Overvalued running backs: fantasy football busts

September 7, 2009 @ 18:26:37

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

QB | WR | TE | PK | DT

Matt Forte | Chicago Bears | Average draft placement: 2.6 | Last week: 2.8

Forte's touches should decrease

Forte accomplished something not even Walter Payton or Gale Sayers managed - Forte set a franchise rookie record with 1,715 total yards last year. Is there any reason to think he won't improve in his sophomore year? We think so. He touched the ball 379 times last year; it would be a stretch to think he can do that again. Quarterback Jay Cutler is now in town, so look for them to pass the ball more, and they've already talked about limiting Forte's workload this year. Kevin Jones (knee) has looked fluid in organized team activities (OTAs); he will be almost two years removed from his torn anterior cruciate ligament and Lisfranc injuries. Need statistical indicators: Forte only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year, and he ran for more than 100 yards just three times.

Fantasy value: He is a No. 1 fantasy back, no doubt, but fantasy players are drafting him as the second best back in the draft. In point-per-reception leagues, this makes more sense since he caught a ton of passes, but in performance leagues, his draft placement is far too early.

Brian Westbrook | Philadelphia Eagles | Average draft placement: 13.9 | Last week: 14.2

Are Westy's days as a stud running back over? His left knee bothered him again last season, limiting him to just 936 yards, and he has never completed a full slate of games during his career. Arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason isn't expected to limit him, but it should have you at least wary of the soon-to-be 30-year-old's balky knee. Additionally, Westbrook underwent offseason surgery to repair bone spurs in his ankle. The only expectation is that he'll be ready for the season opener. The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft; the versatile back could be a decent complement for Westbrook. This could eat into Westbrook's touches, too, especially if the Eagles want to keep him fresher than usual for a potential playoff push. His yards-per-carry average (4.0) declined for the second straight year in 2008, too.

Fantasy value: Westbrook is a very weak No. 1 back in PPR leagues. Just be wary; he has never been the epitome of health, and the Eagles added some pieces (McCoy, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin) to their offense that could eat into his touches. Of course, Westbrook's greatest value is in point-per-reception formats.

Thomas Jones | New York Jets | Average draft placement: 35.6 | Last week: 36.0

Jones enjoyed a career year (1,519 total yards and 15 offensive touchdowns) last year; now he wants a new contract. He has attended OTAs, though, and the 30-year-old back has stated he isn't unhappy with the team, just the contract. Even if he is one of the fittest backs in the league (reportedly he has bulked up to 230 pounds, per offensive tackle Damien Woody), you have to wonder if he's ready to break down after 1,949 career carries, especially as he'll turn 31 this year. Jones declined considerably in the last quarter of last year, averaging just 56 yards per game. That coincided with Brett Favre's decline; defenses won't be threatened by the likes of Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens this year, so they could stack the box against Jones. New head coach Rex Ryan was also witness to a successful three-headed rushing approach in Baltimore last year. Might the defensive-minded coach consider that with Leon Washington and Shonn Greene?

Fantasy value: Jones is a weak No. 2 back if you do take him ... but burning a pick on him late in the third round is a bit of a stretch. He had never reached double digits in touchdowns in a season until last year. The risk of losing considerable carries to Washington and Greene looms, as well.

Marshawn Lynch | Buffalo Bills | Average draft placement: 47.6 | Last week: 47.7

Lynch: Suspended for three games

Despite facing a three-game suspension, Lynch is being drafted in the fourth round, on average. His production through two seasons hasn't been special, and Lynch tallied 30 fewer carries in 2008 even though he played in two more games than the previous season. Lynch doesn't display big-play ability, as evidenced by his career-best run of 56 yards. His saving grace last year was a massive increase in receptions (29 more than 2007), but the addition of wide receiver Terrell Owens pretty much negates the significance of the improvement when forecasting Lynch's '09 receiving totals. Furthermore, he is one mishap away from a severe punishment by the league's ruling iron hand.

Fantasy value: Lynch is a low-end No. 3 running back in our eyes, but we have a hard time drafting him in the fourth round - even in point-per-reception formats. If he slides into the late fifth or early sixth, take the chance on him

Darren Sproles | San Diego Chargers | Average draft placement: 91.7 | Last week: 94.0

Is LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs in San Diego? A lot of fantasy owners are banking on that. Sproles, who measures just 5-foot-6, 181 pounds, showed what the future might look like when he ran for 105 yards and scored three times in the Chargers' playoff win over the Indianapolis Colts last year. Still, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of LT's death are greatly exaggerated. He should be fully healthy after a turf toe injury hampered him for the first half of 2008. Sproles doesn't profile as a back that can carry the load full time for a prolonged period. Banking on an undersized backup rusher is just too risky for us at this price.

Fantasy value: Sproles' value will increase in point-per-reception leagues, but we can't recommend him as anything more than a No. 4 play with value largely as a handcuff to Tomlinson. He could be valuable as a matchup play against teams that struggle against receiving backs, too.

Le'Ron McClain | Baltimore Ravens | Average draft placement: 125.0 | Last week: 127.3

This is about 150 picks too early for McClain. OK, that might be an overstatement, but the Ravens are planning to move McClain back to a more traditional fullback role after Lorenzo Neal took off for "greener" pastures in Oakland. McClain's days of 20-plus touches are likely over. He'll be behind running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee on the pecking order for touches. Baltimore also added to their depth there when they drafted Cedric Peerman. McClain has also reported to minicamp 20 pounds overweight - perhaps the added bulk is so he'll be more adept at blocking.

Fantasy value: McClain doesn't have value as anything more than a weak No. 5 running back. He's a bench player with his only possible value coming as a handcuff to McGahee or Rice. Should either of those two go down, McClain would be in line for more touches, but that isn't something you can bank on. You can snag him a lot later than this at more appropriate value.

Justin Fargas | Oakland Raiders | Average draft placement: 189.4 | Last week: 183.7

Is there enough room for Fargas in Oaktown? The Raiders already have Darren McFadden, whom they burned a first-round pick on in 2008, and they seem enamored with Michael Bush. They've been discussing utilizing Bush and McFadden together, employing a two-back system. This would leave Fargas (hamstring), who's already injured, on the outside looking in. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp helped make Fargas the 1,000-yard back he was in 2007. Knapp is now working in Seattle. In addition, Fargas has never been the epitome of good health, and he was forced to restructure his deal this offseason to remain with the team. That should tell you that the Raiders don't feel too beholden to him.

Fantasy value: We don't recommend drafting Fargas as anything more than a late-round flier. He's going in the 16th round of standard fantasy drafts (16 rounds), and he doesn't offer much upside. View him strictly as an uninspiring No. 6 back.

QB | WR | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Jim, at 01:30 on 07/21/09, says: Wait a sec, you say Westbrook is over-valued yet in your latest PPR top 100 rankings you list him well ahead of his ADP. Go figure?

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2

jokers, at 06:41 on 07/28/09, says: in a ppr,,whos your top 5 rbs???i like mjd to prove himself,,,was thickin s jackson also at the 2 spot..i have the second pick in a 12 team ppr.....any thoughts??tks jokers

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3

Paul, at 12:19 on 08/25/09, says: Agree on 5 of 7. Forte will be a stud - more TD opportunities with a real QB running the O and the threat of Cutler to Hester will mean fewer 8-in-the-box D's and thus, more running room. Your other miss is Westbrook. He's become a stud motivated by all the 'too small' 'too brittle' 'too many other options' thru the years and this year the 'getting old' thing will drive him. Both of these guys will be top 10 in standard leagues - nearer to top 5; and in the top 5 in PPR leagues. IMHO

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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