Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft: Round 4
Rios finally returned to the promise he showed with the Blue Jays from 2006-2008 posting a solid .284-89-21-88-34 line. He gives me a nice mixture of power and speed to compliment my first two picks. He also gives me two quality outfielders. I'm expecting a .280-90-20-90-30 line. I also considered Ian Kinsler, but didn't want two injury-prone Rangers.
The BA I gained from the V-Mart pick allowed this one. I usually like to take Adam Dunn. Why not take his keystone clone? If he hits .270, this is golden. I didn't want to deal with Ian Kinsler's annual DL excursions. Since I have to dive into worse player pools later, taking stability elsewhere took precedent.
I'm a sucker for the five-category upside. Even if he doesn't bounce back he'll provide me with decent contributions in multiple categories. If he fulfills his potential, look out.
Top pitchers were going fast so my turn to pick one has come. Lincecum was snatched under my nose, which may be for the better. Adam Wainwright is projected to have more WINS than him and more than CC Sabathia and is projected to have a better ERA.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I'll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home.
With the starting pitching in Philadelphia, it's hard to imagine the Phillies losing many games in 2011. Cliff Lee is by no means Roy Halladay, but he's been a damn good starter the past few years, and he seems pumped up to return to the City of Brotherly Love. I really don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for Lee to win 20 games this year while still ranking at the top of the ERA, WHIP, and strikeout categories in the National League.
If Posey were to hit 30 HR, 100 RBIs, 90 Runs (pretty much double last year's output in the second half), he'd arguably be THE top player in baseball. Of course, he won't do that. Even a guy who drafts two catchers in the first four rounds has enough sense to see that. Still, 1,000+ AB of triple-plus production from my dynamic duo of catchers will pay off ... depending on how I finish the rest of this draft.
Needed power at this point, and he promises it in bunches. Jump in flyball rate, contact rate say last season was real. Expect some regression, but 30-35 HR seems possible, so this is a reasonable point in draft to grab him. Some risk, potentially high reward.
Felt now was a time to get an elite pitcher with about half off the board. I wasn't sure how many would be left when I picked again. I took Lester over C.C. Sabathia and Josh Johnson. It was a close call for me but I like Lester's upside a tad more.
First of several picks where I'll deviate from my stale strategy (nearly took V-Mart in Round 3). Having a couple of quality catchers may give an advantage over what awaits at all positions much later if offense remains at a premium. McCann appears ready to settle after experimenting with methods to improve his vision and comfort. Power remains a given, and to me he's a line-drive, .280 hitter, nothing worse.
I was targeting catcher Brian McCann here, but Nick snatched him out from under me. That's OK. The nice collection of second-tier outfielders I figured would be available still were. The highest-rated on my board were Ichiro Suzuki and Jayson Werth. With Hanley Ramirez already in the fold, I decided I could get more speed later so I opted for Werth's power/speed combo. And I do think he'll run a little more in Washington this year. That's probably why I have him rated a bit higher than others.
Admittedly, I'm not a fan of drafting catchers this early. When you have a two catcher league, though, sometimes you have to adjust your strategy. I'm ok having one average catcher, but I don't want to be at a true disadvantage at the position. With Soto, I'm getting 20 home runs and 65-70 RBI - the most reliable of the remaining catchers and not too much of a reach here.
Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28
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