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Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat - NL
by Tim Heaney
on February 25, 2011 @ 06:30:06
PDT
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In fantasy baseball, the closer position remains volatile. Rarely does every closer hang on to the job for an entire season - injuries, poor performance and managerial decisions cloud a team's bullpen picture. Should you be concerned about a struggling stopper? Which relievers are climbing the depth chart? Have any injuries popped up? KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat keeps you informed when you're looking for saves. Key
Atlanta BravesCloser: Craig Kimbrel Understudy: Jonny Venters Though manager Fredi Gonzalez has toyed with the idea of a platoon sitch, Kimbrel, who turns 23 in May, has the early edge. His K foundation doesn't belittle the title. We're talking Carlos Marmol-esque here, for better (100-strikeout upside) or worse (crippling walk rates). Closers can get by with shaky control, but what about someone with little MLB experience who walked 5.66 per nine at Triple-A last year? The southpaw Venters, a converted starter, found his niche in relief last season and was useful in fantasy without saves. His grounder inducement and control (though still not stringent) have trumped Kimbrel's so far. His taming of righty bats works in his favor, too.
Both have small MLB sample sizes and carry control flaws, but Venters marinated in a full season's worth of work with Atlanta last year. Kimbrel has widely been dubbed the closer of the future, but what if the future isn't 2011? If you invest in Kimbrel, you should probably purchase Venters, too. Braves bullpens typically nurture save chances, so this is a case when handcuffing two talented arms isn't a roster-crippling idea. As enticing as Kimbrel's makeup is, his hype could jack his price up to those of more stable closers. Beware. Venters has less risk and presents similar profit potential. He might not outright take the gig, but he's an attractive gamble after the attractive, established closers are gone. Job security score: 2 Health score: 5 Florida MarlinsCloser: Leo Nunez Understudy: Clay Hensley Lurkers: Ryan Webb, Edward Mujica Nunez's best skills season still wasn't good enough to keep his hold on the job all season; he blew up in August and ceded the job to Hensley. The Fish are starting 2011 with Nunez in the role. Rekindling his confidence in his slider, which he abandoned early on last year, will be a good start toward him keeping it. His notable growth in grounders, K/9 and BB/9 shouldn't be written off, but he's still erratic.
Hensley's late-season luck played into his stopper success: .156 BABIP and 93 percent LOB in August, .200 and 100 percent in his seven-save September. Even with the explosion of his swinging-strike percentage, the former starter is more deception than power, and he's in line for widespread fluctuation, even with his successful curveball growth. Webb and Mujica boast the profile to close - velocity, ground balls, control - with Webb having slightly more sleeper value, especially in NLs, because Mujica is an option for long relief or the occasional spot start. Nunez's 56 saves in the last two seasons were mainly the result of a lack of competition; Florida added two enticing arms to the mix and isn't totally convinced by Nunez's capabilities. It's safe to be skeptical of his long-term hold. For now, he's the best of a heaping pile of mediocre, and just because he's in the lead doesn't mean he's worth a strong investment. You win your league over six months, not based on draft day roles. Job security score: 3 Health score: 5 Los Angeles DodgersCloser: Jonathan Broxton Understudy: Hong-Chih Kuo Lurkers: Kenley Jansen Mighty ... fallen ... etc. Broxton imploded in 2010. He lost some movement, velocity and confidence. These weren't complete shockers given his erratic track record. Like its acting, producing, gophering and food-serving gigs, LA has two capable backups clawing for more work. But like in LA, dreams don't always come true. Kuo has elite skills but still has kid gloves because of his shaky health record. The enticing Jansen has overpowering stuff but carries control issues befitting his limited pitching background. The K-heavy arms in waiting still make this a prime speculation situation. Then again, it's also a solid buying opportunity for a stopper who, when right, has No. 1 stuff. Working in his favor is the team's recommitment to holding him at the back end; though it's not as long as in past years, his leash isn't tight. Plus, Broxton's brutality hid productive K/9 and grounder rates - they were just ... not Broxtoney. Risks are mitigated by his falling cost. Here's a potential steal for his 2009 numbers, with the hope that Don Mattingly didn't count Joe Torre's bullpen management as gospel. Job security score: 3 Health score: 4 Pittsburgh PiratesCloser: Joel Hanrahan Understudy: Evan Meek
Hanrahan was named closer. Buy, right? Seems like it: Pittsburgh encouraged him to use his entire arsenal after acquiring him in '09, which has helped breed his elite dominance and budding control. He has closer experience - mostly rough with the Washington Nationals in '08, but better with the Pirates. His stint as primary stopper post-Octavio Dotel reflected his improving skills, even with some rough patches. Hanny's price might escalate with the official news, but if you're lucky, many will be driven away by his uni. Optimally, he should be your third mixed closer; though his skills are ownable anyway, he hasn't exactly shown he can hold a saves job for extended periods. His downside is as colossal as the K-fueled power he offers. The grounder-friendly Meek ain't too shabby, either, and as with Venters, his presumably dirt-cheap cost as backup - maybe a post-draft pickup down the road - could wind up stealing you double-digit saves, at least. He can help you, too, while he's waiting for save opps, if you have the roster depth and patience. Job security score: 3 Health score: 5 Washington NationalsCloser: TBD Understudy: Drew Storen Lurkers: Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez The competition is still open between these four. If you're drafting one, pick the 22-year-old heir apparent Storen. The Nats should just get the foreplay over with: His post-May control showed why he didn't need much farm ball. If they don't settle on Storen, this will become messy before they come to their senses ... if Washington does. Clippard and Burnett have grown leaps and bounds since their moves to the 'pen but appear to be more useful to Washington in the seventh and eighth innings. H-Rod, he of triple-digit heat, is a wild card in this race and on the mound. Unlisted Cole Kimball, a prospect, also chucks gas. Picking anyone other than Storen in a mixed draft would deservedly make you the draft room joker. Job security score: TBD Health score: TBD Mound meetings
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat |
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