NASCAR Picks and Points: Kobalt Tools 500

March 4, 2010 @ 18:15:00

By Scott Engel, RotoExperts.com

If the pre-race Loop Data is any indication, Jimmie Johnson may deliver a third consecutive victory in the Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That's great for if you play in a salary cap style league or built your team through a draft and had the first pick. For those who did not get to draft Johnson, or owners in tiered leagues with limited starts, it's all about finding the top alternative.

Last week, that was Jeff Gordon, who led for 219 of 267 laps at Las Vegas and came away with a Driver Rating of 144.2 (out of a possible 150). Gordon finished third, but deserved better, and was apparently determined to dominate after a pair of disappointing finishes to open the 2010 Sprint Cup schedule. Gordon appears to be developing a more spicy rivalry with Johnson recently, and could be primed to knock him off soon on the way to a win. "I don't like giving those guys bonus points," Gordon said of Johnson's 20 earned in the past two races.

Kevin Harvick not only tops the Cup Standings, he also leads in Driver Rating after three events, with a mark of 116.4. If anyone appears capable of beating Johnson out, it may be Harvick, who scored his first-ever Cup win in 2001 at Atlanta. Yet his teammate, Clint Bowyer, could outpoint everyone else, or at least everyone else outside of Johnson. The 15th-ranked driver in pre-race DR has won twice at AMS in the past two years. This time, Bowyer enters Atlanta as the No. 15 to pinpoint, with a rating of 83.8.

SCOTT ENGEL'S TOP 25 for ATLANTA

1. Jimmie Johnson: The stats point to him contending for another win. Since Loop Data was first recorded in 2005, Johnson leads all drivers in Driver Rating (110.1), Average Running Position (7.7) and Laps in the Top 15 (89.9 percent). He is second in Average Green Flag Speed (172.121 mph). He has three wins, nine Top Fives and 11 Top 10s in 17 AMS starts. If you play in a league with limited starts per driver, it's tempting to save Johnson for his usual dominant Chase for the Cup stretches. But he has been nearly impeccable since Daytona and the pre-race numbers support using him in any format this week.

2. Jeff Gordon: He looked the best he has in a long time last week, and may pick up where he left off at Las Vegas. Gordon has four wins, 14 Top Fives and 23 Top 10s in 35 AMS starts. He has five consecutive Top 10 finishes at the site, including a second-place showing in the first event there in 2009. He is third in DR (102.2), second in ARP (10.0), Laps in the Top 15 (83.1 percent) and Quality Passes (344 passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green flag conditions) since 2005.

3. Kevin Harvick: Gotta stay with the hot ride, especially when you consider he finished second and fourth at AMS last season. Overall, he has five Top 10s in 18 Atlanta starts, but he has really improved at the track in recent seasons. He has finished in the Top 10 in three of his past four Atlanta starts and in the Top 15 in each of his past five. Harvick is 16th in DR at Atlanta (82.4), but he is gunning for Johnson again this week. "We can run with them and they know it," Harvick said.

4. Clint Bowyer: We have already pointed out the unique pre-race statistic that makes Bowyer a favorite, and he has finished sixth in four of his past six AMS starts. Pair those numbers with second place in the Cup standings and a 107.8 DR to this point in 2010, and he is a clear top choice this week. There are no outstanding Loop Data numbers for Bowyer, other than the No. 15 coincidence, but that should not deter you from plugging him in.

5. Kasey Kahne: Mired in 23rd in the Cup standings, Kahne really needs a strong run and I'm betting he comes through with one at Atlanta. Kahne finished ninth at Vegas and he has run into a lot of bad luck early on. When Kahne is good at AMS, he's very good. He finished seventh in the first race at the site last season, and collected his second Atlanta win in the second event. He has five Top Fives and seven Top 10s in 12 AMS starts. Kahne is 11th in DR at Atlanta (88.8), but urgency and past standout performances at the track have me convinced he should be used this week in salary cap and tiered formats.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The Junior camp is encouraged by his 15th-place showing so far, as compared to 29th last year after three races. "I feel they've made a ton of improvement on that team and I think we're going to have a really good year," Rick Hendrick said. Atlanta is one of Earnhardt's top tracks. He ranks fourth in DR there (99.8). The only venue he has a higher rating at is New Hampshire. He has eight Top Fives and 10 Top 10s in 21 Atlanta starts. He leads in Quality Passes at AMS (352), is second in Fastest Laps Run (219) third in ARP (10.6) Green Flag Passes (631) and Average Green Flag Speed (172.044).

7. Carl Edwards: His first three finishes in 2010 have been a bit below what we expect, and he has yet to fully come out of the funk that frustrated his owners last year. Still, he has seized the spotlight at Atlanta before, and he may deliver his first Top Five finish of the season this week. Edwards has three wins, six Top Fives and eight Top 10s at AMS. He is second in DR (105.0) and leads all drivers in Fastest Laps Run (289) and Average Green Flag Speed (172.189) at Atlanta.

8. Matt Kenseth: He has seven Top Fives and 11 Top 10s in 20 AMS starts. DR of 95.4 is sixth best. Kenseth has quietly been a very dependable fantasy selection so far, with three Top 10 finishes and a fifth-place showing last week. Kenseth has finished in the Top Five in five of his past seven Atlanta starts. He finished 12th in both AMS races last year. He is also fourth in Quality Passes (304). If he had more impressive Loop Data numbers at Atlanta, he'd rank even higher this week.

9. Tony Stewart: He does not look quite ready to flash his best form yet, but Stewart is capable of catching fire at any time and you will at least get a solid showing from him this week. Stewart has two wins, eight Top Fives and 13 Top 10s in 22 AMS starts. He ranks fifth in DR (98.6) and fourth in ARP (11.4). Stewart may not push for a win this week, yet if you are leaning on him as your top pick from the draft, he'll ensure that you stay in contention early in the schedule.

10. Kurt Busch: After taking the pole at Vegas, he ran into some bad luck and finished 35th. He is the defending champion of this week's event and must perform well to boost himself from 19th place in the Cup standings. Busch has finished 11th or better in five of his past six AMS starts. He is eighth in DR (93.4) and fifth in Fastest Laps Run (195) at the site. Bank on at least a Top 10 showing.

11. Greg Biffle: He has been a quality fantasy choice so far, and a good bet for another Top 10 finish this week. Biffle has eight Top 10s in 14 Atlanta starts. He ranks seventh in DR (95.0) and third in Fastest Laps Run (213). He has finished in the Top 10 in three of his past four AMS starts. He crashed in the first event at the site in 2009, but rebounded for a 10th-place finish in the second race there.

12. Jeff Burton: Has 13 Top 10s in 31 AMS starts. DR of 85.8

13. Denny Hamlin: Top Six finisher in two of his past three at AMS. 93.2 DR

14. Mark Martin: Tons of experience at Atlanta. He has 23 Top 10s in 48 starts. DR of 88.2

15. Kyle Busch: Only two Top 10s in 11 AMS starts, but has a 90.3 DR.

16. Joey Logano: (55.6 DR)

17. Martin Truex Jr.: (88.5)

18. Jamie McMurray: (72.2)

19. Juan Pablo Montoya: (81.7)

20. David Reutimann: (60.4)

21. Ryan Newman

22. Scott Speed

23. Paul Menard

24. Brian Vickers

25. Elliott Sadler

Scott Engel has been nominated for the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Fantasy Racing Writer of the Year Award in each of the past two years. Direct your Fantasy NASCAR questions to Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

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Scott Engel, RotoExperts.com

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RotoExperts.com is a deluxe fantasy analysis and information site and content development network. Led by award-winning Fantasy veteran Scott Engel, formerly of ESPN and CBS SportsLine, the RotoExperts.com team provides distinctive and in-depth fantasy insights in all sports. RotoExperts.com is an official content provider for NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated and USA Today. RotoExperts.com was nominated for a total of eight industry awards in 2009, and won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Award for Best Humor Article. RotoExperts.com urges you to look for the X- The Mark of Fantasy Excellence.

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