Impact Analysis: Struggling fantasy football stars

October 8, 2008 @ 18:10:37

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

With the season five weeks old, fantasy owners should now have a pretty good idea of how their teams are going to fare the rest of the way. One of the biggest questions owners often ask themselves is when to cut bait with any slumping superstars. Nothing hurts more than trading away that struggling fantasy stud and watching him carry an opponent to the championship. Three players stand out at this point of the season: San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson, Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Johnson.

LaDainian Tomlinson

The 2007 National Football League rushing champion is likely one of the most frustrating players as he was generally the first or second overall pick in most drafts - he has not performed to that level. His poor performances this year can be attributed mainly to one factor: injuries.

Tomlinson (toe) suffered what he called a turf toe injury in Week 1. He was able to play through it but aggravated the injury in Week 2, which coincided with a 26-yard effort on 10 carries and just two receptions for 14 yards. His health improved over the following three weeks, but in the Chargers' Week 5 game, Tomlinson aggravated his injured toe again.

He also finally conceded the hurt toe was one reason for his low production. Turf toe injuries can be painful, and this is something that could linger the rest of the season. One negative indicator was his 2.9 yards-per-carry average in Week 5; his 3.7 average for the year is only that high because of a Week 4 performance in which he averaged 5.3 yards per tote.

The toe is partly to blame because he doesn't have the same burst from his feet when he runs, and injuries to the offensive line did not help that. One positive sign, though, is that Tomlinson has also caught 15 passes this year, given he averaged 58 receptions per year in his previous two seasons.

The Chargers also welcomed back a pair of former Pro Bowl offensive linemen - center Nick Hardwick and offensive tackle Marcus McNeill - from injuries over the last couple of weeks. If they can gel, Tomlinson could find more room to run.

If Tomlinson continues to gut through the injury, he showed last year he can be a productive back in the second half. He ran the ball 176 times for 857 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and scored 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing) in the last two months last year. Two of Tomlinson's upcoming opponents this December - the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs, whom the Chargers also face in Week 10 - have a poor history against the Chargers back and a porous run defense.

In addition to those two opponents, Tomlinson will also face the New England Patriots (Week 6), the Indianapolis Colts (Week 12), and the Atlanta Falcons (Week 13). Each of those teams rank in the bottom nine for rushing yards allowed to this position per game since Week 2.

Tomlinson owners in leagues that count Week 17 in their playoff round should rejoice; that week he faces the Denver Broncos, who have allowed the seventh most yards to backs in the last month and have a notoriously poor run D. His involvement in that game, however, would likely depend on the Chargers' standing in the AFC. At this rate, though, they could be vying for a postseason berth, which would probably force Tomlinson to play a full workload if healthy.

From a fantasy perspective, owners should hang on to Tomlinson for now. It is still too soon to let the 2006 Most Valuable Player go even if his injury is a big worry. Also, the Chargers do not have a bona fide backup ready to take over as they had last year (running back Michael Turner, now with the Atlanta Falcons); running back Darren Sproles is more of a change-of-pace back. He fits well in speed plays designed for LT and can catch passes out of the backfield, but the fourth-year back did not post more than 37 carries in a season before this year.

Ryan Grant

Injuries and poor play opened up a spot for Grant (hamstring) in the Packers' underperforming backfield early last year, and the second-year back ran away from his competition in Green Bay. Over the final two months of the season, Grant ran for 825 yards on 160 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and scored all eight of his rushing touchdowns during that stretch. He contributed 22 receptions and 112 yards in the receiving game in that time.

Much to the Packers' chagrin, Grant's 2007 success has not carried over to 2008. After holding out early in camp, Grant returned but suffered a hamstring injury within a week of his arrival.

Packers coaches admitted they told Grant to take it easy on his hamstring during the first week of the season. Grant finally appeared ready for full-time duty after Week 4; the following week, he ran the ball 18 times for 83 yards.

Grant's struggles from Week 2 through Week 4 could be attributed to four factors:

• A patchwork offensive line that battled injuries and sluggish play
• Grant's lingering hamstring injury
• The team playing from behind against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3
• A matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' stout run defense in Week 4

Backing up Grant is running back Brandon Jackson, who has run for 104 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries (5.2 yards per carry). However, the team has gone away from him over the last three weeks, utilizing him 17 times in that stretch after 21 utilizations over the first two weeks. His decreasing workload could be a sign the team finally feels Grant is healthy.

Looking forward, Grant faces a pair of weak run defenses in Week 7 and Week 8 (Seattle Seahawks - 122.3 rushing yards allowed per game to this position since Week 2; Indianapolis Colts - 182.0 rushing yards per game). This could raise his value heading into the Packers Week 8 bye.

His schedule over the second half of the season is up and down as he faces a pair of tough run defenses (Chicago Bears in Week 11 and Week 16, Minnesota Vikings in Week 10). Every other defense he faces is ranked between 11th and 22nd in rushing yards allowed to the position since Week 2, with the Houston Texans in Week 14 and the Detroit Lions in Week 17 (for those leagues that count it) being his most favorable matchups in terms of yardage allowed.

From a fantasy perspective, owners could seek to capitalize on Grant's value if he comes through with a pair of big games over the next few weeks. However, owners should only do so if a blockbuster deal comes in. If not, it might be hard to get back adequate value for a player who was a high draft pick at a valuable position.

Chad Johnson

Johnson has done little this season to back up the big game he often talks; he has caught just 14 passes for 159 yards and one touchdown. He finally broke the 40-yard mark in Week 5 with three receptions for 43 yards. Over the first five games, he has finished with 22, 37, 29, 28 and 43 receiving yards, respectively.

A stretch of numbers like that might not be unexpected from a streaky receiver such as Johnson; however, a worrisome sign is the drop in targets. He has received 31 targets this season for an average of 6.2 per game; last year he averaged 10.6 targets per game over the course of the whole season. Wide receiver Antonio Chatman has received two more targets than Johnson over the last three weeks.

Two injuries are relevant here: Johnson's shoulder malady and quarterback Carson Palmer's (elbow) sore right elbow. It is possible the shoulder injury is in the back of Johnson's mind - he reportedly has a partially torn labrum - while any more time missed by Palmer would return quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter's role. However, Palmer came through the team's Week 5 game fine, and if he can remain healthy, his presence should keep Johnson playable. He'd still have to compete with fellow elite wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is the Bengals' most targeted receiver this year.

If the Bengals can establish any semblance of a running game, it could open up more of the field for Johnson. They currently are averaging 78.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks them third from the bottom in the league.

The good news is fantasy owners should have an idea of what to expect from Johnson this week. The Bengals face the New York Jets in Week 6; the Jets are allowing 16 receptions (second most in the league) and 217.0 receiving yards (most in the league) per game to this position over the last four weeks. These numbers are a bit skewed, though, because the Arizona Cardinals focused on the pass during a comeback attempt against them in a Week 4 blowout.

If Johnson can't break out against the Jets, it might be time to bench him until he has another good matchup, possibly Week 9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars (12.50 receptions, 167.5 receiving yards and 1.50 touchdowns allowed per game in the last four weeks).

If you want to move Johnson, it will be hard to get good value for the volatile star. For that reason, owners should hang on to him for at least another couple of weeks. As with Grant, they should hope for a few big games from Ocho Cinco to raise his price so they can sell him off.

Conclusion

No one is ever right 100 percent of the time so as difficult as it might be to admit you were wrong on a player, holding on to them too long can sabotage your season. Don't hesitate to make a move if you think it will help your team. Keep tuned to KFFL for further advice on what to do with any slumping stars.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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