Fantasy NASCAR Racing

In the Rear-view Mirror: Shelby American

March 1, 2010 @ 00:00:00

In the second consecutive intermediate race of the season, eight of the drivers who comprised the Top 10 at the 1.5 mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway also finished in the Top 10 last week at the low-banked 2.0 mile Auto Club Speedway. With the next race coming at another 1.5-mile track, Atlanta Motor Speedway, many of the same players from the last two weeks should remain in the mix.

Getting to Victory Lane

1. This week it was a safe bet on four tires, not luck, which got Jimmie Johnson into Victory Lane for the second time this season. Johnson started the day 20th before steadily making his way to the front where he led a total of 18 laps. Johnson is now the winningest driver on 1.5-mile tracks with 15 victories, adding to his growing list of accolades.

2. Kevin Harvick came from 34th to finish as the runner-up for the second straight week. Harvick remains the points leader and is leading a very strong and resurgent stable at Richard Childress Racing.

3. Jeff Gordon led 219 of 267 laps but his dominant performance came up short. On Lap 230, the final pit stop for the leaders, Gordon gambled on two tires and was unable to hold onto the lead much longer. Gordon was the only driver to spend the entire race inside the Top 15. Gordon began the season with two straight races in which he started and finished 20th or worse, but has led laps of all three races thus far. Clearly, this strong performance is a great sign for Gordon's direction going forward.

4. Mark Martin gave Hendrick Motorsports three cars in the Top Four, as he finished in the four spot for the second time in as many weeks.

Johnson, Harvick and Martin have all excelled, mirroring their results over the last two weeks on intermediate tracks. With one more race to go in this stretch of the schedule, these three are clearly the elite options. Other drivers that you should strongly consider are Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle, who all had Top 10 finishes at Fontana and Vegas. With little movement among these consistent performers, putting trust in the front-runners appears to be the way to go for Atlanta.

Top heavy

Much of the early-season success has belonged to three teams: Hendrick, RCR and Roush Fenway Racing. Only four drivers have recorded Top 10 finishes in all three races of 2010 thus far: RCR's Harvick and Bowyer, who stand one-two in points, plus Kenseth and Biffle from the Roush camp, sitting fourth and sixth in points respectively. Jeff Burton has two 11th place results while Carl Edwards has finished no worse than 13th. While stacking your lineup with teammates is not always the safest strategy, the trend early into the season is proving otherwise. Among those drivers that had Top 10s at both Fontana and Vegas, only Logano and Stewart are not backed by the aforementioned teams.

From the spotter's tower

In the Top 10 of the points standings, the two surprises are Logano (eighth) and David Reutimann (ninth). Logano is coming off fifth and sixth place finishes, while teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have yet to break the Top 10 this season. Logano will only be 20 years old in May, but already looks like a seasoned vet as he hits many of these tracks in a Sprint Cup car for only the second and third times. Expect Busch and Hamlin to rebound, but clearly, Logano is the guy to start for the time being.

Reutimann has been steady with 15th and 13th place results in the last two weeks. Last year, Reutimann had only one finish worse than 16th at 1.5-mile tracks and continues to look like a solid, but unspectacular option at these courses. At Vegas, Reutimann tied for third with 56 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green flag conditions) but shuffled between 10th and 14th all day.

Marcos Ambrose and Ryan Newman came away from Vegas with 14th and 18th place finishes. Not great, but much better than the two DNFs each began the season with. Last season, both of these drivers were good at several of the upcoming tracks on the schedule and should not be written off as long as bad luck does not strike again at Atlanta.

Regan Smith is coming off finishes of 19th and 21st. His Average Running Position (ARP) in those two races has been 22nd and 24th. On a one-man team with limited equipment, it is unlikely Smith's finishes have much room for improvement. However, if they remain this consistent, he could find a niche for a trusty bottom-tier driver.

After losing an engine last week, Juan Pablo Montoya's bad luck continued as he taken out of the race by teammate Jamie McMurray. It did not come as a surprise, but Montoya had some barbed comments afterwards for McMurray. Prior to the start of the season, Montoya was on the bust list of many experts, me included. However, neither of these results was his fault and should not be held against him going forward. McMurray, on the other hand has been a very streaky driver in his career, so these kinds of ups and downs are to be expected.

The rear axle issue at Hendrick that crippled Johnson at Daytona and Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Fontana did not show up at Vegas. Atlanta, which has a much steeper banking than either track, will prove a more worthy test of the situation, but things appear to be safe for the time being.

The starting grid

At 48.59 percent ownership, Kyle Busch, the most trusted A List driver in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Auto Racing, was a letdown with his 15th place finish at Vegas. Gordon (19.46 percent) proved to be the bargain as the fifth-most owned driver. His third place finish and the bonus points given for leading the most laps allowed Gordon to record the most fantasy points.

Kevin Harvick (66.21 percent) and Matt Kenseth (50.38) were the most owned and delivered the highest scores among the B List drivers. Breaking from the pack can often times pay dividends if those over the 50 percent ownership mark disappoint, but that has yet to happen in this stacked grouping. Notable deals, given their ownership to performance levels, were Logano (18.01 percent), Reutimann (12.16 percent) and Ambrose (2.44 percent).

Drivers on the C List are a bit of a mess right now. A.J. Allmendinger (44.35) and Bobby Labonte (20.47 percent) continue to see a lot of ownership despite no finishes on the lead lap this season for either driver. The all-but-retired Michael Waltrip (5.90 percent) and Casey Mears (5.30 percent), who has failed to qualify for a race, should not even be rostered. With nine starts apiece, you can get by with trusting only four drivers in this group for the entire season. For the moment, the two best options are Scott Speed (51.36 percent) and Paul Menard (22.46 percent). Menard's finishes have ranged from 13th to 18th while Speed has been between 11th and 22nd. Allmendinger has arguably the most upside and the best equipment among this group. His ownership level is too high and results too poor to give him much consideration with several C List options out-performing him on a weekly basis.

Overachievers

Among drivers that finished in the Top 10 at Vegas, Kasey Kahne held the worst ARP (14th) and spent the fewest laps inside the Top 15 (58.4 percent). Regardless, this performance is a huge sigh of relief after two promising runs soured on Kahne to commence the season.

Menard finished 17th but held an ARP of 21st and got into the Top 15 for only three percent of the race. The driver has been among the better low-end options and has to be considered as a cheap salary cap option.

Underachievers

Although their finishes are still quite good, seventh and 12th respectively, Stewart and Edwards each drove 99.6 percent of the race inside the Top 15, but were simply unable to erase the large leads put up by the front runners. After getting lost in the middle of the pack at Daytona, Stewart has quickly rebounded and looks to be a safe start. Edwards has been solid throughout, but has not yet challenged for a Top Five, so saving his starts in limited allocation formats is wise for the time being.

Kyle Busch held an ARP of seventh but finished 15th after a late pit road speeding penalty kept him out of contention. He was the only driver who compiled a Driver Rating (101.1 DR) over 100.0 that did not finish in the Top 10. Despite starting inside the Top 10 for all three races this season, Busch has finished 14th twice and 15th once, although his ARP has improved from 11th to ninth to seventh. While the finishes haven't been there, Busch should be headed in the right direction if these late-race issues can be resolved.

Among drivers who made up the Top 10 at the midway point of the race, only Busch and Burton, who needed an unexpected pit stop late in the race, finished outside the Top 10. Burton finished 11th but ran has high as third and will continue to be a threat with his other RCR teammates.

Around the corner

Atlanta is also a 1.5-mile track but with more banking, which will result in more speed. Momentum over the last two is likely to play a big factor. After Atlanta, the next intermediate track, Texas Motor Speedway, is three races down the schedule as it moves from the seventh race of the season to number eight. Like Charlotte Motor Speedway, the 13th race of the season, all three of these tracks are 1.5 miles long, banked at 24 degrees in the corners and hold two races apiece. Those races make up all 1.5-mile events held in the first half of the season.

*All stats up-to-date as of 3/1.

Contact Eric at emcclung@rotoexperts.com and follow him on Twitter @ericmcclung.

Author Bio

Eric McClung, RotoExperts.com

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