Fantasy Football Analysis Draft I - Round 6
Reason: Consistency. Driver keeps racking up the 1,000-yard seasons. I'm not too worried about him missing some offseason camp and the dual knee scopes. His age and the Packers' other options are the biggest drawbacks. The latter will probably keep his stats from being too extravagant, but I still think the vet has one more solid year left, especially considering Green Bay's potential.
Standards Set: I'm looking for 65-plus receptions, around 1,000 yards and four or five scores.
Reason: More than a year removed from microfracture surgery, Bush may finally be healthy. Running back Mike Bell (Eagles) is gone, and Pierre Thomas will share more touches with Bush. I expect a lot more from Bush in the passing game this year, too.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: I'll be happy with 500 rushing yards, five rushing scores, 60 receptions for 450 yards and three receiving touchdowns. I'm expecting 1,300 total yards, 75 receptions and 10 total scores in a rebound year.
Reason: Don't be fooled by Philadelphia's quarterback switch from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb - anyone who has followed the Eagles regularly during the Andy Reid era knows the team has always had a pass-first mentality, so don't expect Maclin's numbers to dip. If anything, they should actually go up from the 56 catches and 773 receiving yards he racked up in 2009.
Standards Set: I don't think it's a stretch to say that Maclin will have 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
Reason: Last season Forsett had 619 yards on only 114 carries (5.4 yards per carry). He's already a favorite of head coach Pete Carroll, and will likely go into training camp penciled in as the Seahawks' lead back. Julius Jones, with his 3.7 yards per carry last year, is not likely to wrest the starting job away from Forsett. Jones has no upside whatsoever, and he is likely to be used to spell Forsett and get him out of the game during garbage time. Forsett has also outperformed Jones in the passing game. Leon Washington is best suited for a Dave Meggett-type role. He'll spell the other two backs, but must be kept fresh for the return game.
Standards Set: There is concern about his size, but I'll wager that this sleeper hits the ceiling of his predicted output. I expect Forsett to end the season with 1,100 yards on 250 carries and eight touchdowns. Washington will likely take away some targets form Forsett in the passing game, but Forsett should still see 40 catches for 350 yards.
Reason: Even though the Seahawks struggled last season, Houshmandzadeh was able to put up good numbers as their top receiver. Housh has been slowed during the offseason because of sports hernia surgery but should be able to pick up the team's new offense relatively quickly. He has been consistently been near the top of the reception list.
Standards Set: I would hope to see 70-80 passes for around 900 yards and at least six touchdowns.
Reason: Entering Round 6, I had just one running back so one was clearly needed. Williams rushed for 1,121 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in 2009. His 4.7 yards per carry indicated he retained a lot of ability despite his 33-year-old legs. I expect him to share carries with running back Ronnie Brown but still work enough to warrant a roster spot on my team. Brown is coming back from right foot injury.
Others Considered: Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Carnell Williams
Standards Set: Sharing carries with Brown, I still expect 600-800 rushing yards, six or seven rushing touchdowns and about 30 receptions for 225-plus yards. If Brown is not fully recovered, these numbers should spike upward.
Reason: Ideally, I would like Garcon to be my No. 3 wideout, but he basically is - I'm considering Antonio Gates (my last pick) as another receiver in this case. Garcon's 16.3 yards per reception is a plus, and he plays in the AFC's top offense. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he can keep his job as the No. 2 guy in Indy behind Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is coming off knee surgery, so he may not be the same player he was before his injury. Even if Garcon becomes the third fiddle, I trust that Peyton Manning will find him enough to justify this pick.
Standards Set: I'm expecting Garcon to retain his No. 2 spot and see plenty of action with Wayne being double-teamed in most instances. I see him approaching 900 yards with six scores.
Reason: MBIII isn't a lock to start this year. He may return to his previous role of closer, while Felix Jones takes over as the starter. That may not be such a bad thing, as that is how Barber originally paved his fantasy football value. Furthermore, Jones is more hype than proven production so far, too, which could leave a slimmed-down Barber still seeing the majority of the carries. Even in a bad year last season, he managed 932 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Standards Set: Not what I was hoping for as my RB2, but I expect 1,100 yards (1,000 rush, 100 receive) and 10 touchdowns this season. I'll need to catch lightning in a bottle with another back later.
Reason: Celek had a breakout season last year and finished with 76 receptions for 971 yards with eight touchdowns. Even more importantly, Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards with a score over Week 2 and Week 3 with quarterback Kevin Kolb at the helm. With Kolb taking over the starting job full time, I'm looking for him to lean on his big target a little more in 2010.
Standards Set: I think Celek should haul in about 80 passes for about 900 yards with eight touchdowns again.
Reason: In Round 6, every remaining running back is part of a time share. I'd rather gamble on Spiller's upside than fill team needs by taking the best available tight end, who happens to be Jermichael Finley. You can always find tight ends in later rounds; by contrast, running backs with Spiller's elite potential are often worth reaching for. Just ask anyone who reached for Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte or Jonathan Stewart in 2008. Just don't ask anyone who reached for Darren McFadden or Rashard Mendenhall that year.
Standards Set: I'm confident Spiller will get enough touches - say, 150 carries and 40 receptions - to give me 1,200 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. That's not quite Chris Johnson circa 2008, but it's fine for my No. 3 running back.
Reason: At this point, it was mainly split-duty and risky backs anyway. I know McFadden has been brittle and disappointing - and that Michael Bush looms to take carries. For my flex running back, though, I'm willing to take the chance of McFadden doing most of his damage in the receiving game, a la Reggie Bush. McFadden's talent hasn't left, plus a new, more capable quarterback should expand the offense. I dismissed taking a tight end (deep class once again), and I knew I'd have my pick of quarterback on the next selection, even if the turn didn't need another RB.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: I don't expect Run (Catch?) DMC to top 1,000 yards on the ground. That's lunacy. I can ask for 1,300 total yards and 40-plus receptions and not feel guilty. Eight touchdowns will suffice.
Reason: Usually this freak is off the board by this point. I think he's a little overvalued in mocks right now, but I'll take him if he slips past his ADP. From Week 11 through Week 17 he received 6.43 targets per game and was a top-five fantasy tight end. Donald Driver may slowly fade, and Green Bay's other wideouts haven't stepped up. Finley is a determined, athletic young man who's attending Larry Fitzgerald's offseason camp, one that has done wonders for other players. Tony G is safer, no doubt, but I love Finley's upside.
Standards Set: 70 receptions, 850 yards, eight or nine TDs.
Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
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