Fantasy football positional depth analysis: Running back

July 28, 2010 @ 16:00:00

By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Tim Heaney

Each year fantasy owners face the issue of scarcity of a position, and to save you some work KFFL.com has broken down each position to see where you can get away with taking risks or cutting corners.

Running backs

It's not a great year for running backs at a glance, but you'll find a lot of potential and upside in some of the midround rushers. As the NFL's favored committee approach keeps rolling along, it's ever difficult to find a workhorse back in today's league.

• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
• Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

PPR scoring expands Rice's flavor

Those are your best bets to be the top fantasy running back in 2010. We like Peterson more than Johnson - he's safer and has equal upside. Don't be scared off by the fumbles. Minnesota will not bench AD for more than a play or two if he keeps it up, and his six regular-season follies register as two more than Johnson's lost fumbles. MJD is interesting; he is probably safer than Johnson and is an excellent goal line threat.

• Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
• Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Both of these players could fit into separate categories, but they share similar upside. Turner is a bruiser but needs to stay healthy, and Rice's receiving skills cater his services more to point-awarding leagues than standard scoring formats. Each player could leap into the top group, but they are more safely lumped together here.

• Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
• Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
• DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

Another group of three with a load of upside but all have sizeable risks. Jackson (back) is coming off surgery and is the lone offensive weapon that will threaten defenses, so all eyes will be on him. He doesn't score enough to make that jump to elite. Gore needs to score like he did last year and play a full slate of games to make the leap. It is possible with a run-first mentality and an improved offensive line. Williams' timeshare situation doesn't really affect his value as much as it should since Carolina loves to run and Williams is so explosive. He's a real wild card this year.

• Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers
• Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints
• Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
• Shonn Greene, New York Jets
• Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals
• Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Greene light to leap a tier or two?

Most of these guys could be workhorse backs, with Thomas probably being the exception. He has encountered injury problems, and Reggie Bush will see the field quite a bit. Grant, Benson and Mendenhall are from the same mold - plodders with moderate receiving skills - slow and steady but not sexy. Mathews is exciting and should shine out of the gate. Greene is a burly bruiser and has the potential to dominate fantasy leagues if given enough carries. Wells also splits time but will need to stay healthy. Like Greene, he has absurd upside.

• Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
• LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
• Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

We're looking at three backs with a lot of talent, yet their respective situations may retard standout production. All three rushers will probably share carries to a fair degree, and each player is a multi-faceted contributor to fantasy teams.

• Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants
• Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
• Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Injuries and timeshares will keep their ceilings lower than their talents suggest, but this trio will still play key roles in fantasy success as long as they can remain off the gurney.

• Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions
• Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
• Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
• Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks
• Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
• Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Exciting. That sums up each back in this segment, but all of them will share time to some degree. Best probably has the highest ceiling due to an expanded level of touches. PPR owners should be more interested in this grouping than those in standard formats.

• Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
• Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
• Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins
• Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
• Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

Best bet for excitement, Lions touches

This tier of running backs makes fantasy owners think of exciting days gone by. We've seen big seasons in recent years from most of them, but injuries have also played a part in some of their struggles. If all goes well, they can be high-end No. 3 fantasy backs. Realistically, we have a lot of No. 4 backs in this section.

• LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets
• Steve Slaton, Houston Texans
• C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
• Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns
• Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals
• Chester Taylor, Chicago Bears

Looking for a pass-catching back? Any one of these guys should fit the bill. All of them should play complementary roles and are No. 4 fantasy backs.

• Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills
• Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns
• Ben Tate, Houston Texans
• Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders
• Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

With the exception of Bradshaw, expect two-down production from these tailbacks. Bradshaw could remain in a change-of-pace, third-down role or could outright take over for Brandon Jacobs if the latter is ineffective. None of these guys are high-upside backs, and fantasy owners can view each as a fourth option for their squads.

Final analysis: We're down to about four or five backs that are surefire, No. 1 fantasy choices. High-end production is capable from a handful of other backs, but this year's class features a lot of midrangers. Several backs will have to serve as low-end starters for fantasy owners, while a lot of No. 3 and No. 4 selections are going to be counted on to exceed their draft placements. This year offers more depth and upside in the middle to late rounds than in recent years. Feel free to hold off on your second back until Round 3 to Round 5, depending on the flow of your draft.

QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosts Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio each Wednesday evening from 10 p.m. - 1 a.m. ET.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

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