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Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Picks

Fantasy football busts: Quarterbacks

September 9, 2010 @ 11:15:00

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By Cory J. Bonini and Tim Heaney
Edited by Bryce McRae

KFFL.com's analysis of fantasy football busts for the 2010 season will be updated weekly throughout the offseason. We have separated our busts and overvalued players this year, so be sure not to confuse the two.

Busts are also overvalued players in some cases. Even the most surefire pick can end up busting due to injury, but there is no way to accurately project for that. Instead, we will primarily focus on the players' situations that could lead to down years. No one likes doing the dirty work, so let KFFL.com do it for you! Be sure to check for weekly updates.

Note: All average draft position (ADP) figures are based on 12-team, non-PPR leagues unless specified otherwise.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning | New York Giants | ADP: 7th round

New York Giants QB Eli Manning
He's no Peyton

No doubt Eli has grown as a quarterback: In '09, career bests in completion percentage (62.3), passing yards (4,021), yards per attempt (7.9) and touchdown throws (27) highlighted his best statistical season. Steve E. Smith became his BFF, and Hakeem Nicks posted an optimistic rookie campaign.

What's the problem, then? The G-men will probably look to bring the focus back to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw; both encountered injuries and ineptitude last year, and the Giants suffered for it. When all is right, Manning works off the ground game, not the other way around, so there probably isn't much upward movement for his statistical output. If they don't have to go downfield as much and his yards per attempt go down, the 4,000-yard plateau will probably elude him.

Fantasy value: We probably saw Eli's statistical apex last year, and the Giants' typically run-first philosophy means you shouldn't bank on this line again. Maybe he can pass as a low-end No. 1, but you'll need to grab a backup soon after if you're forced to draft Manning in that role. He remains a top-flight No. 2, but don't overpay in fantasy for his real-life maturation.

Also See:
Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Busts: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Undervalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT
Overvalued players: QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | DT



KFFLians are saying....

Comment

1

Gill, at 01:05 on 06/22/10, says:

You would not reccomend him as a third QB even in the deepest of leagues? Nonsense. You sound like a guy who was burnt once and lost objectivity. So... 16 team leagues are fairly common so we'll roll with that. Please tell me what 48 QBs you'd take over Lienert.


2

Cory J. Bonini, at 06:04 on 06/22/10, says:

Gill, First, please read what I wrote. I didn't say to avoid him like the plague. I said it is tough to recommend him even in the deepest of leagues. That doesn't mean don't draft him at all. If you are in some ridiculously sized league, like a 16-teamer, any player with a pulse at every position is being drafted. And I'm the one without objectivity :)


3

Gill, at 11:20 on 06/22/10, says:

alright, what 24 QBs would you take over him?


4

Cory J. Bonini, at 12:39 on 06/22/10, says:

Gill - On average, Leinart is the 27th quarterback taken, so I'm not alone here. In no particular order, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, Cutler, Ryan, Kolb, Favre, Eli, Flacco, McNabb, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Stafford, Henne, Orton, Cassel, Alex Smith, Sanchez, Garrard, Hasselbeck, Edwards, Campbell, Young ... at 24 yet? I would be tempted to take Derek Anderson before Leinart. He fits the system better. I won't be surprised if DA wins the job in camp or early in the year.


5

Cory J. Bonini, at 12:42 on 06/22/10, says:

Oh, and I forgot Matt Moore.


6

Jack Douglas, at 08:23 on 06/24/10, says:

There is no doubt that Matt Leinert needs to step up now and show he belongs. I think it is 50/50 on the issue of whether he will do it in 2010. In his favor, the Cardinals have talented receivers to help him, even with the loss of Anquan Boldin. However, losing Boldin was huge. I am not sold that Arizona will be able to run the ball. Let's wait and see on that as history is against them. I think Matt Moore is a man headed for a probable bad year at quarterback. He would be my first choice here. How about Kevin Kolb? The pressure on him in Philadelphia as a number one quarterback will be much greater than as the backup quarterback. The Eagles' fans can be harsh on players who disappoint. If Kolb starts slowly, watch out. Of course, he might also have a great year. The Eagles have solid weapons for the quarterback to rely on and Andy Reid likes to throw the ball. This is what makes this so much fun ... the fact that it is often such a crap shoot.


7

Jack Douglas, at 11:06 on 06/29/10, says:

If I had to bet, I would bet against Matt Leinert. There are much safer picks out there. And I agree that Derek Anderson may even beat him out.


8

Eric McClung, at 03:12 on 07/12/10, says:

Unless there is a keg in the end zone, Leinart isn't going to be headed in that direction very often.


9

Tim Heaney, at 11:24 on 07/15/10, says:

Gill, Matt Leinart never had the chance to burn anyone in the first place.


10

Michael, at 10:51 on 07/24/10, says:

I'm not into Leinart unless he really shows me something first. On Eli I donlt think it is fair to say "he's no Peyton" because who is? I don't know about 4000 yards but Eli has a cadre of WRs without a total focus on any one or two. 3800 and 25 TDs is what I see as the low end for him.


11

Rick, at 11:59 on 08/17/10, says:

Who the hell wants to play in a 16-team league? I doubt Leinart could beat out Rex Grossman!


12

Ron, at 07:32 on 08/20/10, says:

Leinart is the reason Fitz is hurt! He throws to late (he's timid, indecisive, or just slow) which gives his receivers no time to protect themselves or God forbid gain yards after. He had enough time to learn from one of the best K.W. He should go back to college and party with the cheerleaders, what he was really good at. Now Eli is a different story. Look at his stats he gets better every year. I'm not a huge fan of his and it looks like he gets really lucky at times. But he does get the job done. So maybe not so much luck, he just does not give up. As for the running game, at the start of the season maybe a 50/50 split run/pass. But BJ not the beast he was and Bradshaw with 3 surgeries in the off-season I doubt he last. But I will take Bradshaw late in the draft if I can. The first half of the season he will surprise.


13

Johnny Nash, at 02:40 on 08/31/10, says:

Seriously? It feels like KFFL calls Eli Manning a bust every year. It's just time to admit he's slowly becoming an elite quarterback.

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Author Bio

Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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Author Bio

Tim Heaney

Since the Boston University alum joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.

Tim competes in Tout Wars and LABR and appears every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore, as well as frequently on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio.

Follow him on Twitter.

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