Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 4
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their thoughts and analysis as to why they chose the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft, as this league will be played out during the course of the 2010 fantasy football season, so each participant is drafting to win this year.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.
Reason: I could have gone with an unsure running back or even broke into the quarterback territory, but I decided to go with the top reception target in the league. Welker is technically my third wide receiver in a PPR league. What's to hate about this pick? He hasn't caught fewer than 111 receptions in the past three seasons and it looks like he should be ready to go by Week One.
Standards Set: 100 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards, six touchdowns. I definitely want to see more touchdowns out of him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed 120 catches again if he can play at least 14 games.
Reason: I wanted to lock up my starting RB situation, and Stewart was the best back available by far on my board. RB isn't as deep as some folks are saying it is, so it's important to draft two in the first four rounds.
Reason: I never take a tight end this early, but Gates presented equal or better upside and value in comparison to the wide receivers I was looking at. A No. 2 receiver may have been smarter since the tight end position is so deep, but Gates posts No. 2 WR numbers. I chose Beanie Wells with my previous pick, but I should have held off. I was hoping I'd get New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker (knee) here, and in a worst-case scenario I could have had New York Giants wideout Steve E. Smith. It wasn't in the cards, apparently.
Standards Set: I'm expecting a great season from Gates: 80-85 receptions for 1,050-1,100 yards and 10 or more scores.
Reason: I wanted either the New York Giants' Steve E. Smith or the New England Patriots' Wes Welker, but neither made it back to me, so I went in another direction. I like the way Benson played to end the 2009 season. He looks good running the ball and should have another decent year.
Standards Set: I am expecting 1,200 total yards and maybe 10 touchdowns. The Bengals could have a big offensive season.
Reason: It's one thing to read how great Bowe has looked in training camp, but quite another seeing it. Thankfully, one of the hats I wear for Time Warner Cable's Metro Sports in Kansas City is credentialed sports media member, which means covering live sporting events, such as Chiefs training camp. Bowe, who couldn't catch a cold in 2009 en route to 47 catches for 589 yards while also missing time with a suspension, was impressive the opening weekend of training camp. The fourth-year pro caught virtually everything thrown his way, including diving snags in traffic, and continues to show commitment to becoming one of the league's top receivers. Of course, practices versus regular season action are two different things. However, I was high on Bowe before the recent "eye test" and there's no backing down now.
Standards Set: Bowe is two seasons removed from 86 catches for 1,022 yards and seven touchdowns, solid production considering the Chiefs went through quarterback Tyler Thigpen, Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard in 2008. Expect a rebound season with Matt Cassel under center, and anything less than 85 catches for 1,200 yards in a Charlie Weis offense would be a disappointment.
Reason: Ocho bounced back from a pathetic 2008 showing with a 72-1,047-9 season. Terrell Owens' arrival should loosen defenses for Ocho. I don't think the two outspoken WRs will cause problems, rather they should feed off each other. They will be competing for attention, which should benefit fantasy owners.
Standards Set: 80 catches, 1,100 total yards, seven TDs
Reason: I was ecstatic making Addai my RB2 with a 4:07 pick. Sweet! I already had my QB, RB1 and WR1 and there's nothing exciting going on in wideouts anymore. I still think it is too early to take a tight end despite Gates being taken before me. So that left me wanting a running back. I only had two players on that second tier of runners left – Addai and Knowshon Moreno. I love the Denver schedule, but the backfield is still a question, and Moreno did not set the world on fire last year, either. People have downgraded Addai much too far. He was the seventh best RB in this league last year and I owned him then. Donald Brown? Didn't believe it last year and don't believe it this year. Addai is in the final year of his contract and plays in the Colts' offense. Love it.
Standards Set: I'm looking for something similar to last year. I expect around 800 yards rushing, 340 yards on 40 catches and 12 touchdowns. And I think he's more likely to do more than less.
Reason: I'm a big believer in making sure you are one of the three teams that come away with one of Clark, Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis in your 2010 drafts. Especially in this draft, a 16-rounder with a 10-starter requirement, I plan to roll with just one tight end so I can bulk up elsewhere; therefore, I want that one tight end to be the best I can get. No matter who the wide receivers are in Indianapolis, Clark is Peyton Manning's security blanket and that won't change anytime soon.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: He only caught 100 balls for 1,106 yards and 10 TDs in 2009. A repeat performance will do.
Reason: This was an easy one. I've figured out over drafts that the top four quarterbacks tend to go between Round 2 and Round 4. I believe the Cowboys will come out throwing this year. They have a strong rushing attack, and all three running backs are capable pass receivers. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is going to allow Romo to improvise more, and if you look at it, he has too many receiving options to fail. TE Jason Witten, RB Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, the wideouts, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and with the potential to lose his starting job, expect Roy Williams to improve. Saying it's too early to grab a quarterback is ridiculous when you have six elite quarterbacks then the rest. Also, can you grab a capable replacement once the season starts? No, so you better grab an elite player if possible. I view this position just as I do the running backs. Grab quality and depth.
Others Considered: No one, once the top three of Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees and Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning went, I knew I would take Romo with my next pick.
Standards Set: I fully expect him to approach 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns if he doesn't get hurt (or his wideouts). I believe it will be a career year in 2010 for Romo! KFFL Expectations.
Reason: Ward had 95 receptions and 1,167 yards; both were his most since 2003. Even at 34 he is still getting the job done. Some expect his numbers to drop with the Ben Roethlisberger suspension, but I think that backup QB Byron Leftwich will definitely look to Ward often. I don't expect a big drop in receptions, and with my first two WRs being big-play guys with fewer receptions, I wanted a WR3 that would get a lot of targets.
Standards Set: Ward may not duplicate his 2009 numbers, but he should still have 85 receptions, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. I am happy with those numbers from my WR3.
Reason: With 21 receivers already off the board at this point, and only one being on my roster, this selection was more about necessity than best available on the board. I like the fact that Sims-Walker had 110 targets last season in a run-first offense and is loaded with talent but hate the checkered health resume and how poorly he finished last season.
Standards Set: Although I see him missing a game or two, he should still catch 70 passes for 950 yards and six scores.
Reason: If I wanted a top-tier quarterback, I figured I better take one here because I would not pick again before the end of the sixth round. I usually like to build my team around an elite QB - even when scoring systems are not tilted toward the quarterback. And without a compelling valuation at another position, and with my top slots filled at RB and WR, I felt Schaub was a reasonable selection.
Standards Set: I don't ask much of my players - just do what they've been capable of in the past. So 29 TDs and 4,500 yards seems logical, which would put Schaub back in the top five. My bigger worry is him staying healthy.
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