Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 5
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II brings you behind the scenes with each fantasy football pick. Who did each fantasy football expert consider? What do they need the selected player to accomplish on the fantasy football field to make the pick a success? Tune in for each round and find out! Along the way, we welcome you to share your thoughts on each selection and each fantasy football team as they develop!
Reason: In a league that starts three WRs, I decided grabbing a WR over a RB was my best move here. Of the available WRs, Holmes was the most attractive to me thanks to his potential to hit breakout mode. He finished off the 2008 season with a Super Bowl MVP award, which I see as a sign of things to come for Holmes.
Standards Set: I see Holmes with 73 receptions, 1,180 receiving yards and eight TDs when all is said and done.
Reason: He's back. Johnson has only played in 20 games over the last two seasons, which to me means, he should be fresh. I'm looking for a bounce back season out of Johnson. With a decent QB to relieve some of the pressure off Johnson, look for him to re-establish himself as a top-15 running back.
Standards Set: I'm expecting 1,121 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 222 receiving yards and one TD.
Reason: Targeting a top-seven fantasy QB is definitely a preferred method for me this year. There is just too much uncertainty after the first seven or eight guys are gone, so give me a QB that puts up fantastic numbers whenever he is healthy. McNabb was just shy of 4,000 passing yards last year and had 23 touchdown passes, and now he gets another WR in the draft (Jeremy Maclin) and a third-year tight end ready to step up (Brent Celek), along with two backs that can also catch (Leonard Weaver and rookie LeSean McCoy).
Standards Set: McNabb should push close to 4,000 passing yards again with 22-26 touchdown passes and only half as many interceptions. While he may not scramble much any longer, he should also run a TD or two in as well.
Reason: I think the Colts get back to a ground attack that still features Addai as the main back, even though Indy spent a first-round pick on another running back in Donald Brown. Addai sees that as motivation and should be able to rebound to look more like his former time-sharing self.
Standards Set: I'm looking for 900-1,000 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and at least 10 total touchdowns from Addai. I don't see why he can't come close to his 2006 and 2007 seasons' production.
Reason: Lynch is nothing more than a pure value pick at this slot. He has fallen a little in this draft as his ADP, according to MyFantasyLeague.com, is 42, and I get him with the 53rd pick, which is almost an entire round worth of value. There isn't too much left at RB, and with me drafting boom-or-bust players in Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush, I wanted to mitigate my risk by drafting a third. The Larry Fitzgerald pick in the first round has opened this draft up so that I can draft RBs and Jason Witten and likely still get a solid QB and have a good starting lineup.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: He is suspended for the first three games of the season. He has put on mass, and I expect his TDs to go up. Even with his suspension, I expect to see 1,200 yards combined along with 8-10 TDs and a fair amount of receptions.
Reason: This was a real spot of debate for me. I knew I would start out with two wideouts and two running backs in some order. However, the fifth round is where I had to make a choice – another RB (for flex), WR, TE or QB. I opted for Warner since QB is the highest-scoring position, and Warner has a prolific offense that is facing one of the easiest passing schedules of any NFL team. I get a top-five QB here in the 5th round and I am very pleased. Warner is one of the most consistently scoring quarterbacks and coming off a NFC Championship means lots of teams will be forcing them to throw.
Standards Set: I'm expecting 4,300 yards and 30 TDs.
Reason: I've been advising fantasy owners to wait on drafting QBs this season, but I've seen Rivers consistently go as high as the third round. When he "fell" to the middle of the fifth, I felt he was simply the best value on the board. Several younger RBs in timeshares were still available, but I figured locking up my signal caller with a top-tier player capable of outscoring all other QBs taken before him was a smart move. Plus, I still have plenty of sleepers in my back pocket for the next few rounds.
Standards Set: I'm looking for 4,200 passing yards and 30 TDs from Rivers this year.
Reason: I considered Ward last round because I didn't think he'd be here. Surprise, surprise. Ward gets his shot to be featured in Tampa Bay's offense after rushing for 1,025 yards with the New York Giants in 2008. His two TDs are a concern, but he added 384 receiving yards on 41 catches, a plus in this scoring format. While Earnest Graham is the likely goal line rusher, the Buccaneers will be a run-first team, making Ward a solid flex option in standard and PPR leagues.
Other Considered: None when I saw Ward fall.
Standard Set: I'm looking for 1,000 yards rushing, 45 receptions for 320 yards and seven total TDs.
Reason: I am taking a chance that Wells will excel with the Cardinals. He brings them explosiveness that both Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower lacked. If he can stay healthy, he should have a solid rookie campaign.
Standards Set: I'm expecting 1,150 yards, eight TDs and 10 receptions.
Reason: This is Gonzalez's opportunity to play for a contender that he really wanted. He will become an integral part of an offense guided by a young quarterback on the rise. As a prime part of a developing and balanced offense, Gonzalez is primed for a superb season.
Others Considered: None. I am fully convinced he will be the obvious No. 1 TE in fantasy this season.
Standards Set: Gonzalez should catch over 80 balls this season; another 1,000-plus yards this season is an apparent given, and he should catch a minimum of seven TD passes.
Reason: With just one running back on my roster through four rounds, and a flex position available in this league, adding a back here was imperative. With Willis McGahee in the doghouse and Le'Ron McClain tipping the scales at a robust 260 pounds, I am confident Ray Rice will be the man in Baltimore. He may give way on short yardage and goal line situations, but he should make up for it with his pass-catching ability out of the backfield.
Standards Set: In Baltimore's ball-control offense, I see Rice catching 55 passes out of the backfield, amassing 1,200 total yards and seven touchdowns.
Reason: Watching quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Philip Rivers go before my pick was brutal. I fully expected one of them to fall to me. Romo will provide the most consistency and explosiveness of those left. He's a good athlete with a strong arm who can throw on the move from any angle. He just needs to stop making mistakes. The release of wide receiver Terrell Owens is addition by subtraction as Romo will not force as many passes Owens' way to keep him happy. In fact, tight end Jason Witten, Romo's favorite target, doesn't drop passes like Owens does and is more of a No. 2 receiver. Speaking of last year's numbers, Romo had a quarterback rating of 114.7 in the fourth quarter showing he stays strong throughout the game, and he threw for more yards per game last year than he did in 2007. Some highlights: He had six games of 300 passing yards and six games with three touchdown passes. In total, he had eight multi-touchdown games in 13 starts and averaged 265.2 yards passing per game. No. 1 wideout Roy Williams has a full offseason of the playbook under his belt, and while with Detroit he had three seasons of seven-plus touchdowns with subpar quarterback play. Don't sell him short based on last year's play.
Standards Set: KFFL projects 3,865 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 39 rush attempts, 109 rushing yards and one touchdown.
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