Undervalued quarterbacks: fantasy football sleepers

September 7, 2009 @ 22:55:49

By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Bryce McRae

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football sleepers and undervalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

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Is Schaub ready to emerge as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback?

Matt Schaub | Houston Texans | Average draft placement: 78.2 | Last week: 73.3

Did you realize that Schaub was on pace for 4,426 passing yards last year? Schaub needs to remain healthy, of course, as he has missed five games each of the past two seasons since becoming a full-time starter in the NFL. He turns 28 years old before the season starts and is entering his third year in this system with mostly the same supporting cast. Schaub has talented receivers in Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, not to mention a prolific, young tight end in Owen Daniels, to throw to. Running back Steve Slaton appears to be a legitimate starter in the NFL, so Houston's rushing attack should only help Schaub. This offensive line isn't the same one that allowed David Carr to be battered and beaten, either.

Fantasy value: View Schaub as an ideal No. 2 fantasy quarterback, but he deserves consideration as a low-end No. 1 option if you can secure a capable backup. He is risky due to his injury history, but all the pieces are in place for Schaub to be ready to lead the Texans and your fantasy team in '09.

Jason Campbell | Washington Redskins | Average draft placement: 189.7 | Last week: 190.7

Campbell threw 506 times in 16 starts last year, because the Redskins were leaning heavily on running back Clinton Portis while the young quarterback acclimated himself to the system. By comparison, only three quarterbacks in the top 10 of fantasy points scored in our standard format attempted fewer passes than Campbell did (four points per passing touchdown and one point per 20 passing yards). With a year under his belt in the system, Campbell finally gains consistency within his offense. His top three receivers return, as do his top running backs, and the offensive line is no worse than last year. Oh, we almost forgot that Campbell's offensive coordinator, Sherman Smith, returns. Campbell's attempts-per-interception ratio was the best in the league at 84.3

Fantasy value: We're not saying Campbell is going to have a monster year, but he should be a low-end No. 1 or a very strong No. 2 fantasy passer. Given head coach Jim Zorn's penchant for passing, career highs in attempts, yardage and touchdown passes for the fifth-year Auburn University vet could be in the cards. His average draft placement of the early 16th round shows Campbell isn't getting any respect from fantasy leaguers.

Hill will start Week 1

Shaun Hill | San Francisco 49ers | Average draft placement: 205.5 | Last week: 202.0

Hill has apparently beaten out Alex D. Smith for the starting gig. Had Hill started all 16 games at his 2008 pace he would have thrown for 3,637 yards, tossed 23 touchdown passes and surrendered 14 interceptions. We're not saying he would have necessarily met those numbers, but we're talking about low-end No. 1 fantasy stats if he did. The 49ers figure to be a power-running team in 2009, but Hill has a few indicator stats working in his favor. In 12 NFL games played, he has averaged 212.3 passing yards and twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions thrown. The 212.3 passing yards per game is more than what the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger (207.1) and the New York Giants' Eli Manning (202.4) averaged last year. Hill has completed 64.0 percent of his career passes (235-for-367).

Fantasy value: Fantasy owners probably won't even consider Hill unless their league is deeper than the norm. His average draft placement of the early 18th round illustrates most owners don't view him as a fantasy-worthy option. With all of the potential weapons in San Francisco's offense, Hill deserves a look as a midrange No. 2 if you have a stud No. 1. He could provide your team trade value as the season goes along.

RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Jeff, at 05:46 on 06/27/09, says: WTH Schaub doesn't play for the Texans.

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2

James, at 11:57 on 06/27/09, says: Jeff? When is the last time you payed attention to football? Schaub is the Texans QB1!

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3

st champ, at 06:48 on 06/29/09, says: That's some nice work their fellas. I would like to throw one more log on the fire however - Hasselbeck. Check his #s, every other year he posts mid or low end #1s, and this is another odd year. Knapp will run the ball forcing opposing Ds to play straight. He has a ton of targets. And the OL should be pretty deep this season, what did they have 11 +/- different starters there last year! It is all predicated on good health all the way around, but he is certainly worth a look.

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4

Your Mom, at 07:35 on 07/09/09, says: Hasselbeck fa sho. TJ will help out ALOT.

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5

winner, at 11:11 on 07/17/09, says: take a look at brett favre if he goes to the vikings

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6

Rabid, at 11:01 on 07/28/09, says: If prima-donna Favre plays, he will be a fantasy dud.

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7

Bill, at 10:06 on 08/13/09, says: Who will start for the browns this year. Im pulling for Tim Hassleback!

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8

Broseph, at 02:04 on 08/15/09, says: The Brownies might as well start Elizabeth Hasselbeck at QB! Man they suck! A deep sleeper to watch for is Chad Henne in Miami. Chad Pennington for all his obvious short comings, has never posted consecutive quality seasons in his career. If he struggles early, Miami could turn to the former Wolverine who possesses the arm strength to utilize Ted Ginn's blazing speed.

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9

Frank, at 07:39 on 08/18/09, says: All of these QB should be put to sleep and not be drafted..If you want to win your league stay away from these sorry QB's

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10

Mojo, at 09:21 on 08/18/09, says: I got a sleeper QB for you... Joe Flacco

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11

David, at 11:32 on 08/24/09, says: Yeah Frank, you really seem to know what you're talking about, smh

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12

Phillyfanatic, at 03:36 on 09/04/09, says: I believe in Schaub this year. I also believe in Hasselbeck. I believe that playing the matchups with them this year you can get the same results from these 2 guys rotated based on matchups that others get from their 1st rounders named Brady or Brees. Incidentally, I also snagged Shaun Hill off waivers in the equivalent of the 18th round...

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13

Blink, at 10:35 on 09/08/09, says: Maybe if you're in an extreme pinch, pick these guys up... But I didn't even pick a QB(Rivers) until 5th round, and I still got Matt Ryan as a back up. IMO, Schaub is the only one who might put up.

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14

Neil Stanley, at 02:03 on 09/08/09, says: Matt Hasselbeck... throw him into the fire, may actually describe his current situation. This QB's decline matches the degradation of his once great OL. This offensive line had one of the best left sides in NFL. Sadly, management allowed Hutchinson to walk away....man they blew that situation. Unable to replace Steve, Tobeck retired and it was downhill from there for the skill players. that brings us to the current disaster... C. Spencer get hurt, then the ALL PRO walter Jones gets hurt. Ironically the loss of Walter seems to have gone without much notice. Q: Has anyone seen the train wreck that is S. Locklear filling in at LT???? I am simply amazed Matt survived the preseason... Should Walter Jones not return, or return deabilitated, then I see a short and painful conclusion to Matts 09' campaign. Thats my take, anyway!!!

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15

Justin, at 06:15 on 07/26/10, says: Wow, that guy really did predict old man Brett's season of his lifetime. The guys at KFFL should hire that guy and fire those who made the horrible predictions they made, outside of Schaub how everyone knew Andre Johnson alone could make happen and basically did after Daniels went down.

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosts Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio each Wednesday evening from 10 p.m. - 1 a.m. ET.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA. In 2011, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

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