Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC North Fantasy Outlook

October 4, 2007 @ 17:03:31

By Ryan Patterson
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC North

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker hit a snag in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals, rushing for only 37 yards at 1.9 yards per carry. This is a significant deviation from the first three games where he averaged 5.0 yards per carry. In addition, Parker failed to score a touchdown for a second straight week, and he is falling far behind his average of one touchdown per game (combined rushing and receiving touchdowns) from 2006. Next week, Parker is up against the Seattle Seahawks who have allowed opposing running backs an average of 101.0 rush yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game. Last week, the Seahawks did not allow a rushing touchdown, so maybe Parker is due in Week 5. Parker is a moderate No. 2 running back option for Week 5.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap (hamstring), like Parker, has only one touchdown through four games. What's more frustrating is the fact Heap had only 36 receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns defense that has little business stopping anyone. Unfortunately, Heap finished the game with a hamstring injury and his status for Week 5 is currently uncertain. Next week he faces the San Francisco 49ers, who are currently ranked 20th in yards allowed to tight ends. This could be a good sign for Heap, if he plays. We list him as a moderate No. 1 fantasy option and a strong play in Week 5.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow (shoulder) made some fantasy owners nervous with his shoulder injury in Week 4, but he still played the game and finished with 96 receiving yards (bringing his year average to 91.75 yards per game). Like all the other players listed so far, Winslow has only one touchdown. This obviously makes him less of a commodity in touchdown-only leagues, but the yardage-league folks aren't complaining. Cleveland's offense seems to be hitting a stride and we're so confident in Winslow that we have ranked him as our top tight end in Week 5 against the New England Patriots who have allowed opposing tight ends an average of 39.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: The Ravens go against the 49ers in Week 5. Usual-starting quarterback Alex D. Smith (shoulder) looks like he'll miss next week and his replacement, quarterback Trent Dilfer, did not look that great in Week 4. In fact, the whole 49ers offense looked pretty bad. This could mean defensive opportunities for Baltimore and numerous punt-return opportunities (the Ravens have two punt-return touchdowns this year). Consider the Ravens as a good No. 1 option and a strong play in Week 5.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	3	236.0	0.67	0.67	5.3	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	4	241.0	2.25	1.25	2.8	0.25
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	201.8	2.00	0.75	14.0	0.00

McNair - McNair (groin) was able to finish the game last week, which is good for the Ravens because it may give them a chance to establish some offensive consistency. He ended the game with 307 yards, but he had to throw 53 times to get there. McNair is averaging an interception per touchdown pass, and although he could do well in Week 5, he might also stink or leave the game from an injury at any moment. Consider McNair a low No. 1 option or Bye week replacement for Week 5 against the 49ers.

Anderson - Up to this point, Anderson has played through each week with respectable numbers. Respectable enough to warrant regular starting consideration in many leagues (and there are few around today who remember the last time you could say that about a Browns quarterback, i.e. Bernie Kosar). Anderson threw for 204 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against the Ravens in Week 4. Next week, however, should be a real indicator as to how good the Browns offense is when they play the Patriots, who held the Cincinnati Bengals to 13 points last Monday night. The Patriots are allowing opposing quarterbacks an average of 179.0 passing yards per game (fourth-best in the league through Week 4) and 1.25 passing touchdowns per game. In addition, New England is making as many interceptions as they are allowing touchdowns. This could mean trouble for someone who is relatively inexperienced and will likely be doing a lot of frantic passing in an attempt to catch up. Anderson still has something to prove, which is why we list him as a low No. 1 option or Bye week replacement and a weak play against the Pats.

Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger threw for 244 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 4. Next Sunday, he faces the Seahawks and may still be without wide receiver Hines Ward (knee). Roethlisberger is averaging 2.00 passing touchdowns per game on the season. However, since Week 2 he has only averaged 1.33 touchdowns and 1.00 interception per game. Roethlisberger is a low No. 1 option or Bye week replacement and a weak play in Week 5.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	4	22.75 (31.41)	4.50 (32.76)	94.0	0.00	2.75	23.8	0.25
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	4	20.50 (37.67)	3.00 (48.03)	92.5	0.50	1.00	8.2	0.00

McGahee - McGahee failed to find the end zone again in Week 4 and still has only one receiving touchdown and no rushing touchdowns on the year. This is getting serious. Fortunately, he consistently runs for around 100 yards each game and last week ran for 104. Next week, McGahee is running against a San Francisco defense that has allowed an average of 113.2 yards per game to opposing running backs. McGahee could get over 100 yards again and who knows, maybe he'll find the end zone as well. McGahee is a moderate No. 1 option for Week 5.

Lewis - Lewis didn't exactly “stick it” to his old team in Week 4, as he rushed for only 64 yards at 2.8 yards per carry. His did, however, find the end zone for the second time this season. Most of us figured that his 216 rushing yards against the Bengals in Week 2 were the exception rather than the rule. Without that game, Lewis is averaging only 51.7 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game, which really isn't so far off of what the Patriots are allowing opposing running backs (67.8 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game). Lewis is a low No. 1 or high No. 2 fantasy back this week against New England.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	4	4.25 (5.87)	1.00 (7.28)	2.25	19.0	0.00
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	4	12.50 (17.26)	2.25 (16.38)	8.25	71.8	0.25
Braylon Edwards	Cleveland Browns	4	8.25 (15.16)	1.00 (16.01)	4.50	93.8	1.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	4	5.00 (9.19)	0.75 (12.01)	2.75	28.5	0.75
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	6.33 (7.83)	2.33 (17.89)	3.00	36.0	0.33
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	6.25 (10.31)	0.25 (2.56)	3.50	71.2	0.75

Clayton - Clayton recorded three receptions for 43 yards in Week 4. This was his best game so far in 2007, but he has yet to score a touchdown. Clayton hasn't done much to warrant regular starting consideration this year. For Week 5, he is a weak play and should be left on the bench.

Mason - Mason has quietly averaged just over 70 yards per game. He has one touchdown so far this season, and if he brought that average up to 0.5 per game, he could be a nice weekly No. 3 option. Mason is utilized as much as you could hope for, but there just aren't that many passing touchdowns to go around in Baltimore. Still, we have listed Mason as a moderate No. 3 fantasy wide receiver in Week 5 against the 49ers.

Edwards - Edwards has turned out to be a nice fantasy receiver, especially with his touchdown-per-game average. Last week against the Ravens, he recorded 97 yards and one touchdown. Edwards is also maintaining a very high yards-per-catch average (20.8 on the season); last week that average was 32.8. He has become a favored target of Anderson and consistently performs, making him a weekly option. Unfortunately, he must play against New England in Week 5 so he should be considered a moderate No. 1 receiver.

Jurevicius - Jurevicius is a decent red-zone target, and his value comes less in yards and more in touchdowns. Although he is only averaging just over 28 yards per game, he is scoring 0.75 touchdowns per game. Last week he had only two receptions for 10 yards but found the end zone for the third time this season. His potential for a touchdown in most games (if nothing else) makes him a moderate No. 3 option for Week 5.

Ward - Ward (knee) did not play last week and his status for Week 5 is again uncertain, although early indications are that he might be ready. Up to this point, Ward has not had the season most come to expect, but that may just be a matter of time. He is still heavily utilized, especially in the red zone. Monitor his situation throughout the week before considering him for your lineup.

Holmes - Holmes has done a nice job picking up offensive slack and is beginning to show the potential of becoming a regular fantasy starter. Last week he had the best game of his career to date, recording six receptions (tying his career-high) for 128 (career high) yards and two touchdowns (career high). Naturally, his numbers got a boost due to the absence of Ward, but it's good to see that he rose to the occasion. Holmes is currently a low No. 1 or high No. 2 fantasy option against the Seahawks in Week 5.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	4.50 (7.42)	0.75 (7.67)	3.25	49.2	0.25

Miller - Miller had three receptions for 46 yards in Week 4 and has not had a touchdown since Week 1. Miller's utilization percentage could be considered only average among starting tight ends, which means his respective fantasy owners are likely disappointed so far this season. Consider him a moderate-to-low No. 1 or Bye week replacement and a weak play this Sunday.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	4	1.75	1.75	3.25	2.50	9.2
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	4	3.25	3.25	1.75	1.50	7.8
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	3.00	3.00	2.25	2.25	9.8

Stover - Stover had a bad game last week, missing 46-yard and 41-yard field goals, bringing his season field-goal average to 76.9 percent. Had he made those two, he would be ranked second among kickers in points scored. As it is, however, he still ranks fifth and is called on an average of 3.25 times per game to kick a field goal. Because Stover attempts significantly more field goals than extra points (both traditionally and currently) he is our top fantasy option for Week 5 and a strong play versus San Francisco.

Dawson - Dawson was perfect last week with two field goals and three extra point attempts. Although his percentage is good, he doesn't account for as many game points as a number of other kickers. In addition, next week could be a low-scoring game for the Browns as they travel to New England, so we recommend that you look elsewhere for a starting kicker. Dawson is a weak play this week and should be left on the bench.

Reed - Reed is scoring a lot of points for his team and is currently ranked third among kickers with 9.8 points per game. Reed also remains perfect on the year in both field goals and extra point attempts. Consider him a moderate No. 1 kicking option for Week 5

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cleveland Browns	4	29.5	0.75	1.0	1.25	0.25
Pittsburgh Steelers	4	11.8	0.75	3.5	1.25	0.50

Browns - Cleveland's defense has not been much to write home about so far this season. Their special teams have been a little better. They have one kick-return touchdown and often gain significant return yards. Unless your league greatly rewards kick and punt return yards, however, it's best to leave these boys on the bench for Week 5.

Steelers - Pittsburgh has been strong in the points allowed and are currently ranked fourth in sacks. Their fantasy-defensive scoring opportunities might be few against the Seahawks, however. Consider the Steelers a low No. 1 or Bye-week replacement this Sunday.