Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 4
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II brings you behind the scenes with each fantasy football pick. Who did each fantasy football expert consider? What do they need the selected player to accomplish on the fantasy football field to make the pick a success? Tune in for each round and find out! Along the way, we welcome you to share your thoughts on each selection and each fantasy football team as they develop!
Reason: Receivers were flying off the board, and I wanted balance at both running back and wideout. I went with wide receiver whereas I normally stick to running backs or a top-tier quarterback. However, I felt I could still grab a great quarterback in the fifth round and running back committees allow me to hold off a round for my back. Last year Jackson had career highs with 59 receptions, 1,098 yards, seven touchdowns and an incredible 18.6 yards per catch, which led receivers with 50 or more receptions. Jackson can go vertical (he's a former college basketball player) and caught 16 balls that went through the air at least 20 yards. He's able to use his size and power to outmuscle smaller defenders, and he's a huge red zone target at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He finished strong in December with 20 receptions, 395 yards and two touchdowns. Finally, he's young enough (26) to improve and has increased his yards and receptions each of the last three seasons.
Others Considered: I kept looking at quarterback Aaron Rodgers and briefly considered Santonio Holmes, but felt he would last one more round. My chair, Bryce McRae, brought up Chad Ochocinco but I liked Jackson better as the team around him has fewer questions.
Standards Set: KFFL projects 69 receptions, 1,125 yards, nine touchdowns and even some rush attempts, seven for 25 yards.
Reason: Oil is to water as Ryan Fitzpatrick is to Chad Ochocinco. I couldn't think of a more appropriate analogy to sum up Ochocinco's miserable '08. But alas, Carson Palmer (elbow) returns, and with him he brings Ochocinco's return to fantasy prominence. His average stats in the five seasons prior to '08 were 92.4 receptions for 1,374 yards and 8.6 touchdowns. I really find it hard to believe a bounce back isn't coming provided Palmer remains healthy and under center for the entire '09 season.
Standards Set: I am expecting 80 receptions for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns.
Reason: There is not going to be any real RB battle in Denver. The Broncos didn't draft Moreno where they did to have him lose significant carries to other mediocre veterans. Moreno is a tough inside runner who will be used to take pressure off Kyle Orton. He won't score a ton of TDs, as the Denver offense will be much less potent this season than last. Still, Moreno should make an instant impact as a No. 2 fantasy RB.
Standards Set: Moreno should have some good games, but I am not looking for multiple TD performances. I will take the scores when I can get 'em. I expect a minimum of 1,150 rushing yards and six rushing TDs.
Reason: I just couldn't pass up the value of Peyton Manning in the fourth round. You can practically plug him in for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs every year. Despite the turnover in Indianapolis, Manning should have another big year in him. He should be fully healthy and determined to improve on a somewhat disappointing 2008 season.
Others Considered: None. It's Peyton Manning in the fourth round.
Standards Set: I'm looking for 4,400 yards, 28 TDs and 12 INTs.
Reason: The third-year pro has everything I look for first in a breakout WR, including a spot in a prolific offense, an elite signal caller, strong supporting cast and whether he has his QB's trust. Check to all. Gonzalez has shown flashes since his rookie season and proved to be a solid possession receiver while showing he could also get deep if needed. As for the arguments about not enough balls to go around, that didn't stop the released Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark from being top options for many leagues in recent years. After you've secured your No. 1 WR, you'll have an opportunity to swing for the fences with breakout potential over playing it safe with an aging veteran in Rounds 4-7. The choice should be obvious; you go with the former.
Standard Set: Indianapolis should pass enough for Gonzalez to produce 76 catches for 1,100 yards and six TDs.
Reason: Royal came out of nowhere to catch 91 balls as a rookie a year ago. He has looked amazing in off-season workouts and thus far in training camp, he's reportedly caught everything in sight. Swept under the current of the Brandon Marshall saga, Royal is being overlooked in many drafts. In non-PPR leagues, he may be a guy to avoid this season, as it's unknown how many times he'll have the opportunity to score touchdowns, but in points per reception leagues like this one, he's a great value in the middle of the fourth round. Why? Simple - he'll play the Wes Welker role in Josh McDaniels' offense, virtually guaranteeing him 100 catches. You may have noticed that Marshall was actually my previous pick. I have no concerns with holding two Denver WRs as my top two pass catchers. It may look risky now, but when the games start being played, it'll pay off.
Others Considered: Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes
Standards Set: I'm looking for 100 receptions, 1,100 yards and four TDs.
Reason: This is a risky pick but one with upside. I've played it pretty safe on my first three picks and a swing for the fences was in order. After 21 RBs have been taken, I get a player who could be top ten if he stays healthy and delivers on the promise he held as a rookie before getting turf toe for most of the season. He plays in the weakest division in the NFL – at the least I expect some big games. Maybe all big games? It's worth the roll of the dice here. I had to take a RB with this pick or my second back would have been dismal by next round.
Standards Set: I'm expecting around 900 rushing yards and five rushing TDs. Through the air, I'm looking for 40 receptions, 560 receiving yards and two TDs.
Reason: I hemmed and hawed over this pick as I really don't want to be that guy that drafts a TE early but Jason Witten is an exception. The Cowboys don't have a lot of capable targets in the end zone and Tony Romo and Jason Witten have already established chemistry. With the departure of Terrell Owens, Jason Witten will be a beast at the position, particularly from a fantasy perspective.
Standards Set: I believe 90 receptions, 1,000-plus yards and eight TDs are all within his grasp.
Reason: Williams is a physical specimen that few other wideouts compare to. With Terrell Owens out of the picture, Williams has a full offseason to work as the No. 1 option and gain chemistry with quarterback Tony Romo. Williams stunk it up like no other in 2008, so his motivation should be at its highest point.
Standards Set: I expect a minimum of 70 receptions, 1,150 receiving yards and eight touchdown receptions.
Reason: I was hoping for a different option for my second wideout, but it is hard to pass up on an explosive No. 1 WR when he is available this late. With the departure of Kellen Winslow to Tampa Bay, the ball has to be headed to Edwards at least eight or nine times a game. Couple that with issues at their other starting spot and a below average defense and Edwards should get plenty of opportunity to collect 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. DeSean Jackson was my only other possibility here, but his bye week would be a problem for my next pick, which I knew would be QB based on Drew Brees going to FantasyPros911.com already.
Standards Set: I'm looking for 80-plus receptions and over 1,100 yards, with Edwards overcoming his drops enough to find the end zone 8-10 times this year.
Reason: I'm looking for DeSean Jackson to be more productive then his rookie season. Barring any injuries, Jackson should enjoy his first of many 1,000-yard years. Look for the Eagles to pass more this year, which makes Jackson even more attractive in the fourth to sixth round.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: I'm looking for 1,095 receiving yards and eight TDs.
Reason: Rodgers is a top-tier QB in my book so grabbing him at the end of the fourth round is a steal. QBs are going slowly in this league but after Rodgers there was a significant drop-off so I didn't think twice about grabbing A-Rod here. Rodgers has Greg Jennings and Donald Driver not to mention a slew of young receivers to throw to - and a pretty lax schedule toward the end of the season.
Others Considered: None
Standards Set: I'm expecting about 4,075 passing yards, 30 TDs (including one rushing TD) and 11 INTs.
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