Undervalued quarterbacks: fantasy football sleepers

by Cory J. Bonini on September 7, 2009 @ 22:55:49 PDT

 


KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football sleepers and undervalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

RB | WR | TE | PK | DT


Is Schaub ready to emerge as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback?

Matt Schaub | Houston Texans | Average draft placement: 78.2 | Last week: 73.3

Did you realize that Schaub was on pace for 4,426 passing yards last year? Schaub needs to remain healthy, of course, as he has missed five games each of the past two seasons since becoming a full-time starter in the NFL. He turns 28 years old before the season starts and is entering his third year in this system with mostly the same supporting cast. Schaub has talented receivers in Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, not to mention a prolific, young tight end in Owen Daniels, to throw to. Running back Steve Slaton appears to be a legitimate starter in the NFL, so Houston's rushing attack should only help Schaub. This offensive line isn't the same one that allowed David Carr to be battered and beaten, either.

Fantasy value: View Schaub as an ideal No. 2 fantasy quarterback, but he deserves consideration as a low-end No. 1 option if you can secure a capable backup. He is risky due to his injury history, but all the pieces are in place for Schaub to be ready to lead the Texans and your fantasy team in '09.

Jason Campbell | Washington Redskins | Average draft placement: 189.7 | Last week: 190.7

Campbell threw 506 times in 16 starts last year, because the Redskins were leaning heavily on running back Clinton Portis while the young quarterback acclimated himself to the system. By comparison, only three quarterbacks in the top 10 of fantasy points scored in our standard format attempted fewer passes than Campbell did (four points per passing touchdown and one point per 20 passing yards). With a year under his belt in the system, Campbell finally gains consistency within his offense. His top three receivers return, as do his top running backs, and the offensive line is no worse than last year. Oh, we almost forgot that Campbell's offensive coordinator, Sherman Smith, returns. Campbell's attempts-per-interception ratio was the best in the league at 84.3

Fantasy value: We're not saying Campbell is going to have a monster year, but he should be a low-end No. 1 or a very strong No. 2 fantasy passer. Given head coach Jim Zorn's penchant for passing, career highs in attempts, yardage and touchdown passes for the fifth-year Auburn University vet could be in the cards. His average draft placement of the early 16th round shows Campbell isn't getting any respect from fantasy leaguers.


Hill will start Week 1

Shaun Hill | San Francisco 49ers | Average draft placement: 205.5 | Last week: 202.0

Hill has apparently beaten out Alex D. Smith for the starting gig. Had Hill started all 16 games at his 2008 pace he would have thrown for 3,637 yards, tossed 23 touchdown passes and surrendered 14 interceptions. We're not saying he would have necessarily met those numbers, but we're talking about low-end No. 1 fantasy stats if he did. The 49ers figure to be a power-running team in 2009, but Hill has a few indicator stats working in his favor. In 12 NFL games played, he has averaged 212.3 passing yards and twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions thrown. The 212.3 passing yards per game is more than what the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger (207.1) and the New York Giants' Eli Manning (202.4) averaged last year. Hill has completed 64.0 percent of his career passes (235-for-367).

Fantasy value: Fantasy owners probably won't even consider Hill unless their league is deeper than the norm. His average draft placement of the early 18th round illustrates most owners don't view him as a fantasy-worthy option. With all of the potential weapons in San Francisco's offense, Hill deserves a look as a midrange No. 2 if you have a stud No. 1. He could provide your team trade value as the season goes along.

RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

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About Cory J. Bonini

Cory is KFFL's General Manager. In late 2002, he joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, Bonini has been featured in print, on radio and on scores of websites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

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