Fantasy NASCAR Racing

Fantasy NASCAR Picks and Points: Pocono

June 3, 2010 @ 00:00:00

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SCOTT ENGEL’S TOP 25 FOR POCONO

1. Denny Hamlin: Pocono Raceway has been a superb venue for Hamlin ever since he entered the Sprint Cup series. He has three wins, five Top Five finishes and six Top 10s in eight starts at the site. His average finish is a series-best 9.5. He has led for 391 laps at Pocono, and his laps-completed rate is 98.5 percent. He leads all drivers at Pocono in Driver Rating (115.9), Average Running Position (10.2), Fastest Laps Run (289) and Average Green-Flag Speed (159.530) since the inception of Loop Data in 2005. You can clearly see why Pocono Raceway is sometimes referred to as “Hamlin’s House.”

2. Kurt Busch: Don’t hesitate to ride the recent wave of success, even though Busch’s very best form can disappear at any time. Busch has finished eighth or better in four of his past six starts. He has seven Top Fives and nine Top 10s in 18 Pocono starts. His Loop Data numbers at the site are certainly impressive. He is second in DR (105.9), ARP (10.5), Fastest Laps Run (238) and Average Green-Flag Speed (159.118 mph). He will surely vie for a Top Five finish even if he cannot ultimately challenge Hamlin for the victory.

3. Jimmie Johnson: He has only one Top 10 finish in his past five events and is coming off a 37th-place finish at Charlotte. Yet Johnson is showing real signs of coming out of his “slump,” having led for a total of 261 laps in the past two races, and there simply has to be a sense of urgency in his camp now that he has dropped to seventh in the standings. Other than Hamlin, he is the only driver to average a Top 10 finish at Pocono (9.8). Johnson has two wins, five Top Fives and a total of 10 Top 10 finishes at the site. He is third in DR (103.1), fifth in ARP (11.0), third in Average Green Flag Speed (158.965 mph) and fourth in Laps in the Top 15 (75.2 percent) at Pocono since 2005.

4. Mark Martin: He has never won in 46 starts at Pocono Raceway, yet it is clearly one of his better tracks, and Martin’s fourth-place finish could be an indicator that he is about to embark on a strong run over the next few events. Martin leads all drivers in Top Fives (19) and Top 10s (32) at Pocono. He has six second-place finishes there. Martin is sixth in DR (98.8) and third in ARP (10.7) at Pocono. He is also fourth in Average Green Flag Speed (158.925 mph). Martin is one of the safest Fantasy choices you can make for this event.

5. Jeff Gordon: I’m starting to give up on any hope of seeing him win a race when I use him, yet Gordon will certainly give any owner a quality finish, especially at Pocono, where he has a sound record of recent and overall success. Gordon has three Top Six finishes in his past four starts. He also has six Top 10s and five Top Fives in his past seven Pocono starts. Gordon has won four times at Pocono, with 16 Top Five finishes and 24 Top 10s in 34 starts. He is seventh in DR (97.3), sixth in ARP (11.1), fourth in Green Flag Passes (831) and Quality Passes (445) at Pocono since ’05

6. Ryan Newman: He has been quite reliable recently, with three Top 10 finishes in his past four starts. He finished fifth and 14th at Pocono last year, his first season at Stewart-Haas Racing. Newman has six Top Fives and seven Top 10s in 16 Pocono starts. He is eighth in DR (96.3), fourth in ARP (11.0), third in Laps in the Top 15 (75.5 percent) and second in Quality Passes (455 passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions). Newman may not push for a win, but he is a very solid pick for a quality finish, certainly in the Top 10 and maybe even better.

7. Juan Pablo Montoya: He has run into some bad luck recently that has led to poor finishes in the past two events. But Montoya was building some positive momentum before Dover and Charlotte, with three consecutive Top Six finishes, and Pocono is a prime site for him to rebound. Montoya finished eighth and second at Pocono in 2009, and his past finishes and sample sizes really do not matter as much as his recent finishes there. Montoya has been improving every season since he entered the Sprint Cup series, and I will proclaim this week as the one when he bounces back and starts to run near the top of the field again, despite his 71.4 DR at the site. Occasionally, the Loop Data does not tell the full story.

8. Kyle Busch: It’s hard to bet against a driver who has seven consecutive Top 10 finishes and two wins in his past four starts. Yet Pocono is simply not one of Busch’s better tracks, and if you start him, you’ll be gambling that his hot streak can overcome past results. It’s not ludicrous to use Busch this week, but he is not a top-shelf pick, either. He has only two Top 10s and one Top Five in 10 career starts at Pocono Raceway. He has not finished in the Top 10 in his past five Pocono starts. His DR of 78.9 ranks 17th among all current Cup drivers, so I’ll be avoiding him in tiered leagues for sure this week.

9. Jamie McMurray: The move to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing has worked wonders for McMurray, as he is finally starting to show he can meet the expectations that were set for him some time ago. He has three second-place finishes in his past five starts and while he doesn’t have a great history at Pocono, that was with his old team, Roush Fenway Racing. He did manage a ninth-place finish in the second event of 2008 and a 13th-place showing in the first Pocono race last year with Roush Fenway, and he can certainly beat that mark this week with his new team. McMurray has three Top 10s in 14 Pocono starts and a 70.8 DR, yet he should finish well this week no matter what the past numbers say.

10. Clint Bowyer: He is coming off a seventh-place finish at Charlotte, and Pocono is certainly one of the better tracks to consider Bowyer for Fantasy usage. Bowyer is also four points behind Newman for the precious 12th spot in the standings, so expect a quality performance this week. Bowyer has four Top 10s in eight Pocono Raceway starts. He has finished sixth, 12th and third in his past three starts at the site. Bowyer also led for 23 laps in the second race there last year, as he delivered his best-ever finish at Pocono. His 73.0 DR at the site is not fully reflective of how good he can be at Pocono.

11. Matt Kenseth: Eight Top 10s in 20 Pocono starts. DR of 91.0 is 11th-best.

12. Carl Edwards: Two wins, four Top Fives, five Top 10s in 10 Pocono starts. 100.3 DR is fifth, but Loop Data is not enough to overcome recent ho-hum outings.

13. Sam Hornish Jr.: Best bargain of the week. Two Top 10s in four Pocono starts.

14. Kevin Harvick: Five Top 10s in 18 Pocono starts. DR of 87.8 is 12th.

15. Jeff Burton: 15 Top 10s in 32 Pocono starts. DR of 87.3 is 13th.

16. Greg Biffle: 86.1 DR

17. Tony Stewart: 101.7

18. David Reutimann

19. Joey Logano

20. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 80.0

21. Kasey Kahne: 92.0

22. Martin Truex Jr.:: 83.5

23. Marcos Ambrose: 73.9

24. A.J. Allmendinger

25. Bobby Labonte

Author Bio

Scott Engel, RotoExperts.com

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RotoExperts.com is a deluxe fantasy analysis and information site and content development network. Led by award-winning Fantasy veteran Scott Engel, formerly of ESPN and CBS SportsLine, the RotoExperts.com team provides distinctive and in-depth fantasy insights in all sports. RotoExperts.com is an official content provider for NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated and USA Today. RotoExperts.com was nominated for a total of eight industry awards in 2009, and won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Award for Best Humor Article. RotoExperts.com urges you to look for the X- The Mark of Fantasy Excellence.