Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 3

by KFFL Staff on August 3, 2009 @ 01:00:01 PDT's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II brings you behind the scenes with each fantasy football pick. Who did each fantasy football expert consider? What do they need the selected player to accomplish on the fantasy football field to make the pick a success? Tune in for each round and find out! Along the way, we welcome you to share your thoughts on each selection and each fantasy football team as they develop!

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
League Homepage | Scoring Rules | Team Rosters

1) Dwayne Bowe, wide receiver, Kansas City Chiefs

Team: Sara Holladay, | Team Roster

Reason: I love Bowe in a PPR league - he's got big potential (look how well he's played with a hodgepodge of QBs in KC over the past few years) and is the main guy Cassel will be looking to now that Gonzo is gone to ATL. 

Others Considered: New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall

Standards Set: I'm looking for 98 receptions, 1200 yards and eight TDs.

2) Drew Brees, quarterback, New Orleans Saints

Team: Paul Greco, | Team Roster

Reason: The No. 1 quarterback off the board, hard not to like. I was in a position that if I passed on a good quarterback at this point, someone I could rely on week in and week out, I wouldn't be able to get him on my next selection. Plus, I love the schedule he has to face this year - no cold-weather teams in December.

Others Considered: New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas

Standards Set: I'm expecting 4,700 yds passing, 33 TDs and 16 INTs.

3) Ronnie Brown, running back, Miami Dolphins

Team: Jeff Pasquino, | Team Roster

Reason: Brown was one of the last feature running backs left on the table in this draft, and knowing that plus the fact that you can start three RBs every week made him the easy choice. Brown faces little challenge from Ricky Williams for playing time, and with uncertainty for Miami at both WR and QB this year, Brown should be in for 20-plus touches a game. His versatility allowed him to run the Wildcat for the Dolphins and gives him added dimensions to rack up the fantasy numbers.

Others Considered: New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs, New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush

Standards Set: I'm looking for 50-plus receptions out of the backfield, but more importantly I expect 300 carries and over 1,200 yards plus a double-digit TD season.

4) Brandon Jacobs, running back, New York Giants

Team: Cory J. Bonini, | Team Roster

Reason: I'm convinced LaDainian Tomlinson will bounce back with a fury in 2009, and Jacobs could combine with LT to produce 30 touchdowns from my top two backs. The 27-year-old Jacobs is in his prime. If he can remain healthy, I'm looking at having a top-five fantasy back on my hands. I'm a little worried about the Giants' inexperienced receiving corps not being able to keep defenses honest, though.

Others Considered: Detroit Lions running back Kevin Smith, New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush

Standards Set: If Jacobs can miraculously play a full season's worth of games, I think he is capable of 1,400 rushing yards and a minimum of 14 touchdowns. I'll be content with 1,100 yards and 12 scores.

5) Reggie Bush, running back, New Orleans Saints

Team: Tony Holm, | Team Roster

Reason: In a PPR league, Bush has the potential to be a monster. I have taken a risk drafting Brian Westbrook and now Reggie Bush, but I'll shoot the moon as those points per reception will be money and do make a big difference. 

Others Considered: New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. I flip flopped between the two as I also like Welker a lot in this format but took the RB.

Standards Set: 70-plus receptions. If Bush catches 70 or more balls, everything else will work out fine.

6) Wes Welker, wide receiver, New England Patriots

Team: David Dorey, | Team Roster

Reason: I still think this is too early for a QB and the RBs are all high-risk or low-reward guys now. I only have three players in my second tier for WR so I opted for the safest pick on the board: Wes Welker, who had almost the exact same stats in 2007 and 2008 regardless of Tom Brady being injured last year. He doesn't have a big upside, but I have to love a WR that will get more than 100 catches. He'll offer nice consistency for me.

Others Considered: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Ochocinco and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Standards Set: I'm expecting 1,140 yards and six TDs.

7) Brandon Marshall, wide receiver, Denver Broncos

Team: Paul Hickey, | Team Roster

Reason: You may not have heard, but there has been a little bit of controversy surrounding the Broncos fourth-year stud WR this off-season. From his off-the-field domestic issues to his trade demands, his future looks a little uncertain, which is why I believe he fell into the second half of the third round. But look, it was late July when I made this pick, and within the next month he will be on the field somewhere (likely Denver) and ready to begin the season without a suspension. Hey, and even if he is suspended, he'll still catch more than 100 balls - as he did last year. So, where others saw a risk and passed, I saw one of the top four most talented WRs in the league fall to me in the third round. Book it.

Others Considered: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno - I love him, but I couldn't pass on a WR for the second straight round in a PPR league.

Standards Set: I'm looking for 90-110 receptions, 1,200-1,400 yards and 10-15 TDs.

8) Pierre Thomas, running back, New Orleans Saints

Team: Herbie Teope, Time Warner Cable | Team Roster

Reason: The third-year pro has a lot of positive things going for him this season after averaging 4.8 yards per carry last season, while exploding in Weeks 11-16 with 677 total yards (475 rushing) and nine total scores. It's forever wise to get a piece of a prolific offense, and Thomas, who added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, is a strong bet to continue his exceptional 2008 play. He's versatile enough to see action in passing downs, a plus for PPR leagues. I'm not too concerned about Reggie Bush, who returns from his third knee operation in the last two seasons.

Others Considered: Detroit Lions running back Kevin Smith

Standards Set: If Reggie Bush stays healthy, which is no sure thing given his history, it's reasonable to expect Pierre Thomas to gain 1,500 total yards (1,200 rushing - 35 receptions for 300 yards receiving) and eight TDs. However, expect Thomas to better those totals when Bush has his annual knee injury.

9) Kevin Smith, running back, Detroit Lions

Team: Ryan Lester, | Team Roster

Reason: Smith had a great rookie year considering he played on a winless team. He ran for nearly 1,000 yards, 976 to be exact, with eight TDs. He added 39 receptions for 286 yards, which makes him an asset in PPR leagues. In the second half, Smith averaged nearly 100 yards and 0.50 TDs per game. If he can replicate those numbers with an improved Offense, Smith will be a great value at the bottom of Round 3.

Others considered: Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant

Standards Set: I'm expecting 1,150 rushing yards, 45 receptions for 350 receiving yards and eight TDs.

10) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, wide receiver, Seattle Seahawks

Team: Scott Engel, | Team Roster

Reason: Houshmandzadeh will flourish as long as Matt Hasselbeck stays upright and protected. A big target, Housh will be perfect to catch timing passes and use his height in a controlled passing game. Houshmandzadeh also gives the Seahawks a nifty red zone target they haven;t had in a long time. He'll have quality complements and a good supporting cast.

Others Considered: No one else. Houshmandzadeh stood out to me as the best available player.

Standards Set: Better than last year, but not quite 2007 style: 85 catches, 1,100-plus yards and a minimum of seven TD receptions.

11) Tom Brady, quarterback, New England Patriots

Team: Ian Riley, OPEN Sports | Team Roster

Reason: Sure, it's hard not to at least be a little concerned about Brady's surgically repaired left knee, but you will have to excuse me if I just can't shake the visions of the '07 Brady dancing in my head. Last I checked Randy Moss and Wes Welker were still with the team. In fact, I would have to say the '09 supporting cast is even better with the additions of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Bill Belichick would not have traded away Matt Cassel without confidence in the fact that Brady could lead this team back to the playoffs. My hopes are that Brady leads my team there as well.

Others Considered: None, in fact I had my fingers crossed he fell to me.

Standards Set: While I would love to see him match his record setting '07 totals, I think it is more than reasonable to expect 80 percent of that output. With that being said, 3,850 yards passing and 35 touchdowns are numbers I expect to see.

12) Ryan Grant, running back, Green Bay Packers

Team: William Del Pilar, | Team Roster

Reason: No matter how you slice it with how "great" wide receivers are in today's fantasy hobby, you cannot find quality running backs on the waiver wire. Thus, you better have quality starters and depth. I wanted another solid fantasy starter, and Grant was the best on the board. He's not flashy or spectacular, but what I like about him: Despite his holdout and a nagging hamstring, he still carried the ball 312 times, he thrives in the Packers zone-blocking scheme, and I view his 3.9 yards per carry and five total touchdowns as direct results of his holdout and hamstring injury. For those that say he can't catch, I won't argue but I know this: He only caught eight passes in the first three months of the season, but in the final three games he had nine. He also finished the final four weeks with 20-plus utilizations and a combined 102.5 yards per game. I expect better than average improvement this season.

Others Considered: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Derrick Ward and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We felt Ward would share time and is injury prone, while we thought Rodgers could fall to us in the fifth round.

Standards Set: KFFL projects 294 attempts, 1,264 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 24 receptions, 130 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
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