Overvalued quarterbacks: fantasy football busts

September 7, 2009 @ 18:26:22

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts and overvalued players for the 2009 season will be updated weekly this offseason. We have released the evaluations earlier than ever before!

Our friends at MockDraftCentral.com can be thanked for the average draft placement (ADP), and each of these figures will also be current to provide you the most accurate information available. According to Mock Draft Central, the following information is from performance leagues without point-per-reception scoring and has been updated weekly.

RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

Jay Cutler | Chicago Bears | Average draft placement: 72.4 | Last week: 73.9

Sure, Chicagoans can be giddy over having a true quarterback. Problem is, too many people are assuming Cutler will transfer his career-best production from the Denver Broncos to the Bears along with his strong arm. Sure, Chicago gives him tailback Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen to work with, but which other options are close to failsafe?

Winds not blowing in Cutler's favor

Wideouts Devin Hester and Earl Bennett don't offer security. The playbook by no means rivals Denver's aggressiveness, and even with a reined-in attack, Cutler will probably still be a bit Brett Favreian in the INT column. The sieve-like Denver defense also provided Cutler with many stat-padding drives; don't count on that frequency in Chi-town.

Fantasy value: Given his new home, Cutler is a last-ditch starting fantasy quarterback. That sixth-round ADP in 12-team leagues screams bust. You won't be able to get him as a backup without a tremendous reach for your positional understudy. Counting on breakouts from this bunch of receivers, even the speedy Hester, asks a lot of a Bears offense that will still rely foremost on Forte; that's too much uncertainty for your No. 1 quarterback.

Kurt Warner | Arizona Cardinals | Average draft placement: 39.0 | Last week: 39.9

It was a storybook season (up until the final minutes of Super Bowl XLIII) for the veteran signal caller in 2008. Over 20 games (regular season and postseason), Warner (hip) threw for 5,750 yards, 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has arguably the best receiver in the game in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, who would be No. 1 on just about any other team. Why should you be scared off? Warner has completed a full slate of games only three times in his 12 seasons. He'll be 38 this season and is recovering from hip surgery. There's a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in town, too. The system might not change, but Warner will still need to develop an understanding with his new coaches.

Fantasy value: We aren't arguing Warner's value as a strong No. 1 quarterback. He threw for at least 270 yards in nine of his games and had at least one touchdown pass in every game but one. Spending a pick in the early fourth round on an injury-prone quarterback could leave you scrambling early for his replacement. In other words, caveat emptor is the theme.

Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | Average draft placement: 74.3 | Last week: 73.1

Ryan took the league by storm last year, enjoying one of the finest rookie seasons for a starting quarterback. As valuable as he might be for the Falcons, though, he wasn't a fantasy standout at the position. He threw only 16 touchdowns and finished with fewer than two in a game 11 times. His yardage totals were unimpressive as he managed more than 250 yards only four times. Head coach Mike Smith favors a run-first approach. They might tone it down on running back Michael Turner a bit this year, but don't expect them to shift that emphasis too much. Ryan also won't be able to surprise as many teams this year; they'll have more of a book on him. In fact, his December yards-per-game split was the second lowest of any month, and it was the only month he threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Fantasy value: Ryan would suffice as a weak No. 1 quarterback in very deep leagues, just not at the price you'll have to pay. Fantasy owners are drafting him as a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Tony Gonzalez gives him another great target, but they're still going to pound the ball often. Ryan's touchdown passes should increase some, but his yardage figures aren't likely to swell to any substantial degree. Plus, it wouldn't be surprising for him to suffer a sophomore slump this year.

Matt Hasselbeck | Seattle Seahawks | Average draft placement: 106.4 | Last week: 108.2

It's safe to assume Hasselbeck has great odds to improve on his injury-depleted '08; after all, his O-line is healthier, he lost eight pounds in the offseason and the Boston College alum can walk without excruciating back pain - for now. It's also slightly intriguing to see if he can revisit a career-best 28 touchdowns through the air in '07 - for a price lower than his current gauge.

Arriving receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh adds another weapon for his disposal to boost a suddenly healthy corps, but new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, a true groundling, will increase the rushing element - perhaps making it the primary means of progress. Can the 35-year-old Hasselbeck throw deep? He may not have to in this new system, and that limits what he can give you on a consistent basis. If you assume Hasselbeck will attempt 562 passes like he did in '07, you'll throw out YOUR back in frustration.

Fantasy value: He has gone as soon as the eighth round in some formats, which is quite the insane proposition. Don't assume he'll immediately return to 2007 levels; that was a different team in a different offense. He's best suited as a No. 2 signal caller to be paired with a high-tier starter. If someone else takes him at his current ADP, you shouldn't be too upset.

Jake Delhomme | Carolina Panthers | Average draft placement: 152.4 | Last week: 155.7

This one isn't so much an indictment of Delhomme as it is the time he is being drafted. The 34-year-old quarterback finished 2008 with 15 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. Many Carolina fans will be quick to point out he threw another five picks in their divisional game. Will he be able to recover from his much-publicized breakdown? Even if he does, how much will he be throwing the ball? The Cats run the ball all over the field, especially in the red zone. Delhomme finished with more than 250 yards in a game just three times last year. Carolina has a relatively strong defense, too, so they don't have much need to be chucking the ball around.

Fantasy value: Delhomme is a low-tier No. 2 fantasy quarterback, but at his price, you'd likely be better off waiting to snag a quarterback such as the Washington Redskins' Jason Campbell or even the San Francisco 49ers' Shaun Hill. If you take Delhomme, he'll be a decent matchup play but nothing more.

RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Ace Davis, at 09:51 on 06/28/09, says: I agree with you 100% on Matt Ryan. You're also not pointing out he had a 1700 yard 17 td rb that had Ryan seeing 2-3 guys in coverage. Turner had 390 carries last season, and we all know what happens to 390 carry backs, especially when they face the hardest run d schedule in the NFL. When turner goes down and Ryan sees 5 cover guys, he's gonna be the deer in the headlights you saw his last 5 games when he threw 3 tds to 7 picks. One other thing that doesnt bode well for him is that he was shutout in 5 of his 6 nfc south games, what do you think is gonna happen now that they all have film on him?

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2

DUCKS, at 09:11 on 08/10/09, says: Gotta give ya guys your due ! You most certainly have a big pair of footballs. I fully appreciate your honesty in flat-out laying down these QB predictions as it does give me (some) pause. And yeah, if any of these guys fell much below their current ADP I'd need to to consider them. Still: Marking Ryan, Hasselbeck and Cutler 'BUSTs' may be a stretch. Delhomme = neutral. Cutler will fall but will still post top 12 numbers, maybe even top 10. Likely Ryan has his 'sophmore jinx' but more likely due to a more difficult schedule, but this kid's for real longterm. And Hasselbeck -if healthy- will pop some situational numbers, a decent bet back-up wise.

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3

weinish, at 03:34 on 09/02/09, says: the logic here on matt ryan is retarded. sure, teams know more about him now than they did last year, but now he understands more about them and is probably in control of a much larger playbook. i'm sorry, but having watched him in college and the nfl, i would be much more willing to bet that he beats up defenses more than they beat him up. whatever he did the last few games could also be attributed to fatigue, since it was his first full season, and he had a lot of pressure. matt ryan will be markedly better this year, and there's a likelihood turner will have to share much less of the load. the whole "carries" argument doesn't hold enough water to warrant casting aside a RB like turner, or the offense in general. step into reality.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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