KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.
Busts are also overvalued players in some cases. Even the most surefire pick can end up busting due to injury, but there is no way to accurately project for that. Instead, we will primarily focus on the players' situations that could lead to down years. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.
Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.
Greg Olsen | Chicago Bears | ADP: 13th round
If Olsen succeeds this year, he'll be bucking a trend of Mike Martz-led offenses: a non-existent tight end. With the St. Louis Rams in 2002, Ernie Conwell caught 38 passes for 431 yards and four scores. Those are the best stats from this position under Martz since 1999.
Plenty of other receiving options exist in Chicago. At wideout, Devin
Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin
Aromashodu, Earl Bennett (hamstring) and
possibly Rashied Davis are all in line for touches.
Running backs Matt Forte and Chester
Taylor are both solid receivers out of the backfield.
A lot of talent, too much risk
The Bears' offensive line is an area of concern. Chicago needs to keep quarterback Jay Cutler upright to take advantage of Martz's passing game. In order to do that, they could keep an extra TE or back in to help with the pass rush.
Fantasy value: Investing in Olsen as a No. 1 is simply too risky. Snatching
him as a No. 2 is more recommended. It'd then give you the chance to wait and
see if Martz changes any of the offense to suit Olsen's receiving strengths,
or to start Olsen when the regular-season matchup is strong. Expecting Olsen
to match his 60-612-8 stat line of a year ago is asking too much of the situation.
Jermaine Gresham | Cincinnati
Bengals | ADP: 24th round
Thankfully few owners are viewing Gresham as much more than a late flier, but even that is unnecessary.
The Bengals' offense rarely calls on the tight end position, and it's equally as uncommon for a rookie tight end to be worth anything to fantasy owners. Gresham should start for Cincy but has a history of knee problems and missed the entire 2009 season at Oklahoma. Expect there to be rust.
Fantasy value: Hopefully we don't have to tell you to avoid Gresham
in non-keeper leagues, unless you play in some abnormally deep league (20-player
rosters or more). Don't overvalue him when options like Kevin
Boss (Giants) and Todd
are going in the same neighborhood. Leave Gresham for the waiver wire and spend
that last pick on someone with a better risk-reward ratio.
Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Busts: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Undervalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Overvalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
About Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.
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