Overvalued wide receivers: fantasy football busts

September 7, 2009 @ 21:26:51

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

QB | RB | TE | PK | DT

Larry Fitzgerald | Arizona Cardinals | Average draft placement: 8.1 | Last week: 7.6

You can consider Fitz in the late first round

What happens to Fitz if Kurt Warner is injured? Is he still the same threat if Matt Leinart is throwing him passes? We saw last year how much New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss dropped off after quarterback Tom Brady (knee) went down in the first game. Well, Warner isn't even in Brady's class when it comes to durability. He has only completed a full season three times in 12 years. Do you really want to risk your first-round pick's production on Warner's injury-prone body? We say no.

Fantasy value: Fitzgerald, arguably, is the best receiver in the draft, though Detroit Lions wideout Calvin Johnson deserves consideration, too. Fitzgerald won't necessarily be a bust, but it is still far too risky to take him this high. Top running backs might be harder to come by because of the committee approach, and they still have to be valued over a top wideout in the first round. Inevitably, though, Fitz will go in the first round in almost every single league. We recently witnessed an owner draft him No. 1 overall in an experts league. That's tough to stomach!

Antonio Bryant | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Average draft placement: 56.4 | Last week: 57.7

Those who predicted Antonio Bryant would finish with 83 receptions, 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns last year can put their hands up now. The 2002 second-round pick re-emerged onto the fantasy scene after spending the 2007 season in football limbo. Reasons to be wary this year: There isn't much of a track record (only once has he posted more than 733 yards in a season), and the Bucs offense this year could be a mess. Bryant (knee) has been hobbled, too. Their options at quarterback include Luke McCown, Josh Freeman and Byron Leftwich. They'll also be implementing a new offense under rookie head coach Raheem Morris that has already experienced turnover at the coordinator spot. A recent knee scope should bring his draft placement back to earth.

Fantasy value: Bryant makes for a risky No. 3 wideout. His ADP has started to become more reasonable as he recovers from a knee scope. Let the buyer beware!

Eddie Royal | Denver Broncos | Average draft placement: 50.3 | Last week: 52.5

Receivers that you can find later in the draft and that won't cost you a mid-fifth-round pick include the Green Bay Packers' Donald Driver, the Washington Redskins' Santana Moss or the Cincinnati Bengals' Chad Ochocinco. New head coach Josh McDaniels loves to spread the ball around from his days in New England, but does he have the quarterback to do so? Kyle Orton might be slightly underrated, but he is no Jay Cutler. Last year, Royal averaged just 10.8 yards per reception last year and scored only five times. He has no long-term track record and has to learn a new offense.

Fantasy value: We are much lower on Royal than other services, and his best value will be in point-per-reception leagues. There is just too much uncertainty with the Broncos offense to take a chance on Royal this early. He has the makings of a possession receiver, but the Broncos already possess a glorified one in Brandon Marshall. Of course, if Marshall leaves, Royal receives an immediate upgrade, but you can't bank on Marshall leaving, especially since the Broncos just lifted his suspension. Take Royal as a No. 4 or a weak No. 3, though it'll be tough to do that at his current draft placement.

Lance Moore | New Orleans Saints | Average draft placement: 62.4 | Last week: 64.7

Before 2008, the fourth-year receiver had caught just 33 passes for 312 yards. In 2008, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Brees nearly broke Dan Marino's passing yardage record; he'll be hard pressed to come close to the 5,000-plus yards he had again. Running back Reggie Bush, one of the Saints' top receiving targets, played in only 10 games last year; if he returns healthy, he'll bump Moore (shoulder) down the pecking order for touches. Also, wide receiver Marques Colston was injured in Week 1, and he wasn't healthy until November. Some of those looks Moore received will go back to Colston, the undisputed No. 1 in New Orleans.

Fantasy value: The Saints are still going to pass the ball a ton, so Moore won't lose value completely. If you take him as a No. 2, though, as his draft placement suggests, that is far too high. He should be viewed as a weak No. 3 receiver with minimal upside.

Jeremy Maclin | Philadelphia Eagles | Average draft placement: 120.2 | Last week: 121.2

Sure, rookie receivers have made strides to shake their reputation as non-existent fantasy starters in recent years. However, this is still too high for us to take a chance on Maclin. The Eagles have too many other weapons in their offense to be able to count on Maclin regularly. Kevin Curtis (groin), Jason Avant, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Brown, Brent Celek, Brian Westbrook (knee) and LeSean McCoy will all be around to usurp touches. In addition, Maclin will be trying to pick up a notoriously complex West Coast offense, but he is quite intelligent, in his defense.

Fantasy value: Owners are drafting Maclin generally as a No. 4 receiver, yet his value is better suited as a flier No. 5 receiver with decent upside. He has talent, no doubt, but it takes more for him to be a potential starter in your fantasy league. In other words, don't get caught up in the hype. His best value is in a full-retention keeper league.

QB | RB | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Nathan LaRue, at 09:16 on 06/08/09, says: Is it not wrong to say Maclin is a bust when he has not played a down yet?Curits is always hurt,Jackson is ok but the rest of there wide outs suck!I think he may be a sleeper!!!!!!!!

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2

Cory J. Bonini, at 08:01 on 06/15/09, says: Nathan, We're not saying Maclin is a bust. We're saying he is overvalued. There is a difference. He may have a solid year for a rookie, but drafting him in the 10th round, on average, is too risky.

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3

Sherwyn Banks, at 01:44 on 06/19/09, says: These guys can be on my fantasy roster any day. Are you sure you know what your talking about?

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4

Cory J. Bonini, at 06:24 on 06/22/09, says: Sherwyn, The purpose of the article is to point out players are are being drafted higher than they should or have a higher probability to be a bust. At the right price, we will gladly take any one of these players on our teams, too.

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5

Mark Havener, at 11:57 on 07/04/09, says: I've been following all the offseason news since the Superbowl, and I agree with all these picks as overvalued players or players with real question marks. The only one I'd take at anything close to his ADP is Fitz, and I'd only take him if all my target RB1s are gone (so if I drafted him, it'd be at the end of the first or beginning of the second). Bryant's got big questions at QB, Royal has upside, but he should only be drafted that high if Marshall leaves, Moore is only valuable if Colston and Bush get hurt again, Breaston is only valuable if Fitz or Boldin go down (and Warner doesn't), and Maclin is a rookie playing for a team that likes to spread the ball around (and it's not like they're going to stop throwing to last year's stud rook - Desean Jackson). I've taken part in a lot of mocks this year, and outside of Fitz, every one of these guys goes consistently higher than he should.

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6

Jonathan Wood, at 09:47 on 07/14/09, says: I think Anquan Boldin should be added to the list. Or maybe instead of choosing two Arizona WR's, maybe you should have had just had one slot on here for Arizona WR's lol.

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7

Jim, at 06:54 on 07/25/09, says: I've running a football league for the last 25 years. I can tell you going with a rookie WR is dangerous. I have one guy in my league who has been with me for 15 seasons, he loves rookies!! He has missed the playoffs 13 of 15 years. The article is right on!!!

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8

robert, at 01:12 on 07/29/09, says: Some of this confusion in value comes from the type of league you may be in. Ive been in a keeper league (10 teams) for 22 years. We each have 7 WR on roster. Thats 70 wr's off limits..In my world, Maclin is fairly high on the draft list. He wont likely get many looks this year, unless an injury keeps one of the other three wr's on the sideline..The chances that Maclin would sit brown, Curtis, or Jackson, are slim. In keeper leagues, Maclin is not the best, but a good project..In a single season league, he has close to 0 draft value, considering the talent on the eagles current roster..

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9

Shred, at 07:53 on 08/29/09, says: I think you guys are way off on Larry Fitzgerald. He'll go first round in most fantasy drafts this season. Even yours Bryce McRae, the author of this piece.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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