Turner the Man in Atlanta

March 12, 2008 @ 13:26:54

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Tim Heaney

Coming off a disastrous 2007 campaign both on and off the field, the Atlanta Falcons continued their offseason overhaul by landing arguably the best running back available in free agency when they signed former San Diego Chargers tailback Michael Turner to a six-year deal worth a reported $34.5 million.

The team then piggybacked that move with the release of veteran running back Warrick Dunn just one day after the signing. The 33-year-old had been with Atlanta for the past six seasons and last year became just the 22nd back in NFL history to rush for more than 10,000 yards. However, Dunn ran for only 720 yards in '07 after surpassing the 1,000-yard mark in each of the previous three seasons. His 3.2 yards-per-carry average last year was also his lowest since 2001, which was his final season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. By releasing Dunn, the Falcons gained approximately $3 million in salary cap room for 2008.

Now Featuring the Burner

Clearly these moves place Turner as the undisputed featured back in Atlanta, a role he has not been asked to fill as a professional. Turner spent his first four seasons backing up Chargers halfback LaDainian Tomlinson and has never carried the ball more than 80 times in a season or 17 times in a game. He has been highly successful in his complimentary role, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his 228 career attempts. He hasn't been asked to do much in the passing game - 11 career receptions for 71 yards - but isn't considered a liability.

The signing is clearly a blow to anyone holding out hope that running back Jerious Norwood would be the heir apparent in Atlanta. The team simply doesn't view him as anything more than a change of pace or backup at this level despite his ability to produce big plays. His inability to pick up the blitz makes him a poor fit for third downs as well, which could further limit the number of snaps he sees each game. Overall, the replacement of Dunn by Turner as the primary back doesn't figure to have a significant impact on Norwood.

What does figure to have a significant impact on Turner's gaudy yards-per-carry average is a highly suspect offensive line that might not get much better during the offseason. The team already parted ways with veteran tackle Wayne Gandy, who spent much of 2007 on Injured Reserve and underwent major knee surgery. The team also cut tight end Alge Crumpler (Tennessee Titans) and replaced him with tight end Ben Hartsock, who figures to be a downgrade in several areas including run blocking. They might not be done, either, as they could also release guard Kynan Forney, who is in the final year of his contract and carries a high base salary. As of right now the exact makeup of the team's offensive line come September is unknown and beset with questions, though one thing is certain; this unit is highly unlikely to resemble the group Turner ran behind in San Diego.

Run-First Philosophy

Shaky offensive line play is certainly a concern, but the hiring of new head coach Mike Smith could lead to a near tunnel-like focus on the running game. Smith is a disciple of Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio, whose strategy has long been to pound the ball at the line of scrimmage, control the clock and pass when necessary. Look for Smith to build his offense around the running game, which is probably a smart move given the question marks surrounding the Falcons' quarterback situation. The downside of such a scenario, of course, is that without an able field general, the Falcons will face many teams that will likely look to stack the box. Opposing defenses will try to force the Falcons to beat them through the air, which could make holes hard to find for Turner.

Fantasy Outlook

Things are likely to change between now and draft time, but the early outlook for Turner is as a weaker No. 2 or very strong No. 3 fantasy back. He's a powerful runner that can get yards on his own, but you can't expect him to average more than five yards per carry as an every-down back. He doesn't have the same line in Atlanta, and he won't be coming in fresh against defenses that have already been worn down by a back the caliber of Tomlinson. Even with those disclaimers, Turner should still be a productive fantasy option in his first stint as the Falcons' primary runner.

As for Norwood, do yourself a favor and don't overvalue him the way so many did last year when he seemed to be going several rounds too early in many drafts. The signing of Turner should be a clear message regarding the team's opinion of him, though he isn't without value. Norwood would be a smart handcuff to Turner or even as a standalone player in the later rounds of the draft as a solid reserve option.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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