 |
||||
|
|
||||
| ||||
Fantasy Football Draft GuideFantasy football positional depth analysis: Wide receiver
By Cory J. Bonini Each year fantasy owners face the issue of scarcity of a position, and to save you some work KFFL.com has broken down each position to see where you can get away with taking risks or cutting corners. Wide receiversThere is no debate over who is the top fantasy receiver during the 2010 draft season. Houston Texans star Andre Johnson reigns supreme, but one familiar face joins him in the top tier. A 100 percent healthy Tom Brady at quarterback, coupled with a partially slowed Wes Welker (knee), at least early on, and Moss could be dominant in a contract year. He's looking for one last big deal, and we all know how motivation is a key for Moss' success.
Keep in mind, these groupings down reflect direct fantasy ranking. The likeness here is rock-solid, steady production. Wayne and White are about as safe as it gets. Both players have posted elite numbers in their careers, and extenuating circumstances could cause troubles for them in 2010. Fitz has to deal with Matt Leinart as the starter, which is kind of scary, and the loss of wideout Anquan Boldin means Fitzgerald will see the full scope of double-teams. Johnson is coming off an injury-shortened season and should experience the growing pains of second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford at the helm. Don't misconstrue any of this as both players will fail in 2010; temper your expectations. A pair of extremely talented players with high ceilings and basement-level lows, this duo has had trouble in their respective careers at staying healthy. Rice (hip) is seeking a second opinion on his injured hip. Fantasy owners need to closely monitor this situation. Austin has the situation and talent to vault into the top category, but you don't want to put all of your eggs in his fragile basket just yet.
All three guys here are possession receivers with low-end No. 1 fantasy forecasts. Colston (knee) underwent arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason. Marshall (hip) had a procedure done on his hip, the opposite of last year's offseason hip surgery. Boldin, well, he'll pull or tear something in due time. Smith stands alone. He's a possession receiver coming off a marvelous season but still only projects as a No. 2 fantasy receiver in PPR formats. We like him; he's a talented route-runner and should remain Eli Manning's go-to target. Don't expect 100-plus grabs again - we expect the Giants to reemphasize the run in 2010.
Both of these wideouts are big-play threats. Jackson should regress a little since Kevin Kolb's arm is nowhere near as strong as Donovan McNabb's. Unless Jackson can excel after the catch, like Jennings, he's due for a mild letdown. Jennings, on the other hand, should only improve from last year's disappointing season. Once the offensive line improved, this deep threat followed suit. Plus, Donald Driver (knees) isn't getting any younger. Both of these well-aged veteran playmakers come with some baggage. Terrell Owens is now a Bengal; we don't think it will affect chemistry with Ocho, since he is a close friend of TO. It should open up single coverages and lower 85's overall targets. Smith (forearm) is coming off a second broken forearm in as many years; injury-prone is his middle name. Still, he's electric and has a competent quarterback in Matt Moore looking to rely on him
Besides the oft-injured Sims-Walker, this group is made up of role players with a knack for the big play. If you're looking for a spark, albeit potentially an inconsistent one, check out these four. Wallace may struggle the most since he moves into the starting lineup and will have to acclimate himself to a completely different style of release. Besides, four to six games of Byron Leftwich can kill a man's fantasy worth. Harvin's migraine headaches make him a risky pick, and Nicks seems poised for a sophomore disappointment in New York's overrated passing attack. Owens is a vertical threat but could down due to age (36). Cincy's offense may not open up as much as some expect, but he should be treated as a No. 3 fantasy receiver with No. 2 potential. Consistency may be a big issue in this system. Another loner tier - Jackson's situation is unique. He is suspended for the first three games of the year and may be traded if he doesn't reconsider his holdout. Strong No. 2 numbers are there when he's on the field, but uncertainty of this nature forces fantasy owners to take a No. 3 flier on V-Jax. And one more. Crabtree is a possession guy with moderate vertical skills. He plays in a run-first system and doesn't have a lot around him to alleviate pressure. Can he make a big enough jump in Year 2? Fantasy owners are drafting him that way. He's a high-upside No. 3 in our eyes.
Possession receivers with little to no upside make up this tier. Ward is probably in the best position of the five to make consistent contributions. Welker (knee) could be a steal if his knee responds well, but there is a lot of risk, so drafting him as a third is the safest approach. Driver (knees) is also coming off surgery on both his knees and could fall off drastically given his elder statesman status. Housh and Bowe each play in limited offenses and are No. 3 fantasy receivers if all goes well. Everyone in this group should be targeted primarily in point-per-reception affairs.
With the exception of Meachem (toe), who is recovering from offseason surgery, this group includes No. 1 receivers on their respective teams. That's not necessarily a great thing, considering the offensive situations. Moss is in the best shape of all to succeed, but he remains risky due to injuries, a new system and HGH allegations hanging over his head. There is quality No. 4 fantasy value abound in this tier.
Each of these wideouts is intriguing. All of them are in situations in which they could produce quality fantasy points, but inconsistency and general positional uncertainty affects several players (Britt, Floyd, Garcon, Knox). Maclin could be a nice pick as a fourth receiver, assuming he isn't overvalued by fantasy owners.
If you're looking for roster-fillers, check out any of these receivers in the second half of your draft.
Looking to gamble? Feeling lucky? Brave? Just don't know who to take at this stage of your draft? Final analysis: This year, the receiver position is a mess. Outside of the handful of elite locks, you're taking a lot of chances as you fill out your roster. That's not entirely bad, but it makes for a lot of uncertainly. The only problem: Fantasy owners don't seem to be treating this dicey crop of pass catchers with much trepidation. Fantasy football is all about trends, much like the real NFL is. We feel the upward trend we've witness at this position may be ready to plateau. QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Rate this articleAverage score: Fewer than 3 votes.  |
Author Bio
Cory J. Bonini Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts. Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012. Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors. Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL Featured LinksTalk Sports 24/7! Recent articles:
Official Injury Report - Week 14 (12/10)
Fantasy Football Rankings: QB - Week 14 (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: RB - Week 14 (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: RB - Week 14 - PPR (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: WR - Week 14 (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: WR - Week 14 - PPR (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: TE - Week 14 (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: TE - Week 14 - PPR (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: PK - Week 14 (12/09) Fantasy Football Rankings: DT - Week 14 (12/09) |
|
Fantasy football: News · Articles · Blog · Rankings · Draft Guide · Stats · NFL Draft · Free Agents Fantasy baseball: News · Articles · Blog · Rankings · Draft Guide Fantasy NASCAR: News · Articles · Blog · Rankings · Race Preview Fantasy basketball: News · Blog · HoopsWorld.com · HoopsHype.com KFFL.com: Contact · RSS · Blog · Forum · Twitter · Facebook · Wireless · Resources · Awards · Positions |