Impact Analysis: Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

April 28, 2008
13:33:50

By Joe Loncarich
Edited by Richard Garcia and Nicholas Minnix

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano took the baseball world by storm in 2006 when he posted a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA while striking out 144 batters in 121 innings. Along with former teammate and current New York Mets starter Johan Santana, Liriano gave the Twins one of the best 1-2 combos in the major leagues. Unfortunately, Liriano was only able to pitch six innings after July and had Tommy John surgery in November of that year. As a result, Liriano missed the entire 2007 season.

Expectations were high for Liriano as he attempted to come back in 2008, though. He had a rocky spring and began the season in the minors, but the Twins recalled him when starting pitcher Kevin Slowey (biceps) hit the disabled list. Liriano's three outings resulted in an 0-3 record with an 11.32 ERA and 2.71 WHIP; the lefty fanned seven batters in 10 1/3 innings. After such obvious struggles, Minnesota optioned Liriano to Triple-A Rochester. What does it mean for the once promising prospect?

Lack of communication

There are several reasons to be concerned about Liriano's pitching. A major problem may be Liriano's pride. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire noted that there have been communication issues with Liriano in the past. They reportedly started in 2006, when Liriano suffered the injury and was reluctant to communicate with the team about his arm's status. Liriano wanted to remain in the Twins rotation and told the club his arm was fine. However, after the Twins decided to shut him down for the year, he told reporters that his arm had been hurting him the entire time.

Many believe that Liriano's surgery was a result of him pitching through pain that no one in the Twins front office was aware of. Gardenhire was concerned that communication with Liriano might be an issue during spring training this year, when he was taking the mound 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery.

Liriano struggling to find his form

The biggest problem for Liriano this season has been his control. He has walked 13 batters in just 10 2/3 innings. One of Liriano's strengths in 2006 was his ability to induce groundballs, but he has just a 42.9 groundball percentage in three starts this season. His strikeout rate, although not overwhelming, has been solid at 6.10 per nine innings.

Liriano has picked up the loss in all three starts this season, while allowing 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings of work. He has yet to allow a home run in those starts, but he has a .366 batting average against. Needless to say, he has not looked like the Cy Young contender that fantasy owners fell in love with in 2006.

Liriano should be fully healed, considering he had 19 months to rehab and recover since the surgery in November of 2007. Tommy John surgery normally has a 12- to 18-month recovery period. Liriano has admitted that he is mentally struggling to find his old form. This coincides with the growing concerns the Twins were having about his confidence level after three tough starts. Any pitcher who doesn't face major league talent in more than a year and a half is going to have a feeling-out period where they need to make adjustments.

Liriano seems to have altered his delivery now, to put less stress on his arm, something his old, devastating slider did quite heavily. He has clearly struggled with his command, especially with his fastball. On Thursday, April 24, Liriano told the coaching staff that he wasn't confident in his ability to throw strikes.

The coaching staff at Triple-A Rochester warned the Twins that Liriano was not ready for the majors after failing to look dominant in two minor league starts before his call-up. Gardenhire mentioned that he didn't regret the move to bring up the pitcher and feels that Liriano now has a better understanding of where he stands.

Minor setback

Liriano's Triple-A performance will ultimately determine the timetable for his return to the majors. He is scheduled to start for the Rochester Red Wings Wednesday, April 30. After admitting to Gardenhire that he had lost his confidence, Liriano is expected to work with Rochester pitching coach Stu Cliburn and minor league pitching instructor Rick Knapp to get his confidence back. Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson noted that in order for Liriano to have confidence, he has to have success.

There is no timetable to when Liriano will return to the club. However, if he can string together a few starts where he is overwhelming minor league batters and commanding the strike zone, the Twins could bring him up.

If he struggles, he could see himself in the minors for a while. Liriano had a 6.75 ERA in his two minor league starts this season, so he was far from dominant. He will have to have success in the minors to build the confidence that Anderson feels Liriano needs to be successful in the majors.

Liriano's ability

When Liriano is healthy, his strengths are obvious. He struck out 144 batters while walking just 32 in 2006. He induced groundballs while constantly making batters look silly with great movement on his pitches. In 2006, Liriano has shown when healthy that there is no pitcher better than him.

That brings us to his weaknesses, which are his control, confidence and communication. Liriano has never had great command of his fastball, and now he has a restructured delivery. He has struggled to locate his pitches from his new motion, and as a result, he isn't very confident in his ability to retire hitters. His communication may be improving, at least: He admitted to his lack of assurance.

There is some concern that Liriano has lost velocity thanks to his new, less violent motion, and that he may not regain it. It can take a pitcher two years or more to regain his form, if he does at all, after ligament-replacement surgery, so it's a little early to judge. However, early signs aren't encouraging, especially if his approach limits the effectiveness of his pitches in the future. In a sense, Liriano might be learning to pitch all over again. It was unreasonable to expect Liriano to come in and dominate right away, but if he isn't pitching well by the All-Star break, it's hard to remain optimistic.

Fantasy outlook

Anyone with Liriano's potential is tough for a fantasy owner to let go. It is best to monitor his minor league starts to see how he is progressing. If he does not begin to show progress against minor league hitters, it may be time to cut ties in shallow mixed leagues. If you are in a keeper league, you should be more lenient and hold on to the Cy Young-caliber pitcher. The same goes for deep mixed and AL-only leagues. Nobody wants to be the guy who released an eventual three-time Cy Young winner because of a few poor outings during his comeback from surgery. However, Liriano has a long way to go before he gets to that form, and it's not a certainty that he will do so.

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