Fantasy football overvalued players: Quarterbacks

September 9, 2010 @ 11:17:00

By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Bryce McRae

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football overvalued players for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.

Busts are also overvalued players in some cases, but the latter usually has a hype machine inflating his perceived value. We have a keen eye for these players and have a strong track record of identifying them. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.

Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | ADP: 7th overall

"WHOA! Has KFFL gone off the deep end?" Not quite, but hear us out. Rodgers, who is deservedly ranked as our No. 1 quarterback, should be great again this year. Don't worry about that; draft him with confidence as your top passer.

What's the catch?

NO, and we mean NO, quarterback is worthy of a first-round pick. Take a wideout or a running back, but leave the QBs out of the first. Some companies will try to sell you on first-round passers because of the league's shift toward being a pass-friendly attitude.

Fantasy value: In 2009, only two non-quarterbacks (Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson) ranked in the top 12 of standard fantasy scoring. New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning even outscored Peterson, but you would not dare to take Eli ahead of AD, would you?

Even in leagues with six points per passing touchdown, Rodgers isn't a first-round pick. He should go in the second or third, but we feel strongly about finding a sleeper at the position or at least gaining optimal value. There are too many good quarterbacks - too many potential No. 1 guys - to value any signal caller in the first round.

Jay Cutler | Chicago Bears | ADP: 7th round

Cut through the haze of hype

If you overlook 26 interceptions and a fumble lost last year, Cutler was pretty good in his first season with the Bears. The gunslinger regressed in every notable category but touchdowns last year. While TDs are probably the most important category, Cutler threw eight more interceptions in 2009 than he did in '08. In standard scoring formats, it's a wash for the two extra TD passes.

The Bears brought in Mike Martz to be their offensive guru after several years of Ron Turner's bland tutelage led Chicago to a string of mediocre offensive showings. Fantasy owners rejoiced. Savvy fantasy owners saw through the hype and recognized it for what truly is: a recipe for fantasy disaster.

The one staple in a Martz-led offense is throwing caution to the wind. It may have worked in the dome of St. Louis, but this is the wrong city to try it in. When the Rams' offenses were high-flying, they had two receivers that will probably make the Hall of Fame one day in Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Bruce is practically a lock, while Holt's numbers at least put him into the discussion.

If Cutler threw 27 picks last year, what is it going to be under Martz? Chances are that number will come down, but don't expect to see single digits any time soon. Remember, he threw 18 in 2008 with the Denver Broncos. Moreover, a lack of offensive talent at wide receiver and a patchwork offensive line are Cutler's biggest drawbacks. Although that's not his fault, it still has to be addressed. Since Martz left St. Louis - heck, since Kurt Warner's ridiculous success there - which quarterbacks has Martz turned into fantasy stars? Jon Kitna threw for a lot of yardage and a ton of interceptions in Detroit. Exciting.

Fantasy value: Cutler has been drafted as early as the fourth round. His ADP of the early seventh round is at least digestible. Don't buy into the hype; temper your expectations. A yardage spike into the 4k neighborhood is unlikely, and Chicago will remain committed to the run, especially when the weather turns for the worse. Let someone else draft this Indiana native. 

Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 10th round

The embattled Steelers' star quarterback will miss the first four games of the season for his off-the-field indiscretions. When he comes back, Roethlisberger will likely be rusty and may need a few games to get into a rhythm.

Pittsburgh traded their No. 2 receiver, Santonio Holmes, to the New York Jets after a breakout season. It seems like Mike Wallace is ready to replace him, but if he isn't, the Steelers' passing game could stall. The Steelers want to get back to their roots in the running game, too.

Fantasy value: For starters, the 10th round is too early for a maximum of 11 games of play (Week 16 championship format). While Roethlisberger can put up big-time fantasy stats, he's still missing four games plus the bye week. The only way he should be considered is if your starter has a late bye week, but you're still taking a huge risk. If you draft Big Ben and your primary quarterback goes down for a long period of time during the first few games, you have possibly already kissed your season goodbye.

Also see:

Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Busts: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Undervalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Overvalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Jack Douglas, at 07:50 on 06/24/10, says: I agree. Cutler has a way of disappointing and the stable of receivers in Chicago is fairly pedestrian. He needs an elite receiver. It's remarkable how much better Tony Romo got in 2009 when Miles Austin developed into an elite receiver. It's like that here. I see no one on the Bears' roster who scares me at WR.

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2

Jack Douglas, at 01:40 on 07/01/10, says: Roethlisberger scares me for a different reason. He could implode this year by getting into further trouble. The Sports Illustrated story recently was an eye opener. Big Ben has a sense of great entitlement and I worry that he will actually be criminally charged with some crime like rape if he doesn't stop carousing and drinking so much. It is hard to gamble on him as he appears somewhat unstable.

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3

Justin, at 09:28 on 08/12/10, says: The Roethlisberger comment was nearly pointless. Let us look at the facts, he lost his best WR and now does not have a solid 3rd WR. Ward is going to fall a part sooner than later. Most playoffs are Week 13, so you get him Week 7-12, 5 games... Too much talent in the 10th. Cutler has a ton of issues, but his ADP is fair.

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4

Jon, at 12:11 on 08/15/10, says: i agree but weeks 7,8,9,10,11, and 12 is actually 6 games...

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5

Bobby C, at 09:39 on 08/20/10, says: Drafting Rodgers, Brees or Manning in the 1st round is SMART!!! In our league these guys will score up 40pts each week. What running other than Johnson last year will do that?!!

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RICK, at 05:45 on 08/20/10, says: 10 team league drafting #8 I get a Gore-ish type RB. Given the #10 QB may be a Flacco, McNabb type I've got to grab a Romo/Brady, etc at # 13 overall. Can't wait until #28 to get my QB.

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7

Cory J. Bonini, at 07:12 on 08/23/10, says: Rick - That's all the more reason to not draft a QB that high. You're making a major reach for either of those QBs at No. 13. Let someone else overvalue the position and reap the rewards at other positions on your team. This point is even more important in a 10-team league.

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8

Cory J. Bonini, at 07:17 on 08/23/10, says: Bobby - It's all about relative value. QBs will always score the most points. If any quarterback regularly scores 40 points in a week, your league's scoring is abnormal. What does the scoring system look like?

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9

Andrew, at 09:58 on 08/31/10, says: The highest scoring players in FF should be considered the best picks in the Draft. Whether that be QBs or RBs. It just so happens that QBs will give you the most bang for you buck. Not to mention that the differential in points between top tier QBs, and 2nd tier QBs, is a TON more drastic than differential in top tier RBs, and 2nd tier. There is no question, as it stands, elite QBs are the MVPs of fantasy football.

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10

Cory J. Bonini, at 08:23 on 09/09/10, says: Andrew - It's all about value, and drafting a QB in the first round is the antithesis of making a value pick. To each their own, however.

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Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosts Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio each Wednesday evening from 10 p.m. - 1 a.m. ET.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

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