IDP: Overvalued Players

August 31, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Defensive Linemen

Defensive End Trevor Pryce, Baltimore Ravens

The good news was Pryce put up the best year of his career in 2006 with 13 sacks and 47 total tackles. The bad news was that it took him until 2006 to post these numbers after posting comparable numbers in 1999 and 2000. He has come close to the same production in the past, recording 25 sacks and 92 total tackles between the 1999-2000 seasons with the Denver Broncos. However, he had failed to reach double-digit sacks in a season for five consecutive years before finally breaking the plateau again in 2006. At 32 years old, and with the loss of linebacker Adalius Thomas to the Ravens' defense, Pryce has a good chance of not reaching the same totals he had last year. Pryce is still worth picking as a low-end No. 2 defensive lineman.

Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp, Oakland Raiders

Sapp was solid in 2006, posting up 10 sacks and 47 total tackles on the year. There are some things that point to continued success for Sapp. For one, he plays on a very good defense with one of the better defensive coordinators coaching him. Another positive is he is slimming down this offseason. After playing the 2006 season at 334 pounds, Sapp is officially listed as 300 pounds and has reportedly dropped to 282 pounds. Unfortunately, there are just as many negatives associated with Sapp for the 2007 season. He is 34 years old and should start to slow down soon. The other is his recent struggles getting to the quarterback. The 2006 season was the first time in six years that Sapp reached double-digit sack totals. It is more likely age and history will catch up with him in 2007, making him worth grabbing as a low-end No. 2 defensive lineman in fantasy leagues.

Defensive End Andre Carter, Washington Redskins

Carter finished the 2006 season with 56 total tackles, a fairly decent number for a defensive end. Unfortunately he had just six sacks on the season, which is a little low for a defensive end. Even worse is that he has only had more than 10 sacks in a season once in his six-year career, when he finished the 2002 season with 12.5 sacks. Not counting 2002, Carter has just 25.5 sacks in five seasons of play. The team acquired three new starters on defense for the upcoming season, grabbing linebacker London Fletcher-Baker, cornerback Fred Smoot and picking strong safety LaRon Landry in the first round of the draft. Carter should be able to improve a little, but he's still not worth picking any higher than as a No. 3 defensive lineman.

Linebackers

Linebacker Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers

Merriman is a sack machine, grabbing 17 sacks in just 12 games in 2006. However, he managed just 62 total tackles and has only 119 tackles in 27 career games. Linebacker is typically the position that gives fantasy league owners the majority of their tackle numbers for a season. With just 62 total tackles, Merriman performs more like a top-tier defensive end instead of a top-tier linebacker. With this in mind, Merriman is still worth picking as a No. 2 linebacker and has more value in sack-heavy leagues. However, he shouldn't go ahead of players such as Miami Dolphins linebacker Zach Thomas, Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans or anyone else capable of posting up a very high number of tackles on the season.

Linebacker Adalius Thomas, New England Patriots

Thomas is another linebacker that performs more like a defensive lineman. He finished the year with 11 sacks and 83 total tackles, which are very good numbers for a defensive end. He is moving to a new team this year, where he is expected to play a little of everything. The team plans to have Thomas play all over on defense, including dropping into coverage or moving up to the line of scrimmage in their dime package. While the versatility role does help his overall numbers, Thomas falls into the same category that San Diego Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman falls into. He's someone worth grabbing as a good No. 2 linebacker, and he should not be picked before the high-tackle linebackers go.

Linebacker Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens

Even though he had a career-high five sacks on the season, he managed just 103 total tackles in 14 games in 2006. That's a low number of tackles for a linebacker, and he didn't help make up the difference by bringing down quarterbacks. He'll also have to worry about how the loss of linebacker Adalius Thomas will affect him. Thomas was someone that opposing offenses really had to worry about, as he could literally play anywhere on defense and was capable of drawing attention away from Lewis. Thomas is now with the New England Patriots, making Lewis the main focus of attention again. Lewis is worth grabbing as a No. 2 linebacker for your fantasy team.

Defensive Backs

Strong Safety Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens

While very good, Reed's numbers don't benefit a fantasy team too much. He finished 2006 with 59 total tackles and five interceptions. Like linebacker Ray Lewis, he will have to worry about how the loss of linebacker Adalius Thomas will affect him. Reed is more of a safety that is capable of approaching 70 total tackles and six interceptions on a season, making him worth picking as a No. 2 defensive back in IDP leagues.

Strong Safety Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Usually he can at least get in the 80-tackle range, but he could only finish 2006 with 62 total tackles. He also finished with five interceptions on the year, but his lack of coverage skills was again exposed. Williams is expected to play closer to the line of scrimmage in some situations next year, which should help him improve his tackle numbers. He is capable of breaking 90 total tackles on a season, as he has done it twice already in his five-year career. However, he doesn't intercept too many passes and rarely records sacks. Williams is worth picking as a low-end No. 2 defensive back, but he has the potential to play better if he can return to his rookie form.

Cornerback Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars

Mathis finished the season with 63 total tackles and eight interceptions last season. While his numbers look good, there are some question marks for him for the 2007 season. The biggest question mark is how he will adapt to playing with two new safeties. Strong safety Donovin Darius is now with the Oakland Raiders and free safety Deon Grant is with the Seattle Seahawks. Gerald Sensabaugh will work at strong safety and rookie Reggie Nelson will be the team's free safety. It would also be nice to see Mathis improve on his number of tackles. After finishing his rookie season with 81 total tackles, he hasn't had more than 69 tackles in a season. Mathis still should be able to grab five interceptions, making him a good No. 3 defensive back for your fantasy team.

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Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.

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