Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC West Fantasy Outlook

October 4, 2007 @ 16:59:42

By Ken Jager
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

AFC West

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Getting more and more frustrated as the season grudgingly wears on for San Diego, Tomlinson must have decided to put the team on his back in Week 4 against Kansas City. His 132 rushing yards on 20 carries (6.6 yards per carry) and one touchdown more than doubled his season rushing total in yards. He also caught five passes for 22 yards. For Week 5, Tomlinson is gearing up for a Denver defense that can't stop the run (153.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to running backs). Tomlinson is a strong play against the division rival and is in line for a big game. He also has an excellent history against this team, even by his standards.
Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson returned to form against a solid San Diego defense with 123 yards on 25 carries (4.9 yards per carry) to go along with three catches for 25 yards. While he didn't reach the end zone (and still hasn't this season), Johnson gave fantasy owners a twinkle of hope that he's coming out of his season-long slump. A favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5 should mean another big game. He is a solid No. 2 back facing a defense that has given up 127.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to the position. Keep in mind that those numbers are skewed, though, after the Tennessee Titans shredded Jacksonville in Week 1. The Jags have since tightened up against the run. Johnson does have a very good history against Jacksonville.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates had a decent game in Week 4, collecting six passes for 79 yards, but he failed to reach the end zone in the Chargers' 30-16 loss to the Chiefs. The Chargers were playing from behind often tried to go to other big-play options, too; in the red zone Tomlinson and wide receiver Craig Davis were getting plenty of the looks inside the 20-yard line. Week 5 means a matchup against a Denver defense in the bottom 10 versus tight ends (55 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game). Gates is a strong play and remains a mainstay in any lineup. Be forewarned that the Broncos may use tough cornerback Champ Bailey on Gates at times, though.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez turned in his second straight strong performance in Week 4 with 5 catches for 71 yards and his first touchdown of the season, helping the Chiefs to their second straight win. Kansas City returns home to face Jacksonville and a defense that doesn't give up much to tight ends (two receptions, 24 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game). Gonzalez is a weak play as a No. 1 option in Week 5, but he's still Tony Gonzalez and he'll get chances, so leave him in your lineup.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	231.5	1.00	1.25	6.5	0.25
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	4	208.2	1.00	1.25	0.5	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	221.5	1.25	1.50	1.0	0.00

Cutler - Cutler tripped up a bit in Week 4, completing only 13 of 21 passes with a touchdown and an interception. He did have a rushing touchdown, but he has yet to show any consistent solid play to warrant any excitement. The absence of wideout Javon Walker (knee) clearly affected the focus on the passing game, as the offense put heavy emphasis on the run. With Walker's status uncertain for Week 5, Cutler's value could suffer in the game against San Diego. But the Chargers have a soft pass defense and Cutler is a strong play as your No. 1 quarterback. Cutler has a good but limited history against San Diego, although Walker's status may play a huge role in how effective Cutler can be.

Huard - Huard posted his second straight solid game in Week 4, going 17-for-29 for 284 yards and two touchdowns. The downside was his two interceptions, bringing his season total to five. Despite his numbers, Huard's command of the offense still isn't where it should be, and he's doing just enough to earn another start each week. His days as a starter appear to be numbered, and he faces a tough test in Week 5 against the rested Jaguars. That said, Huard is a weak play and should be on your bench.

Rivers - Rivers turned in a stinker in Week 4 to the tune of 21-for-42 passing, no touchdowns and two interceptions for an abysmal 44.8 quarterback rating. Rivers pressed all game, unable to get anything going against the Chiefs defense. For this week, he likely won't be able to stand up to Denver's stonewall pass defense either, and he is a weak play for your bench.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	4	23.50 (37.62)	3.00 (29.98)	108.2	0.25	1.25	13.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	4	5.75 (9.20)	1.25 (12.49)	34.5	0.00	1.25	14.2	0.00
Michael Turner	San Diego Chargers	4	4.75 (7.03)	0.50 (4.65)	13.5	0.00	0.50	3.5	0.00

Henry - Henry (knee) bounced back from a sluggish performance in Week 3 and ran for 131 yards on 26 carries (5.0 yards per carry) through the Indianapolis defense in Week 4's 38-20 loss. But he didn't score a touchdown and did lose a fumble. In the game, however, Henry sustained a couple of right leg injuries; he was seen walking with a noticeable limp. He may not practice this week and could be questionable again for Week 5. Keep an eye on his status. If Henry goes this week, as he proclaimed he would, he could be in for a decent game against the San Diego Chargers' spotty defense. Regardless, his injury status is a concern, and the Chargers have still been a little tough on backs. Henry also reportedly tested positive for marijuana, which puts his status in jeopardy for the rest of the season - he faces a possible year-long suspension. If he plays this week, he is a weak play as a No. 1 option. Henry owners should be highly concerned about his availability beyond this week, though.

Young - If Henry can't play, Young would likely serve a larger role. Last week he rushed eight times for 81 yards (10.1 yards per carry) and caught two passes for 19 yards. He probably wouldn't carry the load, though; the team would likely use running back Cecil Sapp some as well. Even if Henry plays, he could be limited, so expect Young to get a few chances. Nevertheless, Young has a weak-play matchup and should be left on the bench. He could only be given consideration if Henry were ruled out. For the long term, Young's value has gone up. If Henry's test holds up, Young could become the team's No. 1 back. If he's available, he should be acquired immediately. Sapp's value also rises, and even fullback Mike Bell (concussion) may soon have value.

Turner - Turner went backwards in Week 4 with minus-2 yards on two carries and a lost fumble. The Chargers offense centers on Tomlinson, and Turner is not succeeding so far as the change-of-pace back. Turner likely won't see any significant production this season unless Tomlinson were to go down. For Week 5, Turner is a weak play and his only consideration should be for your bench.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Javon Walker	Denver Broncos	3	11.00 (13.21)	2.00 (14.99)	6.33	76.7	0.00
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	4	8.25 (13.21)	1.75 (17.49)	5.00	72.5	0.50
Eddie Kennison	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1.00 (0.44)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Samie Parker	Kansas City Chiefs	4	3.25 (5.67)	0.50 (10.64)	2.00	22.5	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	6.75 (11.77)	1.00 (21.27)	4.50	74.8	0.75
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	4	6.75 (9.98)	0.50 (4.65)	4.00	57.8	0.25

Walker - Walker's knee injury crept up on fantasy owners, and he was inactive in Week 4 after being expected to play. The jury is still out on Walker's status for Week 5, and he may be held out again, prior to the team's bye week, to give him more time to heal. Keep an eye on Walker's status leading up to the Broncos' afternoon home game against San Diego. If he's able to go, Walker would be a strong play.

Marshall - Marshall came back down to earth in Week 4, posting only three catches for 23 yards, though he did have a touchdown. His lack of production can be largely attributed to Cutler's ineffectiveness. Marshall should bounce back against the Chargers' soft defense against receivers (190.8 yards and 1.25 touchdowns allowed per game), especially if Walker is inactive again. He is a strong play as your No. 1 or No. 2 option.

Kennison - Kennison (hamstring) has missed the last three weeks with a hamstring injury, but he could return in Week 5. If he does return, don't expect much of out him right away. The Chiefs face one of the league's top defenses against receivers in Jacksonville, and teammate Dwayne Bowe has stolen the show during Kennison's absence. Kennison would be a weak play, and he should probably be on your bench if he indeed does get the nod to go in Week 5.

Parker - Parker's already small fantasy value could be gone after not being targeted at all in Week 4. On the season he has only eight receptions for 90 yards and no touchdowns. With Kennison on the verge of returning from injury, Parker will likely be demoted to No. 3 receiver. It's probably time you look for a free-agent wide receiver to replace Parker if you have him on your roster.

Bowe - Bowe had a monster game in Week 4 with eight catches for 164 yards, including a go-ahead, 51-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. The rookie was targeted 10 of the 11 times Huard went to his wide receivers. Bowe's performance only affirmed his place in the starting lineup once Kennison returns. For Week 5, though, he has an unfavorable matchup against Jacksonville and is a weak play as your No. 2 option.

Jackson - In Week 4 Jackson was targeted by Rivers nine times but was only able to collect three of those passes for 52 yards and no touchdowns. He received the most attention among his fellow wide receivers, but three of wide receiver Craig Davis' five targets came in the red zone, where Jackson only had one target inside the 20. The duo of Tomlinson and Gates combined for 11 catches, a common trend not likely to change, and a trend that affects Jackson's value. Against Denver this week, Jackson is a weak play as a No. 3 option.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	4	2.50 (4.00)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	17.0	0.00

Graham - Graham had his most productive game as a Bronco in Week 4, but it was only with four receptions for 35 yards (which actually led the team). He now has eight catches for 68 yards on the season and has yet to see any attention in the red zone. The Broncos' passing game is not where it needs to be. Leave Graham on your bench, as he is a weak play against the Chargers in Week 5.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	1.50	1.50	2.00	2.75	7.5
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	3	1.67	1.67	2.00	2.00	7.7
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.00	2.00	1.00	1.25	5.0

Elam - Elam (groin) was able to go 2-for-2 on field goal attempts with two extra points in Denver's Week 4 loss, bouncing back from a lackluster Week 3. But you'll need to keep an eye on his status for Week 5 as he suffered a groin injury in Week 4. He should be able to go this week, and he is a strong play against San Diego.

Rayner - Rayner had a strong game in the Chiefs' Week 4 victory, scoring on 3-of-3 field goals and three extra points. Thanks to its running game, the Chiefs' offense appears to be getting on track, and Rayner's chances should increase. But Week 5 could be a challenge against Jacksonville, and he is a weak play as a No. 1 or bye week replacement.

Kaeding - Kaeding's leg showed some life in Week 4, he went 3-for-3 on field goal attempts, including a 51-yarder, and tacked on an extra point. With the Chargers offense still sputtering, however, Kaeding's value remains low. He is a weak play versus Denver this week, with the safe bet being to leave him on your bench.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	20.2	1.00	2.0	0.50	0.0
Kansas City Chiefs	4	13.5	1.25	2.8	1.25	0.2
San Diego Chargers	4	22.5	1.00	2.2	0.75	0.0

Broncos - Denver possesses the most uneven defense in the league: It's tough against the pass (114.5 yards per game) but can't come close to stopping the run (181.0 yards per game). In Week 4's 38-20 loss against the Colts, the defense gave up 236 rushing yards with two touchdowns and 193 passing yards with three touchdowns. It also did not record a sack or a takeaway. The Broncos welcome Tomlinson and the struggling Chargers to the Mile High City in Week 5. Denver is a viable option as a No. 1 or bye week replacement, but Tomlinson could light them up.

Chiefs - While it wasn't able to keep Tomlinson in check, the Chiefs defense turned in a strong performance in Week 4, holding the Chargers to 16 first-half points along with recording four takeaways (two fumble recoveries, two interceptions) and a sack. Cornerback Tyron Brackenridge also picked up a fumble for a 50-yard touchdown return. A favorable matchup against the mediocre Jacksonville offense awaits Kansas City's defense in Week 5, as it is a viable option as a No. 1 option or bye week replacement.

Chargers - The Chiefs offense exposed the San Diego defense in Week 4, racking up 390 net total yards and 24 points. The lone bright spot for San Diego was its two interceptions. For the season, the Chargers defense is allowing 351.0 yards and 22.5 points per game. It faces the potentially high-powered Denver offense in Week 5, and it's a weak play for your bench.