October 5, 2012 @ 14:22:50 PDT
It's wise to reserve judgment on a slumping team coming off a bye; this extra time usually facilitates extra rest for their wounded and preparation for the squad's sore spots. Such instances present opportunities to target players.
For Week 5, however, the Colts, have already ruled out left guard Joe Reitz (knee) and have center Samson Satele (knee) as a game-time decision; their interior front five has already been a weakness. The Green Bay Packers have B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett waiting to clog up the middle, meaning Brown once again will lean toward testing the outside in order to move forward. GB has faced much better rushing games and should have less trouble than usual in that department.
Don't take the expected dud as the nail in Brown's coffin, though. Opportunistic owners should use it as a trigger for bargain-hunting instincts. Brown's big-play ability alone should be enough to motivate you into acquiring him for a song.
After Sunday, Brown has a mixed bag of matchups, some of them quite promising. Basing future predictions on current statistical analysis doesn't always translate, but to the right stands his remaining schedule, complete with opponents' rankings versus RBs in standard scoring leagues through four weeks.
That amounts to six total matchups against five teams within the top 10 fantasy pushovers for opposing RBs. The games sandwiching Houston during the fake football postseason make you think a bit optimistically, right?
This isn't denying that for as long as Indianapolis' interior fails to make a consistent push, Brown will be a risky flex play. Still, the Colts will keep him as their in-space weapon, using him to his strength. Those matchups give Brown, who's already had his off-week, beer-goggle allure for bye-starved owners. (Actually, I'll say it's more like the buzzed-but-in-control zone where your confidence peaks and your wits remain practical.)
Brown resembles Doug Martin in that his workload will determine his value for the rest of the fantasy season. Brown isn't the first-rounder Indy drafted him to be, but the shifty tumbler still has plenty of time to help 2012 fantasy owners.
Taking a chance early in the fantasy season without having to pay extravagant wages frequently creates a profit. When it comes to fantasy carriers, Brown carries one of the lowest price tags. So do his replacements. Those aren't bad situations to target for low-risk, high-yield investments.
About Tim Heaney
Tim's work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly, among numerous outlets, and recognized as a finalist in the Fantasy Sports Writers Association awards. The Boston University alum, who competes in the prestigious LABR and Tout Wars, has won numerous industry leagues in both baseball and football.
He appears frequently, including every Sunday, on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, as well as every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore.
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