We're back again with an either-or, and like previously, the reasoning behind each choice is just as relevant as the decision itself. The question is which player would be better for the rest of the season in standard 5x5 rotisserie mixed leagues.
David Price or Matt Moore?
Moore is a rock star right now. I think the big question is Price or R.A. Dickey, huh? Or Matt Cain -- curse of the Cy contenders?
Price: I see nothing about a glance at his numbers that says anything other than "corrections due." Moore still walks way too many for my taste, and there's some correction coming from the other direction, for him.
Don't think the correction for Moore will be crippling, but for reasons mentioned, Price's upward statistical and indicator mobility gives him the edge.
Perry Van Hook
I don't think either one will be as good as (most) fantasy players hoped at the draft table, but I will take Moore simply because the strikeout numbers will be higher.
Not so big one? Trout or ...
Looks like I get the deciding vote. Nick said it best for me -- Moore is still walking far too many. This will catch up and there will be a correction. Betting on an improved walk rate is risky business but yet we do it year after year. Price's velocity is down a bit, but his walk and strikeout rates are both in the neighborhood of their career marks. He's been absolutely croaked by a high BABIP and HR/FB. These should normalize which should result in a better ERA going forward.
WINNER: Price 3-2
Salvador Perez or Carlos Ruiz?
Like Perez, but LOVE Ruiz (wish I had not swapped him in my Strat league).
Perez: But only by the slightest of margins. Ruiz's history of mild or worse injuries leans me slightly toward Perez, whose knee injury in 2012 was more the result of a freakish incident. On the other hand, Ruiz plays in a somewhat better park for offense. Really, this is a toss-up for me, because my projections for them from here on out would be pretty similar.
Both will disappoint in the power column, but Perez's ability to make consistent, sound contact gives him the edge, despite Ruiz's more favorable home digs. As Nick stated, they'll have similar numbers from here on out, but Perez is less likely to go into a prolonged slump, and Ruiz might take another few weeks to get going at his typical pace. Ask me again in June for confirmation.
I like Perez to have a better average and more at-bats.
I'm with the guys -- this is real close and they profile similarly so you can't base it on needs. I'll take the younger and therefore more durable Perez. I am a little concerned, however, as he does not have an extended track record in the bigs so we are expecting the contact to return to its normal rate despite a limited track record establishing that perceived normal rate.
WINNER: Perez 4-1
Nolan Arenado vs. Aramis Ramirez AND Mike Trout vs. Bryce Harper!
About Todd Zola, MastersBall.com
Focusing primarily on the science of player valuation and game theory starting in 1997, Todd Zola and Mastersball carved out an important niche in the fantasy industry. In 2006, Todd became the Research Director for fantasybaseball.com, and in 2009, he relaunched Mastersball and is now a managing partner.
Todd competes in Tout Wars and the XFL, and has been a multiple-time league champion in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has been a contributor to the fantasy content at MLB.com and SI.com, is a frequent guest on Sirius/XM and Blog Talk Radio and is an annual speaker at the spring and fall First Pitch Forum symposiums.
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