Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 5

by KFFL Staff on August 16, 2010 @ 11:30:00 PDT's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their thoughts and analysis as to why they chose the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft, as this league will be played out during the course of the 2010 fantasy football season, so each participant is drafting to win this year.

This is our second Fantasy Analysis Draft of the summer. Click here to check out the first one and see how players are changing in value!

How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.

1) Jason Witten, tight end, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Matt Pitzer, USA Today | Team Roster

Reason: One of this season's compelling stories is the number of elite tight ends available, including guys such as Witten, the San Diego Chargers' Antonio Gates and the San Francisco 49ers' Vernon Davis. I was choosing between Witten and Davis, and made the choice I did because Witten is more proven over the long haul, less likely to slip back than Davis and has a more capable quarterback. As with my prior quarterback pick, having the top slots filled at other positions allowed me to go after the tight end here.

Others Considered: San Francisco 49ers TE Vernon Davis

Standards Set: The big thing I want out of Witten is more than the two TDs he had last season. Witten has averaged 1,042 yards the past three seasons and should get back there with 80-90 catches.

2) Jahvid Best, running back, Detroit Lions
Team: Ian Riley, | Team Roster

Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown
Can Brown stay healthy?

Reason: Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has called plays for NFL offenses for 10 seasons, and in eight of them he had a running back amass at least 1,141 total yards. He likes to find his guy and ride him. Best may be small, but he has the tools to be a three-down back if he can withstand the punishment. He will start from Week 1 and should see 18-plus touches a game, making him a solid RB2 that I'll have the luxury of using as my flex.

Others Considered: Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno, Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte

Standards Set: Using Kevin Smith's workload last season as a guide, I am predicting 225 carries for 1,025 yards, 50 receptions for 475 yards and eight total touchdowns.

3) Ronnie Brown, running back, Miami Dolphins
Team: Jim Day, | Team Roster

Reason: Brown is a risky pick because of his injury history, but in 22 starts over the last two years he has 20 touchdowns. He is an exciting player who can do it all. He can run inside or out, is an excellent receiver and can even throw the occasional touchdown pass. It is still a risk because Brown has only played in 16 games in a season once in his career, but Brown is fully healthy now and looking strong in camp. I look for a nice bounceback year.

Others Considered: New England Patriots QB Tom Brady, Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte

Standards Set: This pick works for me if Brown can rush 200 times for a little over 850 yards, score 10 touchdowns and add 30 receptions for another 300 yards and one touchdown.

4) Matt Forte, running back, Chicago Bears
Team: William Del Pilar, | Team Roster

Reason: Last season I was on the money on Forte and predicted bust status for him. I'm sure Time Warner Cable's Herbie Teope, another KFAD owner will grudgingly agree after our phone conversation last year! However, this year, he's healthy and reports are that he has his bounce, cut move and strength back. Two great training camp updates here and here helped convince me. Chester Taylor, No. 1b in many eyes, has not looked good enough to challenge Forte, and it is possible Taylor - as early as last season - may have lost a step. I'll take my chances and have no regrets with Forte as a fifth-round pick ... provided I grab quality depth at the position.

Others Considered: This one was tough because it came down to the Denver Broncos' Knowshon Moreno (hamstring), who I believe may have greater upside but a hamstring tear could keep him most of the training camp practices and preseason games, plus a deep depth chart (Correll Buckhalter, LenDale White and Justin Fargas) scared me away.

Standards Set: As my flex position starter, I'll be happy if Forte reaches 1,300 combined yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but it's his potential for 50-plus receptions that has me excited. I do like these numbers even more: KFFL expectations.

5) Knowshon Moreno, running back, Denver Broncos
Team: Tony Holm, | Team Roster

Reason: At some point in every draft, the value meter tips to the buy side and that's what happened with Moreno (hamstring). He's a talented running back whose stock has been depressed due to his training camp injury and Denver's subsequent signings of LenDale White and Justin Fargas. Earlier in the year Moreno was a solid second- or third-round selection, and in the fifth, he represents good value, albeit he's somewhat of a risky proposition. He is supposed to be 100 percent healthy for Week 1 - we'll see if that happens. There's no real competition from anyone else on the roster; this is Moreno's job clear and simple.

Others Considered: Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones

Standards Set: Moreno is a decent receiver out of the backfield and can contribute to a fantasy team in many ways. 1,000 yards on the ground and another 300 yards in the air with 40 or so receptions would be a job well done.

6) Vernon Davis, tight end, San Francisco 49ers
Team: David Dorey, The Huddle | Team Roster

Seattle Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
What kind of value does Forsett have?

Reason: I knew in this format that I wanted to draft a top tight end since the PPR format makes them equals with wideouts and even running backs for those elite players. As it worked out, I got Davis, who I have ranked as the No. 1 tight end left since Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark had already been taken. The deepest position in the NFL is wideout so while I still need two starters there, I can get those later. The top ones are long gone, and the running backs are getting ugly. Taking Davis, who turned in 78 catches for 965 yards and an NFL-best 13 scores for this position, gives me an advantage at tight end. He should be better this year with a full offseason with Alex D. Smith throwing to him in the same offense no less.

Others Considered: Green Bay Packers TE Jermichael Finley

Standards Set: I love Davis, and he could challenge for top marks in any category. I am expecting around 85 catches for 1,000 yards and 10 scores, at least, and he could just as easily do more.

7) Tom Brady, quarterback, New England Patriots
Team: Ryan Lester, Lester's Legends | Team Roster

Reason: In a pass-oriented league, it is important to have a good QB. He came back from a knee injury and had 4,398 yards and 28 TDs. His knee should be even stronger this year, and with Randy Moss in a contract year, I expect big things from TB.

Others Considered: Minnesota Vikings WR Percy Harvin, Philadelphia Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin

Standards Set: 4,400 yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs.

8) Felix Jones, running back, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Herbie Teope, Time Warner Cable | Team Roster

Reason: One of the more frustrating things in Texas Hold'em No-Limit poker is getting dealt A-K preflop and promptly missing the flop, turn and river. However, it never fails on the very next hand, as the flop comes A-K-A. That's called "flop lag," and it could happen in 2010 with Jones, who was plenty hyped last summer. Of course, Jones missed by a mile in 2009, and the Cowboys have been high on him since taking him in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. While Marion Barber III will remain involved, especially near the goal line, there's not much downside to swinging for the fences with the explosive Jones. He's a threat to go the distance on any given touch, and I'll take that for this roster's No. 3 running back.

Others Considered: Buffalo Bills RB C.J. Spiller

Standards Set: Jones carries plenty of upside to produce 900 yards rushing and six touchdowns. Moreover, the Cowboys want to get Jones involved in the passing game, so 30 catches for 225 yards is attainable.

9) Reggie Bush, running back, New Orleans Saints
Team: Jeff Tefertiller, | Team Roster

Reason: I needed a RB2 after waiting so long. Bush is now healthy and can be a top-10 PPR back as evidenced by his strong 2008 season. The key for me is that he is now healthy.

Others Considered: Bush was the last in this RB tier for me. I was hoping for either him or Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno.

Standards Set: I am hoping for 50-plus receptions, 1,200 total yards and a few TDs

10) Justin Forsett, running back, Seattle Seahawks
Team: Cory J. Bonini, | Team Roster

Reason: I like Forsett as a third back this year. He has RB2 potential and doesn't exactly have stiff competition for the starting job. I expect a rotation to some degree, but Forsett's talents should win out. He is a PPR threat and could excel under the tutelage of offensive line coach Alex Gibbs.

Others Considered: I had my sights set on New Orleans Saints RB Reggie Bush, who went one pick before me.

Standards Set: I think 1,150 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and nine total scores are well within reach.

San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers
Too early for Rivers?

11) C.J. Spiller, running back, Buffalo Bills
Team: Paul Hickey, | Team Roster

Reason: The most glaring trend I've noticed in drafts I've participated in this year is that the running back position isn't really as deep as many think it is. That's why I felt I needed to get Spiller as my RB3. He had by far the most upside of the backs remaining. He's going to be the Bills starter early on in 2010, if not right away, and I believe he has the most disguised value and is one of the most consistently overlooked players in early drafts.

Others Considered: Philadelphia Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin, Minnesota Vikings WR Percy Harvin

Standards Set: Look for the rook to rack up 900-1,100 rushing yards, 200-300 receiving yards, 30-40 catches and anywhere between 5-9 TDs.

12) Philip Rivers, quarterback, San Diego Chargers
Team: Adam Zdroik, | Team Roster

Reason: I basically just drafted Rivers in the sixth round. He most likely fell because of the Vincent Jackson situation, but it's not like he lost Antonio Gates too. This was a pretty easy choice because if I passed on him now, I would have ended up with an unreliable running back and been forced to take someone like Matt Ryan as my No. 1 QB.

Others Considered: Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis, San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Jackson

Standards Set: 3,900 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. My expectations are around the same from what he had last year. The Jackson situation obviously hurts him, but I think he will be able to overcome it with the other weapons here.

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Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II | Scoring Rules | Team Rosters

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