Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft: Round 3

by KFFL Staff on February 18, 2010 @ 13:00:00 PDT


Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28
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1) Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets

Team: Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus | Roster

With a small pool of elite shortstops this year, I decided to take a chance on a bounce back season from "Jose ... Jose, Jose, Jose ... Jose, Jose!" Some of my Mets bias is showing. But seriously, Reyes is just an injury-marred season away from being a top-five fantasy pick. Early reports from Florida indicate the fleet-footed Reyes is back at full speed and driving the ball with authority. I can't wait to see that .300/.370/.475 line with 60 SB, 100-plus runs and 70-plus RBI at the end of the season. I'll be the first to say "I told you so!"

2) Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, San Francisco Giants

Team: Ryan Lester, Lester's Legends | Roster

With five players with third base eligibility going in the first 24 picks, the position is drying up rather quickly. Not that it's a deep one to begin with. Sandoval should help maintain the high batting average I've established so far, while bring some power and run production. I'm predicting another .330 year for the Kung Fu Panda with 85 runs, 25 HR, and 85 RBI. If the Giants are able to add another bat, his RBI total should increase.

3) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres

Team: Doug Anderson, RotoExperts | Roster

New York Mets SS Jose Reyes
Reyes of hope for a comeback?

For a guy who popped 40 homers last year, Gonzalez doesn't seem to get much love from the expert crowd. I know all about PETCO Park and that weak Padres lineup, but I'll run with last year's numbers. Then there's the likelihood that he gets dealt, most likely to a contender in a much better lineup. Gonzalez gives me two rock-solid corners, which you have to have in a 12-team mixed league. I'll need to address my middle infield in the next few rounds, but my first three picks of A-Rod, Justin Upton, and Gonzalez have set a base for my offense that will allow me to choose the best players without being a slave to categories.

4) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

Team: Collin Hager, | Roster

In Round 2, Ellsbury is overvalued. Middle of the third round, I like what I am getting. Ellsbury makes up for Reynolds' average with an ability to hit .300. He'll get on base, steal more than 55 bases and score runs at the top of a good lineup. There's power upside, as well. If he were to hit 15 home runs this season, it would not be a surprise. Knowing that he is going to provide numbers in three categories at a minimum, I selected him over Jason Bay and Grady Sizemore. Bay was crossed out based on the. Sizemore was a tougher decision, but I liked the value from Ellsbury more.

5) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Team: Jeff Paur, RTSports | Roster

Thought about going first base with this pick, but the lack of top options at second made going for Pedroia the safer pick in my view. Pedroia is a young player that can get better, which is exciting considering his success the last two seasons. He can approach 20-20 status this season, which takes him to a new level. His run totals and batting average will be among the best at the second base spot.

6) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

Team: Nicholas Minnix, KFFL | Roster

When you see an established set of skills that involve minimum 20-20 production at the keystone and no glaring negative trends, you draft it with confidence. A few names behind Phillips in ADP carry great potential, too, but he's a more dependable choice. There are positive signs for his BA to tick upward. He fits my theme of across-the-board money earners thus far. I didn't really consider anyone else.

7) Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

Team: Steve Gardner, USA Today | Roster

I had my sights set on either Pablo Sandoval or Dustin Pedroia. Of course they weren't there. So I took the top rated player on my board, Grady Sizemore. I think Sizemore gets back to his pre-injury 30 HR-30 SB level of production. I had him just a shade better than Jayson Werth, who was also available, even though I was tempted to take Roy Halladay and just go all in for pitching. I'm still amazed that only one pitcher was taken by pick 31.

8) Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees

Team: Harold Nichols, Baseball HQ | Roster

San Diego Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez
Will A-Gon B-gon as often in 2010?

Exceptional performance in new Yankee Stadium (13 HR there) should keep his power numbers up. Hit rate will regress from last season's 37 percent, but he's still a consistent .300 hitter. And if he gets the green light, he'll produce 20-plus steals. Even at age 36, he's still a stud in a thin shortstop field.

9) Brian Roberts, 2B, Baltimore Orioles

Team: Ray Flowers, Baseball Guys | Roster

I targeted three players. Grady Sizemore went right before I was up, so my choice was between Ichiro and Roberts. I wanted to go with Ichiro, but given that Roberts was the last second baseman available in the top tier, I decided to go for the second sacker. If this league did not include a middle infield position I would have taken Ichiro, but it does so I wanted to make sure I had some strength up the middle.

10) Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Team: Tim Heaney, KFFL | Roster

A scarcity-fueled selection was whispering sweet nothings, but I resisted, hoping he'd make it back at some point in the future. Outfield is deep, but I wanted to snag a top pop option. Werth offered the best pairing of HR and SB available. Elite patience all but guarantees another 20-steal season. Batting average? His only detriment. I'll worry about that later. Give me the four counting stats first.

11) Jason Bay, OF, New York Mets

Team: Pasko Varnica, Mastersball | Roster

His ADP so far this year is 24. I picked him as the 35th player of the draft. So far, so good. The big question: Will Bay be as productive with the Mets as he was last year with the Red Sox? I do not think anyone knows. I expect between 25 and 30 HR, which is less than last year's 36, the same average around .270, and close to 100 runs and 130 RBI.

12) Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Team: Eriq Gardner, The Hardball Times | Roster

Some will look at Votto and see a 1B with a combination of power and average not very far from first-rounders like Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. Others may head-scratch and wonder what Votto has got over 1B like Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee taken later. He missed a month last season and finished as one of the most valuable players in baseball. That's enough to sell me on this potential breakout player entering his magical age-27 season.

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28
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