KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their thoughts and analysis as to why they chose the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft, as this league will be played out during the course of the 2010 fantasy football season, so each participant is drafting to win this year.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.
Reason: He is simply the best running back in the league, coming off a 2,000-yard season and entering the prime of his career. The offense is built around him, he has the ability to score from anywhere on the field, and he has 93 catches in two seasons, which helps out in the PPR department. I don't love the No. 1 pick, but I might as well take the best player.
Standards Set: Another 2,000-yard season is far-fetched. I'll take 1,700-1,800 yards and another 14-16 TDs.
Reason: In '09 Peterson had 43 receptions, three more than his first two seasons combined. The departure of Chester Taylor means Peterson stays on the field for all third-down situations, increasing his value in PPR leagues. Throw in the fact that he has 41 career regular-season touchdowns in 46 games, and I just couldn't pass on him.
Standards Set: I really don't see him coming off the field much this year, so I see his numbers up across the board. I am expecting career best marks in receptions (60-plus) and total yardage (2,150) while continuing his knack for scoring touchdowns.
Reason: Rice is coming off an incredible year with over 2,000 total yards, eight touchdowns and 78 receptions. Those 78 receptions led the league for running backs with Tim Hightower 15 receptions behind Rice in second. With the addition of Anquan Boldin, this offense should be more explosive, and I expect that Rice will have even more room to take dump off passes all year long.
Standards Set: Rice could easily end the 2010 season as the No. 1 RB in a PPR scoring system, and I think we see him crack double-digit touchdowns as well. 1300 rushing yards, 10 TDs rushing, 70 receptions, 650 receiving yards and four TDs receiving.
Reason: MJD was the best all-around running back left on the board. He can catch, run in between the tackles as well as get to the outside. However, we all know that don't we? There's a reason he's always in the top four. However, his inconsistency scares me in this perspective; eight of his 15 touchdowns came in three games.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: He set career highs last year in attempts (312), yards (1,391) and touchdowns (16). The offensive line is gaining in experience with its youngsters and should also improve from last season. Barring injury, a repeat of last season is not expected but it's also not unrealistic. KFFL's expectations.
Reason: Johnson was a machine last year, catching 101 balls for 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns. This offseason, the Texans made Johnson the highest-paid receiver in the NFL and wisely locked him up long-term. The Texans made a commitment to Johnson and in return, expect Johnson to end his career as the first Houston Texan to be inducted to the Hall of Fame.
Standards Set: As my first-round selection, the standards for Johnson are high. At a minimum, if a repeat of 2009 occurs, I'll consider this pick a good one.
Reason: With the big four RBs off the board and Andre Johnson gone, I was at a crossroads between going WR or RB. I still think it is early for QB and Frank Gore is a bit tempting. But I know that by my second-round pick the top tier of wideouts will be stripped so I am opting to take Moss here. He's a safe bet for a decent year and has contract reasons to turn in a big year. Wes Welker (knee) may not be 100 percent this year so Moss should see an uptick in use. He's no worse than very good and could be spectacular.
Standards Set: I am looking to get close to 90 catches and 1,250 yards with a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Wayne would have given me more catches but no WR out there is as likely to lead in touchdown receptions.
Reason: Gore has been basically been a lock for 1,500-plus total yards and 50 receptions over the past four seasons, which plays into the league's PPR format. The Niners showed their commitment to offense by drafting offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. With a stout defense and a defensive-minded head coach, I expect the Niners to be run-heavy in 2010.
Standards Set: 1,600 total yards, 50 receptions, 10 TDs
Reason: Its deja vu considering I took Turner in this very draft last year. A consensus top-five pick heading into the 2009 season, Turner suffered a dreaded high ankle sprain in Week 10, leading many to sour on him and that's a mistake. A closer look at his stats heading into Week 10 of 2009 reflects 831 yards rushing on 162 carries, a solid 5.1 yards per carry average, and 10 touchdowns. Had Turner played 16 games, he would've reached 1,400 yards rushing and 16 scores, obviously solid totals for a first-round pick. A point-per-reception (PPR) format should not deter drafters from taking Turner as a first-round pick.
Others Considered: None
Standards set: One of 2010's top rebound candidates is a virtual lock for 1,400-plus yards rushing and double digit touchdowns. Take those potential numbers in any scoring format for a No. 1 rusher.
Reason: I was hoping for Frank Gore or Michael Turner. Both went right before my pick, so I was left with three choices: Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, or a quarterback. Since the league rewards PPR, I chose Fitzgerald. I love the talent of the Cardinals receiver, but am a tad concerned about the quarterback position. But, at ninth overall, he was well worth the risk.
Standards Set: In order to make this pick worthwhile, the athletic Fitzgerald needs only 80 receptions for 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns. This is well within reason, even with Matt Leinart under center.
Reason: I was surprised to see three wideouts go before my pick, and I was expecting Randy Moss to be available for me here. Instead, Williams has upside, even in a two-headed backfield, and presented the best risk-reward choice for me. Having a pick again at No. 15, I felt a quality No. 1 receiver would be available.
Standards Set: I'm expecting at least 1,300 rushing yards, nine touchdowns on the ground, 25 receptions for 200 yards and one receiving score.
Reason: In a PPR league, in which we are required to start a minimum of three WRs, and have the option to start a fourth as a flex, I believe this was the right pick. Marshall is reliable in PPR leagues, as he hasn't even reached his potential in the TD category. A guy who tends to have preseason question marks, Marshall is a gamer who delivers on Sundays. He will be the focal point of the Dolphins offense, as his stat line will reflect that.
Standards Set: Marshall is basically a lock for 100 catches, as he has hauled in 102, 104 and 101, respectively, in each of his last three seasons. I also expect him to build upon his career-high 10 TDs from a year ago.
Reason: Sure, the Rams offense is terrible, but Steven Jackson is not. This guy is a force, plus he will get plenty of dump-offs from Sam Bradford in the passing game. I needed a running back before my late third-round pick, and he will suffice. I am counting on Jackson to get more than his four touchdowns he had last year, and I think his back will hold up for the most part.
Standards Set: 1,300 rushing yards and 60 receptions for 350 yards. The big catch is that I'm hoping for eight touchdowns from him. Any more would be a big plus.
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