by KFFL Staff on February 25, 2011 @ 16:49:22 PDT

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Player	POS	TM	The what for
Justin Morneau	1B	MIN	Not putting myself in position to rely on him. Concussion history frightens me, not to mention his clockwork 2H fades
Elvis Andrus	SS	TEX	How much does he stand out from, say, Rafael Furcal? It's an upside, faith pick; 'til Andrus shows me some power and BA, he ain't in my top 7 SS
Trevor Cahill	SP	OAK	Isn't this a tired lesson? Sure, GB nice, but few K's. BABIP- and LOB-fueled success typically comes back to normal. He'll have growing pains, too
Pedro Alvarez	3B	PIT	HATE to be this drastic, especially w/ his upside. At the right point, sure, I'd take him. But work ethic, BA issues keeping me from overspending
Matt Garza	SP	CHC	Move out of AL East not an instant cure for FB, K/9 woes. BB/9 is his calling card, but HR/9 climbing. Now he's at Wrigley Field? Pass

Player	POS	TM	The what for
Jose Bautista	OF	TOR	Likely on most people's lists, but we all know he won't repeat the 54 dingers. Thirty is possible, but weak BA to go with isn't worth the price.
Matt Garza	SP	CHC	Guy is overvalued. Period. Forget about the no-hitter; his high FB% and HR/9 make the move to Wrigley scarier. No thanks.
Adrian Beltre	3B	TEX	Is he really only 31? Already injured in ST. Contract year responsible for great '10 numbers? High BABIP last year will make him a huge BA disappointment.
Rickie Weeks	2B	MIL	One healthy year shouldn't mask injury risk. No more updside now. Poor CT% and high K% make him a BA enigma. Doubt he will approach 30 homers again.
Jered Weaver	SP	LAA	Dominance spiked last year; pay for a regression, not a repeat. Fly-ball allowance will raise his ERA to something closer to 3.50.

Player	POS	TM	The what for
Grady Sizemore	OF	CLE	Lingering concerns (even from Sizemore himself) about his knee; power in question, and SBs may not be there with a bum knee.
Derek Jeter	SS	NYY	Dropped off in a major way in 2010; could be even worse entering an age-37 season; the risk isn't worth a potential minimal uptick in stats.
Trevor Cahill	SP	OAK	Could make the overvalued argument, but a low K rate (5.31/9), a little bit of 2010 luck, a poor offense (again) and more tape on him have me worried.
Jorge Posada	C	NYY	Expecting Russell Martin to outshine him; age, a decline in PA and injury concerns should be enough to scare you.
Jonathan Papelbon	CL	BOS	Statistical trends in the wrong direction, could be traded during the season (may not be all bad); has Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks waiting for his job.

Player	POS	TM	The what for
Justin Morneau	1B	MIN	Love the hitter, feel for the human being, but have little interest in a player drafted so highly who has to sit if a teammate pats him on the head after a HR.
Adrian Beltre	3B	TEX	Something smells funny in Texas. Beltre is a rotten commodity on his own, when $ isn't on the line. Fear is that new location may only add to this lie.
Colby Rasmus	OF	STL	Quality player, but have concerns about BA correction and repeat of HR rate, coupled with possible effects of turmoil in STL, poor relationship with skip.
Grady Sizemore	OF	CLE	It's too soon to expect much more than tepid production in first action after microfracture surgery. Will be a target in 2012, maybe after the 2011 break.
Trevor Cahill	SP	OAK	Can't knock the GB prompter who earns Brandon Webb comparisons, but Webb struck a few people out, didn't walk too many and posted realistic ERAs.