Fantasy football positional depth analysis: Quarterback

July 27, 2010 @ 14:39:00

By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Bryce McRae

Each year fantasy owners face the issue of scarcity of a position, and to save you some work KFFL.com has broken down each position to see where you can get away with taking risks or cutting corners.

Quarterbacks

The top dogs are mainly holdovers from recent years. If anything, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has cemented himself into the top spot after being on the fringe of the elite heading into the 2009 fantasy season.

• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
• Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
• Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Still among the best

The top three are your safest bets for elite production, but that doesn't mean you can't find someone outside of this group with that potential.

• Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
• Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
• Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Another trifecta - any one of these three could jump into the top three above, but for varying reasons, they all have question marks. Romo is probably the surest of the group for an outstanding season, but it's impossible to ever count out Brady, even with wide receiver Wes Welker's knee injury and left guard Logan Mankins' holdout. Schaub may be in the best position of the three, but injury concerns make him the least trustworthy of this group.

• Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
• Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

This pair poses the most concern of the potentially elite fantasy quarterbacks. Rivers may have lost his best wide receiver and his blindside protector due to contract squabbles. Vincent Jackson will already miss three games because of suspension, but the vertical threat could come to his senses and return to the Chargers for the rest of the season. Marcus McNeill isn't budging just yet, but neither player seems to have much of a leg to stand on.

Favre may or may not return, as usual, but his surgically repaired ankle isn't healing at the pace he had hoped for. We fully expect he will be back, but much like Rivers, just for different reasons, Favre is poised for a bit of a letdown in 2010. His '09 showing was so good that matching it is going to be very tough, bum ankle or not.

• Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
• Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
• Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles
• Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

The five signal callers above all come with a large amount of risk and a chance for a big reward. Another common bond is the pressure that will be placed on each of them to succeed.

Cutler has offensive coordinator Mike Martz in town to help his cause, but historically that has come with a lot of interceptions - something Cutler was no stranger to last year.

Big things expected in '10

McNabb was traded within his division. He has a lot of talent around him, and new head coach Mike Shanahan squeezed the most out of a well-aged John Elway in the late '90s. Could McNabb be his Washington version of this? McNabb's biggest negative is his lack of upside having never thrown for 4,000 yards and topping 30 touchdowns only once. Oh, and he's not very durable.

McNabb's replacement, Kolb will have the unrelenting pressure of Philly fans barking in his ear. Expect a lot of yards and a potentially heavy load of interceptions from the first-year starter. He has sleeper qualities and could vault himself into an upper-echelon placement by season's end.

The Ravens' third-year starter, Flacco, is poised for a breakout year after making strides in his second season. Added talent in Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth at receiver should help offensive coordinator Cam Cameron open up the passing game for the big-armed Delaware product.

All eyes will be on Ryan after a disappointing season marred by a nagging toe injury. He has the talent around him to shine, but Ryan's upside seems rather limited in this offense. His ceiling is probably the lowest in this group, although McNabb could be argued.

• Eli Manning, New York Giants
• Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Both players have offenses that could limit their production; Manning's upside is greater, though. We're not convinced Eli is better than a top backup for fantasy teams, and expecting another 4,000-yard season is overly optimistic. Palmer has talent and tools around him, yet elbow concerns and a general reigning in of the offense creates an uninspiring situation for the former USC Trojan.

• Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
• David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos
• Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

None of these guys are worthy of being drafted as more than a No. 2. Their upsides are all limited by their talents and respective systems. Expect a lot of dink-and-dunk passing from these quarterbacks.

• Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
• Vince Young, Tennessee Titans
• Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
• Alex D. Smith, San Francisco 49ers
• Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins
• Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers
• Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals
• Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills

The general theme here is each player has talent and potential, but their situations create tenuous situations for fantasy owners on draft day.

Stafford's Lions should be improved, but just how much of a leap can he make in Year 2. The talent is there, and he's worth grabbing as a midrange No. 2 if you have a secure starter.

How should you value Big Ben?

Campbell has been through so many system changes (eight in the last 10 years) that starting fresh is becoming second nature to him. Will the talent around him step up?

Young's system will probably limit the former Texas star as much as he limits himself. Similarly, run-first offenses should keep big seasons from Smith, Henne, Moore, Leinart and Edwards from standing out. Of the group, Smith and Henne are probably in the best positions to succeed, but we advise to keep an eye on Moore's early-season development.

• Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns
• Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
• Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

The final group of quarterbacks in this analysis should be avoided in standard leagues. None of their respective offenses are potent enough to warrant fantasy consideration as anything more than No. 3 passers in very deep leagues.

• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Don't think we forgot about the suspended star. He is a quality No. 2 for teams in which their starter's bye is after Week 6, but you might be able to find a competent one-week play on the wire if you are cornered into drafting Big Ben as a backup to a QB with a pre-Week 6 bye. 

Final analysis: This is a pretty deep year for quarterbacks, but after the first six come off the board you're getting into risky territory. We don't advise drafting an elite quarterback as high as most people do. There isn't enough value to waste a top-24 pick on a quarterback, regardless of the player. Targeting a pair of sleeper passers in the middle rounds is a sound way of finding a breakout player and building the depth of your team elsewhere. We identified Rodgers in 2008 and Schaub in '09 as these players fantasy owners could snag late and reap high-end level production from. This year, make it either Flacco or Kolb, preferably the former.

QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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