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AFC South Fantasy Outlook

October 4, 2007 @ 17:09:39

By Joe Book
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC South

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: Manning is on this list for a reason, as his performance last week against a tough Denver Broncos pass defense can attest. He threw for only 193 yards, but tossed three touchdown passes and added a scoring run. This should be another good test for Manning, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing only 188.2 passing yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. Don’t consider sitting Manning, but don’t expect a fantastic game. He’s a solid No. 1 quarterback, like always.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Addai (shoulder) took advantage of the sieve-like Broncos run defense and racked up 136 yards on only 19 carries. He won’t have that luxury this week, as the Tampa Bay run defense is much improved from their 2006 showing. Addai is averaging 101.75 yards per game, and he could have another solid rushing week if the Colts take an early lead. His shoulder injury doesn’t appear serious, and shouldn’t affect his play. He’s a solid No. 1 running back this week.
Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts: (Injured, not expected to play) Harrison (knee) suffered a knee injury during the Colts’ game against the Broncos, and his status for Sunday is unknown. He hasn’t practiced all week, and even if he plays, he might not offer Marvin-like production. Plan to find alternatives this weekend, but be ready to put Harrison back in your lineup if he can go.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: With Harrison (knee) potentially on the sidelines, Wayne should become the focal point of the passing game. Tampa Bay is allowing only 8.0 receptions per game to the position, so their secondary has the potential to shut Wayne down. He’s a solid No. 1 this week, but he’ll likely have better matchups in the coming weeks as he is a weak play.
Wide Receiver Andre Johnson, Houston Texans: (Injured, status unknown) It appears that Johnson (knee) will miss his third consecutive game in Week 5. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the top wide receivers in football. He had developed a nice early rapport with quarterback Matt Schaub. Monitor his status but make sure you have it covered if he can’t go.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	4	251.2	1.25	0.75	6.5	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	210.0	1.00	0.00	33.0	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	142.0	1.00	0.67	32.0	0.33

Schaub - Schaub had his first 300-yard game of the season last week, and he could be in line for another one this week against a porous Miami Dolphins defense. The team is allowing only 151.8 yards per game to the position, but they haven’t faced a pass-first offense outside of the Dallas Cowboys this season. Schaub is completing 74 percent of his passes, and he’s a solid No. 1 or this week.

Garrard - The Kansas City Chiefs field an excellent pass defense, giving up only two passing touchdowns all season. Garrard might try to rely on his legs more against the Chiefs, like he did with 12 carries against Denver in Week 3. He should be used only as a shaky No. 1 or Bye week replacement this week.

Young - Young may not often give you sexy passing numbers, but between his arm and his playmaking legs, he’s a threat to post a huge fantasy week at any time. This week could be one of those opportunities, as the Atlanta Falcons haven’t defended the pass particularly well. Young is a low-end No. 1 quarterback or Bye week replacement this week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	3	13.67 (17.97)	2.33 (18.97)	49.7	0.33	2.00	11.3	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	17.00 (22.35)	2.33 (18.97)	46.3	0.00	1.00	7.3	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	14.00 (23.00)	1.67 (12.21)	52.0	0.00	0.33	3.7	0.00
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	13.33 (21.90)	5.00 (36.62)	33.3	0.00	2.00	18.7	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	3	16.00 (24.60)	3.33 (22.32)	82.3	0.00	2.00	7.7	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	3	17.67 (27.16)	6.00 (40.18)	60.0	0.67	1.00	5.7	0.00

Green - Green (knee) missed last week’s game with a knee injury and hasn’t made significant progress this week. His status is uncertain, and he’ll likely share time with Dayne if he suits up. The Dolphins run defense is allowing 172.2 yards per game to running backs, which is the worst in the NFL. Keep an eye on his condition as he has a great matchup on paper this week.

Dayne - With Green nursing an injury, Dayne was the primary running back in the Texans’ efficient offense last week. Miami’s rushing defense is horrible, so Dayne could be in line for his first 100-yard game this week. With Green not expected to play, Dayne is a weak No. 3 running back or Bye week replacement this week.

Taylor - After a strong outing in Week 3 against the Broncos, Taylor could be running with more confidence against the Chiefs this Sunday. He’s expected to still split time with Jones-Drew, but Taylor is a solid option as a No. 3 or Bye week replacement running back.

Jones-Drew - He’s been a complete bust to date, but as the schedule becomes easier, Jones-Drew could return to his 2006 performance levels. The Chiefs are allowing 157 total yards per game to running backs, and the Jaguars use Jones-Drew in the red zone almost exclusively. Despite his troubles, Jones-Drew can still be played as a Bye week replacement this week.

Brown - After his 175-yard performance in Week 1, owners expected more of the same. Although they’ve been sorely disappointed, much of the blame sits with the team’s committee approach with Brown and White. Since he is receiving fewer touches, Brown can only be considered a weak No. 2 or solid No. 3 option this week.

White - White has emerged as the Titans’ red zone running back, and has been remarkably consistent. The Falcons have given up only one rushing touchdown this season, so White could have a difficult time finding pay dirt. His solid work this season makes him a quality No. 2 option at running back this Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Anthony Gonzalez	Indianapolis Colts	4	2.50 (4.18)	0.25 (1.96)	1.50	26.8	0.00
Aaron Moorehead	Indianapolis Colts	3	0.67 (0.84)	0.00 (0.00)	0.33	1.7	0.00
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	6.33 (10.40)	1.00 (7.32)	3.67	56.3	0.00
Ernest Wilford	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	2.33 (3.83)	0.33 (2.44)	1.67	21.0	0.00
Eric Moulds	Tennessee Titans	3	3.00 (4.61)	0.67 (4.46)	1.67	14.0	0.00
Brandon Jones	Tennessee Titans	3	5.33 (8.20)	1.00 (6.70)	3.33	45.3	0.33

Gonzalez - With the status of Harrison still uncertain, Gonzalez could be in line to contribute a bit more this Sunday. He hasn’t shown anything so far, but if the Buccaneers defense focuses on stopping Wayne, Gonzalez might get a few looks. Despite the likely performance increase this week, Gonzalez should remain on your bench.

Moorehead - Moorehead caught his first pass of the season last week and could get a chance to start if Harrison is in street clothes. Manning should still have many other options, so Moorehead remains on your fantasy bench.

Northcutt - Northcutt is clearly the No. 1 option for Garrard, but he has no touchdowns to show for it. He may not have much of a chance this week against a miserly Chiefs pass defense, which leaves Northcutt as a last gasp Bye week replacement option.

Wilford - A complete disappointment, Wilford has only five catches this season. The Jaguars haven’t utilized him in the red zone, or anywhere else on the field. Wilford deserves a spot on every fantasy team’s bench, unless there is no other option.

Moulds - Read the analysis of Wilford, and you have covered Moulds as well. He has added nothing to the Titans offense, and he should be sitting next to Wilford on the fantasy bench... and if you have both of them, seek help.

Jones - Jones is the only wide receiver from Tennessee worth owning, and he shouldn’t crack many starting lineups. Young relies on his legs to make plays, and that doesn’t bode well for any pass-catchers in the Music City. Jones is a shaky No. 3 wide receiver with a weak play this week and should only be used if no better options present themselves.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	4	5.50 (9.64)	0.50 (5.42)	4.50	49.2	0.00
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	4	8.25 (13.78)	2.00 (15.66)	4.75	62.8	1.00
George Wrighster	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.67 (2.74)	0.33 (2.44)	1.33	10.7	0.00
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	4.67 (7.67)	0.67 (4.88)	3.00	39.3	0.00
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	3	3.67 (5.64)	1.33 (8.93)	2.00	17.3	0.33

Daniels - He had another solid outing last week against the Falcons but still hasn’t found the end zone. With Johnson still limping, Daniels remains one of the top options for Schaub. He’s quickly emerging into “Dallas Clark Lite,” and is a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement at tight end this week, though he is a weak play facing one of the league’s best defenses against the position in Miami.

Clark - Clark should probably be at the top of the article from this point forward. He has surfaced as perhaps the best tight end in fantasy football not named Antonio Gates and should be in the lineup almost regardless of the matchup. This week is no different, although the Buccaneers haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season. Consider Clark a weak play, but still play him as a No. 1 tight end.

Wrighster - The opposite of Clark, Wrighster has no business on this list. He has reeled in four passes this season and is nursing a sore knee. He’s a must-sit player in all formats.

Lewis - The Jaguars seem to be calling more plays for the tight end, and Lewis has benefited nicely. He probably won’t give you superstar numbers, but he’s a good Bye week replacement this week.

Scaife - He has the potential to be an excellent red zone target, but Scaife has been used sparingly to date. Young loves Scaife’s size and hands, and could utilize his skills more often this week against an Atlanta defense allowing 53.5 yards per game to tight ends. He’s a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement option for Week 5.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	4	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.00	8.5
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	4	3.75	3.50	2.50	2.25	10.2
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	1.50	1.50	2.50	2.50	9.0
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	3	2.33	2.33	2.00	1.67	7.3

Brown - The Dolphins have allowed 8.8 points per game to kickers, and the Texans should have no problem scoring this week. Brown is a solid No. 1 kicker with a strong play.

Vinatieri - Although the Colts offense ranks among the league leaders, no kicker has scored more than eight points against the Buccaneers this season. Vinatieri is a must-play but don’t expect astonishing production from him this week. He should still be in the lineup as a solid No. 1 kicker.

Carney - He hasn’t missed a field goal since being signed by the Jaguars, but the inconsistency of the Jacksonville offense means that Carney is no better than a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement.

Bironas - The Titans haven’t been scoring at will, and Bironas hasn’t had many chances to utilize his booming leg. He’s got a decent matchup this week, and he can be played as a low-end No. 1 or Bye week replacement.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	4	20.0	0.75	2.2	1.00	0.75
Indianapolis Colts	4	15.5	1.25	2.0	1.00	0.25
Jacksonville Jaguars	3	11.3	0.67	3.3	0.67	0.00
Tennessee Titans	3	15.3	1.67	2.0	0.67	0.33

Texans - Houston’s defense is streaky, and against a Dolphins offense averaging 327.2 yards per game, the Texans could have an opportunity to get back on track. They are a weak No. 1 defense this week.

Colts - The Colts still can’t stop the run, but with an injury-ravaged Buccaneers backfield, they might not have to. Without running back Cadillac Williams (knee), the Bucs could have a hard time moving the ball on the ground. Still, Tampa Bay protects the ball and doesn’t make critical mistakes. That makes Indianapolis a defensive unit to bench this week.

Jaguars - Jacksonville faces a Kansas City offense ranked among the worst in football. They’ve averaged only 285.2 yards per game, and haven’t scored a rushing touchdown all season. The Jaguars could pressure the ball and force turnovers, and they are a high-end No. 1 option with a strong play this week.

Titans - The Falcons have struggled on offense, averaging only 314.8 yards per game and 4.0 sacks allowed per contest. If the Tennessee defensive line can penetrate and reach quarterback Joey Harrington, it could make for a long afternoon for the Falcons. Tennessee is a quality No. 1 option with a strong play.