Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II - Round 1
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft II brings you behind the scenes with each fantasy football pick. Who did each fantasy football expert consider? What do they need the selected player to accomplish on the fantasy football field to make the pick a success? Tune in for each round and find out! Along the way, we welcome you to share your thoughts on each selection and each fantasy football team as they develop!
Reason: As the featured back in Jacksonville now that Fred Taylor has left, MJD is looking at a monster year ahead. His touches will increase, he's so far shown he can be durable (only missed one game in his career), he's running behind a promising offensive line, and he's a reception and TD machine. There's some risk in grabbing Jones-Drew with the No. 1 overall pick, but his payout is likely to be massive in this PPR league.
Standards Set: I'm expecting at least 1,255 rushing yards, 62 receptions, 575 receiving yards, 14 TDs.
Reason: It's hard not to like the effort that Peterson puts out each and every week. Many "experts," including those at FantasyPros911.com, have him ranked No. 1 overall even in PPR leagues. So getting him in the No. 2 spot was very satisfying. Let's be honest though, you really can't go wrong with the No. 2 overall pick.
Standards Set: I hope for no less than 1,525 rushing yards, 225 receiving yards and 15 total TDs.
Reason: Steven Jackson is a stud RB when he is healthy, and by all accounts he is at 100 percent and ready to go for this year. The Rams are struggling on offense, so they plan to focus on getting Jackson 20-plus touches a game and get him involved in the passing attack. As for my other options, Michael Turner's touches are likely to go down and LaDainian Tomlinson has Darren Sproles fighting for touches, age and injury all adding up against him. Matt Forte should be a stud, but Jay Cutler was not brought in to hand off on every play, plus the Bears are also considering reducing Forte's workload. Round 1 is about minimizing risk, so taking Jackson gives me a player that should be a solid foundation for a start.
Other considerations: Tomlinson, Turner and Forte
Standards Set: I'm expecting 50 catches and a combined 1,500-1,600 yards from Jackson, along with double-digit touchdowns on the ground.
Reason: I am not sold on Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte, and Tomlinson represented the best chance for a huge season at this point. I would have strongly considered him if I had the No. 2 overall pick. LT is healthy and should benefit from an improved offensive line. He accounted for more than 1,500 offensive yards and 12 total touchdowns in a down year last season. That's a great year for many backs.
Other considerations: None
Standards Set: I expect at least 1,300 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 400 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns from Tomlinson in '09.
Reason: RBs are a crap shoot this year, and there will be some when I pick again, then some more later in the draft, so I'll try something different and draft a WR early as there is a three-receiver starting requirement in this league.
Standards Set: If he can duplicate last year's 96 catches for 1,434 yards and 12 TDs this pick will be a good one.
Reason: Though the wideouts are going higher than ever this season, I still believe you need to snag a running back if you have a pick less than, say, No. 10. Later in the season is when the running game is most heavily used and when you need that No. 1 pick to deliver. Johnson is one of the very few top-10 running backs from 2008 that I expect to turn in a bigger year, as do his coaches. He's electric in open space and is supposed to get more passes this year.
Standards Set: I'm hoping for 1,300 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs and 60 receptions for 380 with two receiving TDs.
Reason: I couldn't believe that the No. 1 player on nooffseason.com's seasonal PPR draft board was available with the seventh overall pick. Forte is built to carry the rock 300 times and catch 70 passes in 2009. With Jay Cutler on board, Forte will be even scarier in his second season as defenses will need to respect the pass. Think Steven Jackson circa 2006 when predicting Forte's 2009 digits. I just got 1:01 value at 1:07 and I'm ecstatic.
Others Considered: Honestly, none. I'd normally consider a top WR in PPR leagues at 1:07, but with Forte still on the board this was a no-brainer.
Standards Set: I'm expecting at least 1,400 total yards, 50 receptions and 10 TDs, but he'll blow those figures out of the water.
Reason: It's deja vu for me, as I drafted Turner at 1.07 the night before for a point-per-reception (PPR) scoring format. Turner had just six catches in 2008, which on the surface makes him appear useless in a PPR league. However, he finished as a top-three RB scorer in PPR leagues last season. The top consideration is whether you agree with the "370 Curse" I've seen attached to his name this offseason. And while I'm slightly concerned with his workload and the tougher schedule, it's not enough to shy away at this spot regardless of PPR or standard scoring.
Others Considered: None once Turner fell in my lap.
Standards Set: Even if Turner doesn't match last season's 1,699 yards rushing and 17 TDs, I'll take a projected 1,400 yards rushing and 13 TDs for my No. 1 RB. The addition of TE Tony Gonzalez ensures defenses can't sell out to stop the run.
Reason: In a PPR league I would rather invest my first round pick on an elite WR than a somewhat questionable RB. Johnson hauled in 115 passes for 1,575 yards and eight TDs. He has another 100-plus reception season on his resume in 2006. Now that the Texans have a capable running game in Steve Slaton and targets to take some of the pressure off in Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter, Johnson should be able to put up another monster year.
Standards Set: I expect around 105 receptions, 1,450 yards and 10 TDs.
Reason: It was not a shock to see Slaton fall to my slot. He's certainly not a top-five pick, but in a PPR format, he is absolutely the best value I can get late in the first round. Slaton may not be capable of carrying a heavy load over the full season, so if the Texans identify someone else to share touches (Arian Foster?) it can only help keep him fresh and consistently productive.
Others Considered: I considered Brandon Jacobs for a second, then remembered the scoring format.
Standards Set: I'm hoping Slaton can play a full 16 games. I'm worried about injuries if they overwork him, but I know I will get solid all-around production when he plays. I'm looking for over 1,300 yards and just under 10 total TDs in combined work from scrimmage.
Reason: With this being a PPR league, I felt it essential to get my hands on Gore, who has averaged 51 receptions a season over the last three years. Injuries are always a concern, but if the past is any indication, Gore can still miss a game or two and finish with top-10 numbers. With all signs pointing to a run first offense, and the return of bruising fullback Moran Norris, Gore should be the undisputed focal point of this offense. This team will play hard under coach Mike Singletary and stay in games, meaning Gore won't be phased out in the second half of games like in years past.
Standards Set: I see no reason he can't surpass 1,700 total yards and score 10 touchdowns if the 49ers follow through with their advertised offensive strategy.
Reason: Taking the safest running back on the board was our goal and that was Williams. Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook (ankle) is "da bomb" when healthy, but this year that is a major worry of mine. Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis has a lot of wear and tear, and I'm concerned about his ability to hold up at this point in his career. New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush simply looks great on paper, but that's about it as he can't stay healthy. In a nutshell the reason I took Williams because of his health. I do have concerns about Jonathan Stewart, but he is not a model of health with a toe issue last offseason and an Achilles' heel issue this offseason. He remained healthy last year because of the time share with Williams. I'll bank on Williams having another successful campaign as the Panthers remain a run-first team and have a massive chip on their shoulder after the embarrassing beatdown they took in the playoffs.
Others Considered: Westbrook and Portis. Bush was listed too high in the rankings so his name was looked at but never considered.
Standards Set: KFFL projects 262 rushing attempts, 1,336 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 24 receptions, 188 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown for Williams.
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