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NFC North Fantasy Outlook

October 4, 2007 @ 17:08:21

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Ryan Dodson

NFC North

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers: One of the most remarkable stories in the NFL is also an amazing story in fantasy sports as Favre has elevated himself from afterthought to must-start in the span of a month. The 17-year veteran is averaging over 300 passing yards per game, and he has thrown eight touchdowns against just one interception over the past three games. Favre's past four meetings with the Chicago Bears have yielded just one touchdown and nine interceptions, but he looks like a different player and Chicago's defense is struggling. Play him as a strong No. 1 fantasy quarterback this week.
Wide Receiver Roy Williams, Detroit Lions: Williams was held in check in Week 4, catching six passes for 53 yards and failing to reach the end zone for the first game this season. He and the Lions draw a tough and rested Washington Redskins secondary this Sunday, which makes Williams a weak play but still a No. 1 receiving option.
Wide Receiver Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers: Driver led the Packers with seven receptions last week, but they covered just 58 yards. The veteran also failed to reach the end zone for the first time since Week 1. Driver did a decent job against the Bears in 2006, and he ranks as a nice No. 1 wideout in Week 5.
Chicago Bears Defensive/Special Teams: The Bears did a good job for the first three quarters, allowing just three points before the flood gates opened in the fourth as the Lions racked up 34 points (14 on special teams/defense) to defeat Chicago. Outside of their late-game collapse the Bears actually posted good numbers with six sacks, two fumble recoveries and another touchdown by return man Devin Hester. They have a tough matchup this week, but they still need to be played.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Brian Griese	Chicago Bears	1	286.0	2.00	3.00	8.0	0.00
Jon Kitna	Detroit Lions	4	306.8	2.00	1.00	7.5	0.00

Griese - Wait, you mean inserting a 10-year journeyman into the lineup wasn't the answer? Shocking. The veteran passer put the ball in the air an amazing 52 times in his first start, and he paid homage to quarterback Rex Grossman by throwing three of them to the other team. He can take solace in the fact that another retread, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kelly Holcomb, did a decent job of moving the ball against Green Bay last week. Griese is a weak No. 1 or Bye-week replacement this Sunday night.

Kitna - It was a different Kitna in Week 4 as the Detroit signal caller threw just 24 passes (completing 20) for 247 yards and a pair of touchdowns while not throwing an interception for the first time all year. He continues to take a lot of abuse in the pocket, absorbing six more sacks. This week against a physical Redskins defense Kitna is a weak play, but he can still be started as a strong No. 1 candidate.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Cedric Benson	Chicago Bears	4	21.25 (33.48)	2.25 (28.98)	59.8	0.25	2.00	13.0	0.00
Tatum Bell	Detroit Lions	4	15.25 (22.79)	2.75 (21.69)	41.8	0.25	3.50	15.8	0.00
Kevin Jones	Detroit Lions	2	8.00 (5.98)	2.00 (7.89)	21.5	1.00	1.50	11.0	0.00
Brandon Jackson	Green Bay Packers	3	18.00 (20.66)	3.00 (22.41)	32.3	0.33	3.67	27.0	0.00
DeShawn Wynn	Green Bay Packers	4	8.50 (13.01)	0.75 (7.47)	21.8	0.50	2.00	15.0	0.00
Vernand Morency	Green Bay Packers	1	4.00 (1.53)	0.00 (0.00)	2.0	0.00	3.00	33.0	0.00

Benson - A week after Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook lit up the Lions for 221 yards and three touchdowns, Benson managed just 74 total yards with no scores last Sunday. Benson also averaged fewer than four yards per carry for the third time in four weeks. He ran well in last season's finale against Green Bay with 109 yards on 13 carries, but he is a weak play as a No. 2 back this week.

Bell - Bell saw one more carry than Jones in Week 4, but it appears unlikely that will continue for very long. He hasn't had a good game since Week 1, and now his role is clearly diminishing with Jones back in the fold. He is a shaky No. 3 option against the Redskins this week, but he looks to be living on borrowed time.

Jones - In his second game back, Jones accounted for 38 yards on 10 carries with 22 of them coming on a single burst. He also managed to cross the goal line in back-to-back weeks. He definitely seems to be the Detroit back with more value heading forward, and he can be played as a No. 2 or No. 3 against the Redskins this Sunday.

Jackson - Jackson (shin) did not dress in Week 4 due to a shin injury, but no one else in Green Bay's backfield did anything to distance themselves from Jackson in the competition for carries. His status is up in the air at this point so don't consider playing him until you know if he'll be back in the Packers' lineup in Week 5.

Wynn - Making his first NFL start, Wynn led Green Bay with 10 carries but only produced 20 yards. He is worth considering as a weak No. 3 or Bye-week replacement this week, but only because he is getting touches.

Morency - After injuring his knee in the preseason, Morency finally made his 2007 debut for the Packers in Week 4. He did a decent job in the passing game with 33 yards on three receptions, but his lone carry yielded just two yards. His role will likely expand as he gets back into the swing of things, and he is a low-end No. 3 or Bye-week replacement this Sunday night.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	4	10.25 (16.15)	1.00 (12.88)	6.00	80.0	0.00
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	4	6.50 (10.24)	1.00 (12.88)	2.25	21.2	0.25
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	3	6.33 (7.10)	1.33 (7.89)	3.33	63.0	0.67
Shaun McDonald	Detroit Lions	4	8.00 (11.96)	1.50 (11.83)	5.25	67.0	0.75
Mike Furrey	Detroit Lions	4	6.50 (9.72)	0.50 (3.94)	5.00	61.5	0.00
Greg Jennings	Green Bay Packers	2	7.00 (5.36)	1.00 (4.98)	3.50	62.5	1.00
James Jones	Green Bay Packers	4	7.00 (10.71)	1.50 (14.94)	4.50	58.0	0.25

Berrian - One needn't look further than Berrian to see one of the main differences in last year's team versus this year's squad. Through four games a season ago Berrian had already caught three touchdowns (including two beyond 40 yards), whereas this season he has yet to reach the end zone. Green Bay generally does a good job of keeping receivers in front of them, though Berrian caught a 49-yard touchdown against them in Week 1 of 2006. He is a decent No. 2 or No. 3 receiver with a strong play this week.

Muhammad - Apparently someone told the Bears that Muhammad is still on the team. The veteran entered play last week with four catches for 36 yards on the season, but he eclipsed those totals in Week 4 with five receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. Despite showing a pulse, Muhammad still belongs on your fantasy bench in Week 5.

Johnson - Johnson (back) was scratched from the team's matchup with Chicago last week. Head coach Rod Marinelli is "hopeful" Johnson will be ready for the Redskins game, but he would not go as far as saying he was expected to play. Keep on top of this situation, and make sure the rookie is going to play this week before slotting him into your lineup.

McDonald - The Bears did a nice job on McDonald, holding him to three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. McDonald's numbers have quietly dropped off the past two weeks, but he managed to score touchdowns in each of them to augment his stats. He's worth playing as a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver this week, although he is a weak play against the talented Redskins secondary.

Furrey - Amazingly enough Furrey has caught exactly five passes in each of his four games this season. He led the team with a season-best 91 receiving yards in Week 4, but he has yet to score this year. Furrey is a low-end No. 3 with a weak play this Sunday.

Jennings - Jennings' first two touchdowns of 2007 have been of the historic variety. The second-year receiver hauled in the record-tying and record-breaking passes from Favre, forever making him a footnote to history. Jennings looks healthy again, which is good news for everyone who invested a draft pick in him. He can be played as a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout in Week 5.

Jones - The rookie hauled in his first career touchdown last week, and he has impressed by producing solid numbers week in and week out through the first month of the season. Jones is living up to his preseason billing as a quality sleeper, and this week he can be played as a decent No. 3 receiver against Chicago.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	4	5.50 (8.67)	1.25 (16.10)	4.00	42.2	0.25
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	2	1.00 (0.79)	0.00 (0.00)	1.00	14.0	0.00
Sean McHugh	Detroit Lions	4	2.00 (2.99)	0.25 (1.97)	1.50	23.8	0.00
Donald Lee	Green Bay Packers	4	5.25 (8.03)	0.50 (4.98)	4.00	43.0	0.25
Bubba Franks	Green Bay Packers	4	5.25 (8.03)	1.25 (12.45)	2.75	18.0	0.50

Clark - Clark hauled in a late touchdown to give him a nice stat line for Week 4 with seven receptions, 44 yards and the aforementioned score. He caught five passes for 77 yards against the Packers in Week 1 last season before being shut out in a meaningless Week 17 affair. He is a weak No. 1 or Bye week fill-in this Sunday.

Olsen - Olsen did not record a catch in Week 4 and should be benched in Week 5.

McHugh - The Lions' tight end has a nice yards-per-catch average (15.8), but he has just one reception in the past two weeks. He is definite bench material this week.

Lee - A team-high 66 yards on four receptions in Week 4 was somewhat offset by a key red zone fumble. Nonetheless, Lee continues to be a factor in that offense, and as such he can be played this week as a solid No. 1 tight end with a strong play.

Franks - Franks matched Lee's four receptions last week with his catches amounting to just 30 yards. He is getting 1.25 targets per game in the red zone, which gives him value. He is a strong play as a No. 1 tight end this week against a Bears defense that is allowing a league-worst 76.0 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	4	1.50	1.50	1.75	1.50	6.0
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	4	3.25	3.00	2.25	1.50	7.5
Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	4	3.00	3.00	2.00	1.75	8.2

Gould - The third-year kicker registered a season-best nine points in Week 4, but he also missed his first field goal of the year. With the Bears offense still struggling he should remain on the bench this week.

Hanson - Hanson has been surprisingly inaccurate thus far this season as he missed a field goal attempt for the third consecutive game in Week 4. Plus, he had an extra point blocked. He is getting a lot of opportunities for points right now, and against Washington he is a good starting option with a strong play.

Crosby - Crosby delivered his second double-digit output in four weeks with an 11-point effort in Minnesota. The rookie is playing well but has a tough matchup against the Bears. He can still be started as a flimsy No. 1 option or as a Bye-week replacement this Sunday.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Detroit Lions	4	27.2	2.25	3.5	1.00	0.4
Green Bay Packers	4	16.5	1.00	2.2	1.00	0.2

Lions - Detroit's defense made a ton of big plays in Week 4, recording six sacks, three interceptions and scoring a pair of touchdowns (one defensive and one on special teams) to make them an easy choice as the best fantasy defense in the league last week. They have a tougher matchup against Washington as the Redskins do a pretty good of protecting the passer and the football. Detroit is a weak No. 1 defense this Sunday.

Packers - Just read the above paragraph to see what a defense is capable of against the Bears. Meanwhile, the Packers did a nice of putting pressure on the Vikings as they recorded four sacks and forced a pair of turnovers. They also had an interception return for a touchdown called back on a penalty. Green Bay figures to be juiced up for their Week 5 appearance on Sunday Night Football, and they can be played as a high-end starting defense with a strong play against Chicago.