luke McCown, Josh Freeman and Byron Leftwich. They'll also be implementing a new offense under rookie head coach Raheem Morris that has already experienced turnover at the coordinator spot. A recent knee scope should bring his draft placement back to earth. Fantasy value: Bryant makes for a risky No. 3 wideout. His ADP has started to become more reasonable as he recovers from a knee scope. Let the buyer beware! Eddie Royal | Denver Broncos | Average draft placement: 50.3 | Last week: 52.5 Receivers that you can find later in the draft and that won't cost you a mid-fifth-round pick include the Green Bay Packers' Donald Driver, the Washington Redskins' Santana Moss or the Cincinnati Bengals' Chad Ochocinco. New head coach Josh McDaniels loves to spread the ball around from his days in New England, but does he have the quarterback to do so? Kyle Orton might be slightly underrated, but he is no Jay Cutler. Last year, Royal averaged just 10.8 yards per reception last year and scored only five times. He has no long-term track record and has to learn a new offense. Fantasy value: We are much lower on Royal than other services, and his best value will be in point-per-reception leagues. There is just too much uncertainty with the Broncos offense to take a chance on Royal this early. He has the makings of a possession receiver, but the Broncos already possess a glorified one in Brandon Marshall. Of course, if Marshall leaves, Royal receives an immediate upgrade, but you can't bank on Marshall leaving, especially since the Broncos just lifted his suspension. Take Royal as a No. 4 or a weak No. 3, though it'll be tough to do that at his current draft placement. Lance Moore | New Orleans Saints | Average draft placement: 62.4 | Last week: 64.7 Before 2008, the fourth-year receiver had caught just 33 passes for 312 yards. In 2008, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Brees nearly broke Dan Marino's passing yardage record; he'll be hard pressed to come close to the 5,000-plus yards he had again. Running back Reggie Bush, one of the Saints' top receiving targets, played in only 10 games last year; if he returns healthy, he'll bump Moore (shoulder) down the pecking order for touches. Also, wide receiver Marques Colston was injured in Week 1, and he wasn't healthy until November. Some of those looks Moore received will go back to Colston, the undisputed No. 1 in New Orleans. Fantasy value: The Saints are still going to pass the ball a ton, so Moore won't lose value completely. If you take him as a No. 2, though, as his draft placement suggests, that is far too high. He should be viewed as a weak No. 3 receiver with minimal upside. Jeremy Maclin | Philadelphia Eagles | Average draft placement: 120.2 | Last week: 121.2 Sure, rookie receivers have made strides to shake their reputation as non-existent fantasy starters in recent years. However, this is still too high for us to take a chance on Maclin. The Eagles have too many other weapons in their offense to be able to count on Maclin regularly. Kevin Curtis (groin), Jason Avant, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Brown, Brent Celek, Brian Westbrook (knee) and LeSean McCoy will all be around to usurp touches. In addition, Maclin will be trying to pick up a notoriously complex West Coast offense, but he is quite intelligent, in his defense. Fantasy value: Owners are drafting Maclin generally as a No. 4 receiver, yet his value is better suited as a flier No. 5 receiver with decent upside. He has talent, no doubt, but it takes more for him to be a potential starter in your fantasy league. In other words, don't get caught up in the hype. His best value is in a full-retention keeper league. QB | RB | TE | PK | DT
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Author Bio
Bryce McRae Featured LinksTalk Sports 24/7! Recent articles:
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