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Some scary fantasy football ADPs for Friday the 13th
Horror movies have always been a passion of mine; from Jason Voorhees to Freddy Krueger to Michael Myers to Leslie Vernon (you need to see this one if you haven't), I just can't ever get enough. As a result, if only for the vast number of B- and C-level horror movies they show on Friday the 13th, I always smile a little when the calendar has a 13 fall on a Friday.
If you're looking for a good scare today, unfortunately there aren't fantastic flicks I can recommend to create a bloodcurdling scream. Instead, I offer up something far scarier than anything Edgar Allen Poe could have written: This year's fantasy football average draft position.
Some of these numbers are far more likely to keep me up all night than any noise coming from the closet or outside the window.
ADP 6.87 - Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns
I, like many others, love almost everything about Richardson. The only problem comes back to the situation he is in. He'll likely have a rookie quarterback at the helm, who won't garner any respect from defenses until he shows them he deserves it. The receivers are still a work in progress -- although there is a lot to like about second-year wideout Greg Little -- and the offense is, once again, in a transition.
KFFL's Nicholas Minnix recently questioned Richardson's high draft placement, too. In a poll in that piece, 61 percent of you voted Richardson won't be a top-six fantasy back this season. If the masses feel he won't be in the top tiers of running backs, why is he going in the top 10 of all positions combined?
ADP 12.68 - Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
I love Peterson. The guy is a beast ... when he has healthy wheels. Unfortunately, a significant knee injury late last season has his wheels very much in question. If any player can come back from such an injury with a vengeance, it's Peterson, which is why it appears fantasy owners are only downgrading him about 11 spots from where he went a year ago.
If he's 80 or 90 percent healthy at the start of the season, you just landed an undervalued player. Am I willing to take the chance at the end of the first round or start of the second without seeing him take hits in training camp and preseason games? Not so much.
Further complicating matters, the Vikings are not going to be a very strong team this season. Outside of Peterson and wide receiver Percy Harvin, the team lacks excitement offensively. The offensive line is still average, at best, while the jury is still out on second-year quarterback Christian Ponder and his ability to keep defenses honest. Even if he never suffered the injury, Peterson would have his work cut out for him again this year.
Unless Peterson somehow falls almost two whole rounds, finding him on any of my fantasy football rosters this year is highly unlikely. Not only do you need to worry about his health and the offensive woes in general, you also need to invest a relatively high draft pick on Toby Gerhart as the handcuff insurance option.
ADP 16.59 - Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
Mike Martz, the former offensive coordinator is gone, and while, on the surface, you'd think Mike Tice's system would be better for Forte, it's easy to forget that Martz's high octane offense was still very running back friendly when it came to combined yards from scrimmage. The Bears added a talented running back in Michael Bush via the free-agent market, who will steal touches and maybe goal line work, and they traded for receiver Brandon Marshall, who has a great rapport with quarterback Jay Cutler.
Even if Forte lands a new deal, reports on time and is completely in shape, there is enough of a concern that he won't be a top-10 fantasy football back this year.
ADP 22.25 - Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy football players seem to love their rookie runners this year almost as much as Jason loves those pretty girls in secluded cabins by Crystal Lake.
Martin has a ton of potential and enters a fairly attractive situation on a rebuilding Bucs team, but he very well could be the latest in a long line of rookie backs to stumble. There is also significant concern that he may split carries with third-year runner LeGarrette Blount, who has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. By the way, KFFL's Tim Heaney recently told you that you shouldn't ignore Blount in fantasy football drafts this year.
Investing a second-round selection in a back with more questions than answers at this juncture is a difficult one to swallow. While running backs will be hard to come by this year, I'd rather look for value than outrageously overspend.
ADP 24.09 - Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Gore is no stranger to having a knife used on him, but that's not what is scaring me so much these days. On the surface, the 49ers remain poised to be a run-oriented team. Gore's 1,211 yards rushing last year were his best since a 1,695-yard campaign in 2006. However, his receptions dropped to 17, his lowest (by a lot) since '05. The 49ers added Brandon Jacobs off the free-agent market and drafted talented LaMichael James in the second round of this year's NFL Draft. Plus, Kendall Hunter, who had 473 yards a year ago on the ground, also returns. There are just too many cooks in this kitchen for me, even if an ax falls on one of them later this summer when rosters are trimmed.
The 49ers also added weapons like Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and A.J. Jenkins to the passing game. While strong "D" and a power running game will remain the focus, we'd be silly to think these new weapons for quarterback Alex Smith are purely token additions. Look for them to try to open up the passing game this year.
All of these signs - plus that whole injury-riddled history - tell me a 24th overall placement for Gore is far too ambitious.
If you end up with any of those players anywhere close to their current ADP, I hope they don't come equipped with a machete chopping away at their fantasy football production all season.
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