Fantasy Baseball: Zack Greinke vs. Felix Hernandez

March 4, 2010 @ 03:29:27

By Tim Heaney and Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Bryce McRae and Tim Heaney

Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals

Tim Heaney

Greinke's fantasy baseball player profile

• Zack Attack will be back

  Expecting a repeat of '09 levels is insane. Look deeper, though. In each year since Greinke missed almost all of '06, his ERA and control rate have declined while his dominance has climbed. It's a trend, not a fluke.
• Hard to bank on another 16 wins, also, but he should still post a respectable victory tally. Greinke has developed the stamina and efficiency to pitch deep into games, helped by regaining his slider and showing annual increases in first-strike percentage since '06.
• Felix Hernandez has posted four straight seasons with 190-plus innings. He'll be 24 in April. Sure, Felix's K/9 is solid, too, but Hernandez hasn't yet shown what Greinke has in dominance and still pitches a bit more to contact. Plus, it's not like another 19-win season is a lock for a Mariners pitcher.
• Many rave about Safeco Field's pitcher-friendly environment. Kauffman Stadium is far from a bandbox. You can't look at environment alone, but using a favorable pitching ambience as a complement to elite skills doesn't hurt.
• Greinke, 26, is a more seasoned major leaguer who already has experienced massive ups and downs. On and off the field, he has matured and made adjustments since recovering from depression and social anxiety disorder. Don't ignore the mental development of a young arm.

Closing argument: In a keeper league, I'd tab King Felix. In a 2010 draft, I side with Greinke: more dominance and a fresher arm in recent seasons. Though his ERA will likely top 3.00 again, he boasts roto ace skills that would ease a return to earth.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

Cory J. Bonini

Hernandez's fantasy baseball player profile

• King Felix will reign

  Zack Greinke will command ridiculous value based on one big year; his homer and strand rates are much better than his averages; Hernandez has shown stability while growing into an ace in the last four seasons.
• Keeps the ball in the park: Hernandez's HR/FB percentage has dropped three straight years, and his top-notch GB/FB rate in 2008 held up after his banner '09 year (1.77, 1.79). It used to be much higher, but it's still at league-leading levels; he added some dominance to that, so it's a productive trade-off.
• King Felix's HR/9 dropped to 0.57, his lowest in a full season. A strong BABIP (.289) marked another major improvement and falls in line with his elite ability to keep the ball on the ground.
• Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has been better on the road than at home. He also split his stats pretty evenly before and after the break, so you shouldn't expect to experience a rollercoaster performance.
• He set a career high with 19 wins last year. While counting on that kind of production is very risky, the Mariners have improved - in theory - as a team and already possess an elite defense, so suggesting a huge drop-off in the W column seems unfounded.

Closing argument: After years of being lauded as the next elite pitcher, it looks like Hernandez finally made that jump. Drafters should be aware of a chance for regression since he posted such lofty figures last year, but most signs point this royal righty finally being ready (turns 24 April 8) to preside over the kingdom.

KFFL staff verdict

Analyst	Zack Greinke	Felix Hernandez
Nicholas Minnix		X
Tim Heaney	X
Bryce McRae	X
Cory J. Bonini		X
Keith Hernandez	X

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Tim Heaney

Since the Boston University alum joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.

Tim competes in Tout Wars and LABR and appears every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore, as well as frequently on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio.

Follow him on Twitter.

Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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