Fantasy football owners looking for an edge often turn to obscurities when seeking their moment of championship clarity. Sometimes said advantage can be found by checking out the third- and fourth-year wide receiver breakout theory. It generally takes a little longer for wide receivers to mature, and while there are always exceptions, wideouts often follow this trend.
|
Third-year wide receivers (2008 stats)
|
| Player |
Team |
Rec
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Prob. Grade
|
Notes |
| Dwayne Bowe |
Kansas City Chiefs |
86
|
1,022
|
11.9
|
7
|
N/A
|
Has already broken out; reliable target |
| Calvin Johnson |
Detroit Lions |
78
|
1,331
|
17.1
|
12
|
N/A
|
Has already broken out; can he dramatically improve? |
| Steve Breaston |
Arizona Cardinals |
77
|
1,006
|
13.1
|
3
|
N/A
|
Has already broken out but may be in for a down year |
| Anthony Gonzalez |
Indianapolis Colts |
57
|
664
|
11.6
|
4
|
5
|
Poised for a breakout season as the Colts' No. 2 wideout |
| Ted Ginn Jr. |
Miami Dolphins |
56
|
790
|
14.1
|
2
|
5
|
Poised for a breakout season but could suffer from Miami's lack of passing |
| Steve Smith |
New York Giants |
57
|
574
|
10.1
|
1
|
4
|
Needs a big year as a possession receiver - will be given the chance to replace Amani Toomer |
| Mike Walker |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
16
|
217
|
13.6
|
0
|
3
|
Injuries have derailed a promising career from this physical specimen; may break out in '09 |
| Chansi Stuckey |
New York Jets |
32
|
359
|
11.2
|
3
|
2
|
Has the talent and opportunity; QB issues could hold him back |
| Jason Hill |
San Francisco 49ers |
30
|
317
|
10.6
|
2
|
2
|
In a hodgepodge of WRs - future uncertain with so many weapons in the mix |
| Johnnie Lee Higgins |
Oakland Raiders |
22
|
366
|
16.6
|
4
|
2
|
Showed promise to close out the 2008 season; QB issues could set him back |
| Sidney Rice |
Minnesota Vikings |
15
|
141
|
9.4
|
4
|
2
|
Has been so-so through two years; better QB play can't hurt his cause; red zone threat |
| Robert Meachem |
New Orleans Saints |
12
|
289
|
24.1
|
3
|
2
|
One-trick pony as a deep threat; too many weapons in the offense could hold him back |
| Laurent Robinson |
St. Louis Rams |
5
|
52
|
10.4
|
0
|
2
|
Change of scenery could do him wonders; battling for the No. 2 job and could break out |
| Yamon Figurs |
Baltimore Ravens |
1
|
43
|
43
|
1
|
2
|
Retirement of Derrick Mason means he should get a shot as a No. 3 WR; is a deep threat only, though |
| Roy Hall |
Indianapolis Colts |
1
|
9
|
9
|
0
|
2
|
Battling Pierre Garcon for the No. 3 job in the Colts' prolific offense; could surprise fantasy owners |
| James Jones |
Green Bay Packers |
20
|
274
|
13.7
|
1
|
1
|
Good rookie year and a down sophomore season; '09 may be a make-or-break year |
| Aundrae Allison |
Minnesota Vikings |
10
|
109
|
10.9
|
0
|
1
|
Lost in the shuffle of wideouts; needs a lot to go his way to become a contributor; competing for a roster spot |
| Dwayne Jarrett |
Carolina Panthers |
10
|
119
|
11.9
|
0
|
1
|
Run-first offense has held him back; could emerge as the No. 2 receiver by 2010 |
| Courtney Taylor |
Seattle Seahawks |
9
|
98
|
10.9
|
0
|
1
|
Needs more reps and consistency at QB; a lot of WRs to battle for playing time |
| Legedu Naanee |
San Diego Chargers |
8
|
64
|
8
|
0
|
1
|
Has shown flashes; more of an H-back than a true WR |
| Craig Davis |
San Diego Chargers |
4
|
59
|
14.8
|
0
|
1
|
Major disappointment after being a first-round pick; needs to beat out Malcom Floyd for playing time |
| Jacoby Jones |
Houston Texans |
3
|
81
|
27
|
0
|
1
|
Injuries and inconsistency has hurt him; great special teams player; a long way to go as a receiver |
| Chris Davis |
Tennessee Titans |
2
|
31
|
15.5
|
0
|
1
|
Too many average receivers battling for time in a doldrum offense |
| Isaiah Stanback |
Dallas Cowboys |
2
|
24
|
12
|
0
|
1
|
Former QB adjusting to the position; could have a chance to step up with injuries at WR |
| Brandon Middleton |
Detroit Lions |
1
|
23
|
23
|
0
|
1
|
Will battle for a roster spot in a deep corps of wide receivers |
| Paul Williams |
Tennessee Titans |
1
|
7
|
7
|
0
|
1
|
Williams is one of several WRs battling to make the Titans' roster |
|
Fourth-year wide receivers (2008 stats)
|
| Player |
Team |
Rec
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TD
|
Prob. Grade
|
Notes |
| Brandon Marshall |
Denver Broncos |
104
|
1,265
|
12.2
|
6
|
N/A
|
Has already broken out and may be traded from the Broncos |
| Greg Jennings |
Green Bay Packers |
80
|
1,292
|
16.2
|
9
|
N/A
|
Developing into one of the most dynamic young receivers in the game |
| Lance Moore |
New Orleans Saints |
79
|
928
|
11.7
|
10
|
N/A
|
Showed signs of being a capable No. 2 in '08 but production dwindled upon Marques Colston's return |
| Marques Colston |
New Orleans Saints |
47
|
760
|
16.2
|
5
|
N/A
|
Broke out in Year 1; a great possession WR and a favorite target of QB Drew Brees; another fine year to come |
| Santonio Holmes |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
55
|
821
|
14.9
|
5
|
5
|
Amazing talent, but the Steelers' offense may hold him back; could be a huge year for him |
| Devin Hester |
Chicago Bears |
51
|
665
|
13
|
3
|
4
|
Technically entering his third year as a WR; could be a great deep threat with Jay Cutler's huge arm |
| Domenik Hixon |
New York Giants |
43
|
596
|
13.9
|
2
|
4
|
Should be given every chance to shine as the No. 1 WR in NY; needs more consistent hands |
| Greg Camarillo |
Miami Dolphins |
55
|
613
|
11.1
|
2
|
3
|
A great PPR possession receiver coming of an ACL reconstruction; ahead of schedule |
| Miles Austin |
Dallas Cowboys |
13
|
278
|
21.4
|
3
|
3
|
Has the size (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and speed to be a star; needs to stay healthy; battling for No. 2 job |
| Demetrius Williams |
Baltimore Ravens |
13
|
180
|
13.8
|
1
|
3
|
Expected No. 2 receiver; a physical talent but is oft-injured; could be a semi-breakout year for him |
| Hank Baskett |
Philadelphia Eagles |
33
|
440
|
13.3
|
3
|
2
|
Produces when called upon; too many other weapons in the offense to make him a legit fantasy option |
| Jason Avant |
Philadelphia Eagles |
32
|
377
|
11.8
|
2
|
2
|
Quality third-down option with reliable hands; too many other weapons leave him in the cold |
| Malcom Floyd |
San Diego Chargers |
27
|
465
|
17.2
|
4
|
2
|
A huge red zone target at 6-foot-5; quality hands but one of many, many receiving options |
| David Anderson |
Houston Texans |
19
|
241
|
12.7
|
2
|
2
|
Has shown flashes but isn't likely to break out in '09 with so many weapons on the roster |
| Brad Smith |
New York Jets |
12
|
64
|
5.3
|
0
|
2
|
At least the No. 3 receiver and could be the No. 2; former QB learning the position still; rookie QB holds him back |
| Maurice Stovall |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
3
|
25
|
8.3
|
0
|
2
|
Has the physical talent but needs to stay healthy; QB play could hamper his production, too |
| Ruvell Martin |
Green Bay Packers |
15
|
149
|
9.9
|
1
|
1
|
The No. 4 receiver, at best, in GB - not enough balls to go around to make him fantasy-relevant |
| Sinorice Moss |
New York Giants |
12
|
153
|
12.8
|
2
|
1
|
Battling to make the roster; always injured and doesn't have a great chance to break out |
| Jeff Webb |
Kansas City Chiefs |
5
|
46
|
9.2
|
0
|
1
|
Battling for playing time; has drawn praise from the past regime but needs to prove himself again |
| Glenn Holt |
Minnesota Vikings |
3
|
26
|
8.7
|
1
|
1
|
Competing for a roster spot and appears to be a long shot to make the team |
