KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football overvalued players for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.
Busts are also overvalued players in some cases, but the latter usually has a hype machine inflating his perceived value. We have a keen eye for these players and have a strong track record of identifying them. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.
Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.
We'll be brief: We're not saying Clark (leg) will be a bust, nor are we saying he doesn't deserve to be one of the top tight ends drafted. There is no arguing his talent, and he has quarterback Peyton Manning's trust.
Where Clark scares most is his health. The 2009 season was his first 16-game campaign in his entire career. He missed the entire preseason, though he says he'll be back for Week 1. It's still not an encouraging start.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is expected to return to the mix. Wideouts Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon should be better with a full year of experience. We expect the Colts to run more with a healthy Donald Brown, too. Clark set career highs in receptions (100) and receiving yardage (1,106), both figures we expect to decrease in 2010.
Fantasy value: Draft him confidently as your No. 1 tight end, but Clark is hardly a slam dunk to repeat last year's fantastic showing. Expect something closer to his 2008 stat line of 77-848-6 in terms of receptions and yardage, but his touchdowns should remain in the double-digit neighborhood. His late fourth-round placement is a fair value, but the position is so deep that you can probably hold off and address a different area of need that high in the draft.
It was a breakout year for Green Bay's third-year TE; Finley caught 55 passes for 676 yards and five scores. In Green Bay's lone playoff game, he had six receptions for 159 yards. He's a tough matchup, possessing too much size for most DBs and enough speed to burn most linebackers. This offseason he worked out at Larry Fitzgerald's camp, which helped Sidney Rice (Vikings) to a career year in '09.
The drawbacks, though: Finley has only 11 career starts. He was bothered by a knee injury last year. This offense has a ton of weapons - Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant, James Jones, Jordy Nelson - and head coach Mike McCarthy isn't afraid to make use of unexpected options. John Kuhn scored three TDs last year, Spencer Havner had four.
Fantasy value: Finley has the talent to turn in an elite season. However, he is being drafted ahead of safer, though less exciting, tight ends, and this position is deep. You don't need to reach. Finley is a No. 1, but someone is likely going to bypass more secure talent to take a chance on him.
Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
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